Breaking News
Home / Today's Newsletter / Today’s Ratings and Advice 20/12/14

Today’s Ratings and Advice 20/12/14

Ron RobinsonAnother superb set of figures yesterday.

The first three races put us so far ahead it didn’t matter that the last couple failed to produce. What also has me looking forward to the end of the week is seeing how Gary’s “T” factor stats read after what was another successful day for those numbers. Two of those three successful races saw the top rated horses wearing that “T” and with their SP’s of 7/2 and 11/2 it has added further credence to the fact that we might have something here.

I still want a minimum of 12 weeks data compiled on them but now some seven weeks in, it’s looking good.

It is just as well we have opted to seek out profitable ways of working with the Ratings as our profits are being squeezed by virtue of small fields. I mentioned on the podcast yesterday that I cannot recall our last 20/1 top rated winner and that is purely and simply down to very few runners taking to the tracks.

Yesterday though was good. In fact, I’m extremely pleased with all aspects of what we are doing right now. The e.w. double even came good with Ray’s Diamond 7/2 and Milansbar both winning easily and producing a decent enough 9/1 double.

Last Saturday provided us with an average number of runners per race of less than seven. Today is oh so nearly as bad. If it were not for the Ladbroke, which has 19 runners, we’d have an average of 7.2 runners per race. Only three races, at the time of writing, offers up a double figure field and of the 20 races taking place, 10 of them offer e.w. punters only first two places betting.

It’s Saturday and that’s nothing like good enough.

ASSUMPTIONS:

Ascot / Sat 20 Dec
Updated @ Fri 19 Dec

Going/Track

Soft (GoingStick: Chase: 5.4. Hurdle: 5.4 on Friday at 09:30)

Rails: All bends have been moved out onto fresh ground increasing distances by approx. 20yds per circuit.

Weather

1.5mm rain overnight to 10.00am Friday. Showers now cleared. Saturday is forecast to be dry.

Haydock Park / Sat 20 Dec
Updated @ Sat 20 Dec

Going/Track

Heavy (GoingStick: Chase 5.0; Hurdle 5.5 on Saturday at 06:30)

Rails: Rail on the bend after the Winning Post is at the innermost position. Rail position at the bend out of the back straight will add approx 18 yards per circuit of that bend. for races over 2 Miles, add approx 18 yards. For races over 2m 4f and 3m, add approx 36 yards.

Weather

40mm of rain since Sunday, including 4mm on Friday. Forecast a mild, blustery day with showers.

Other

Due to the state of the ground, only four chase fences will be jumped in the back straight, the first fence in the back straight having been removed from the course.

Newcastle / Sat 20 Dec
Updated @ Sat 20 Dec

Going/Track

SOFT, Heavy in pls (GoingStick: 5.2 on Thursday at 16:00)

Rails: Rails and hurdle sites will be moved onto fresh ground. Approx added distances: 10yds added to 1m6f NHF & 2m races 14yds added to 2m4f races 18yds added to 2m6f & 3m races

Weather

Dry overnight & remains very breezy. Winds gusting to a max of 30mph at moment but set to drop a little as day progresses. Likely to remain dry however a strong head wind in home straight will make it hard work.

*  – indicates winner on ground at the time of rating the race
T – indicates having travelled more than 150 miles to race today
H – Indicates wearing some form of headgear for first time today

ASCOT 1-50

* – ULCK DU LIN….+14
* – BELENOS….+13
* – LANCETTO….+9
LAST SHOT….-5
* – KEY TO THE WEST….-11
BALLYGARVEY….-18
MALIBU SUN….-20

MY PLAY – Top pair will do for my bets….dutch, 20/80 ULCK DU LIN and an exotic.

ASCOT 3-00

* – HOUBLON DES OBEAUX….+9
* – HEY BIG SPENDER….+9
POLISKY….+9
* – UP TO SOMETHING….+9
* – SOUND INVESTMENT….+6
* – VIA SUNDOWN….-14
* – LE REVE….-16
THE YOUNG MASTER….-23
H – ARDKILLY WITNESS….-27

MY PLAY – Rated horses 1, 2 and 4 get the dutch and my top rated is the 20/80…exotics same trio.

ASCOT 3-30

T* – BAYAN….+15
* – ACTIVIAL….+15
* – SHELFORD….+10
FOXCUB….+8
COOL MACAVITY….+8
* – BALLYGLASHEEN….+8
BALGARRY….-4
* – GARDE LE VICTOIRE….-5
* – GOODWOOD MIRAGE….-6
* – PINE CREEK….-7
T – CLONDAW WARRIOR….-10
* – SWING BOWLER….-11
HELLO GEORGE….-14
JEBRIL….-29
GASSIN GOLF….-35
MINELLAFORLEISURE….-40
T – SEA BEAT….-40
T – PYROMANIAC….-40

MY PLAY – My top rated has actually been winking at me since I started prepping all the work for the weekend. Our Podcast competition winner for this weekend has £10 on at the best price I can find….I think we’ll beat SP!

I’m dutching my top three, going 20/80 BAYAN and having me those exotics.

HAYDOCK 12-00

T* – KUMBESHWAR….+9
GOOHAR….+9
JUST CAMERON….+/-0
SLEEPY HAVEN….-12
FAIRY ALISHA….-20
CIRCUS STAR….-20
T – ATTWAAL….-20
EMRAL SILK….-23

HAYDOCK 12-30

* – SUPREME ASSET….+11
T* – BACK TO BRACKA….+9
T* – GREYWELL BOY….+3
T – DE FAOITHESDREAM….-1
* – SHOOTERS WOOD….-5
T* – SUPRISE VENDOR….-11
* – WHISPERING HARRY….-15
STAGECOACH PEARL….-15

MY PLAY – The ground here is going to be as bad as it gets. I live about 45 minutes away and the weather we have had these last few days has been horrendous. Those taking part will need to handle proper mucky stuff and they’ve already removed on fence from the back straight because of “the state of the ground”.

I’m going to wait until i have watched that first rated race above before parting with a penny piece here.

By the off time of that last one here the ground will look like it has been prepped for planting rice and it’s just common sense to make sure it’s raceable before even suggesting a play.

HAYDOCK 2-05

T* – BROADWAY BUFFALO….+10
* – SAFFRON DE COTTE….+9
T* – FIREBIRD FLYER….+8
T* – BOLD SIR BRIAN….+7
* – FILL THE POWER….-6
HOWARD’S LEGACY….-11
* – TOBY LERONE….-15
RED ADMIRABLE….-15

HAYDOCK 2-40

KILCOOLEY….+8
T* – ABRACADABRA SIVOLA….+2
T – TAJ BADALANDABAD….-9
* – GETABUZZ….-14
T* – TAP NIGHT….-17
T* – RIVER DEEP….-26
* – CAFE AU LAIT….-28
RUN RUCTIONS RUN….-40
MUCKLE ROE….-40
DUNLOUGH BAY….-40

HAYDOCK 3-15

T – CLOSING CEREMONY….-27
* – AMERICAN LIFE….-30
* – MILLICENT SILVER….-34
OUR MAIMIE….-40
T – ARALDUR….-40
RED DANAHER….-40
T – ROLLING MAUL….-40

NEWCASTLE 1-40

* – EDMUND….+12
* – HABBIE SIMPSON….+9
* – AND THE MAN….+8
* – INDIAN VOYAGE….+2
* – UN GUET APENS….+/-0
FIRTH OF THE CLYDE….-4
RISKIER….-13

MY PLAY – It’s going to be attritional here today with not just testing ground but a monster of a headwind in their faces as they enter the home straight. I’m happy with my top rated because he’s got the least weight on his back!

If I bet here today it’s the top two for a dutch, 20/80 EDMUND and an exotic.

NEWCASTLE 2-15

SPIRIT OSCAR….+9
* – MORNING WITH IVAN….-5
* – NAUTICAL TWILIGHT….-11
T* – SULTANA BELLE….-21
PIXIE CUT….-29
BOBS LADY TAMURE….-40

MY PLAY – Much will depend on what I see going on earlier here as to whether or not I get involved but if I do, it’s rated horses 2&3 for everything.

Best of luck if you get involved.

Kindest regards

Ron

About Ron

Check Also

Today’s Ratings and OF INTEREST selections 09/11/17

One of the horses we were involved in runs for his new yard today. TOWER …