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Today’s Ratings and Advice 19/12/14

Ron RobinsonNot long to go now until the big day….just 81 days until the start of the Cheltenham meeting.

I know, I didn’t get that race up in the Cheltenham Files section again. Each morning I get up with a “plan” but things then happen that mean I have to start juggling. It WILL go up today!

I thought the figures yesterday were superb again.

EXETER 1-20

* – THUNDERING HOME….+20 – 2ND 8/1
* – SHAMMICK BOY….+11 – WON 7/2
* – RUGGED JACK….+9
RULL THE CHORD….+8
* – LOCHNAGAR….+6
T* – WADSWICK COURT….-3
HELIUM….-20

MY PLAY – My top three are priced to thrill if I’m right so I’ll run with it. Dutch, 20/80 THUNDERING HOME and exotics but any of my top six could win it and that “traveller” looked smart last season. Good little race.

EXETER 2-50

* – WAYWARD FROLIC….+17
TRICKAWAY….+8 – WON 3/1
THE HAPPY WARRIOR….-5
SUN WILD LIFE….-11
JUDGE DAVIS….-20
* – OLYMPIAN BOY….-29
TIQUER….-40
CASTLETOWN….-40

MY PLAY – I have one a mile clear on my numbers and i’d be confident the winner is in my top two. Having a win on the going sways me towards my top one so, a 20/80 WAYWARD FROLIC, a top two dutch and an exotic.

TOWCESTER 2-10

NEWTON THISTLE….+6 – WON 2/1 > 13/8
MONTY’S REVENGE….+3 – 3RD 6/1
ROYAUME BLEU….-4
* – LEGENDARY HOP….-7
* – SOMERBY….-13
T* – GIBBSTOWN….-15
T* – ROJO VIVO….-25
T – BANG ON TIME….-27
T – SHANNAN STAR….-40

MY PLAY – The best race here today but it’s a bit of a muddle. My top three have not yet won on this ground and I’m thinking rated horses 1, 4 and 5 for my usual way of betting but very much aware my bottom four have all used a tank of diesel to get here and two of them will enjoy underfoot conditions. Low staking whichever way i go.

TOWCESTER 2-40

COMICAL RED….-7
PADDYTHEOSCAR….-17
T – IFYOUTHINKSO….-17
KILCULLEN ARTICLE….-22
TOOT SWEET….-28
FLEMI TWO TOES….-36
T – PENNANT DANCER….-40
BLUE COVE….-40

MY PLAY – Not a single one of these has tasted victory when they’ve raced on this kind of ground so, it’s a toss of a coin….top three to October Rules or, nowt. I’ll decide later.

TOWCESTER 3-10

VINNIESLITTLE LAMB….+9
* – GRAND ARTICLE….-8 – NR
VERTUEUX….-10
* – THINGER LICHT….-11
WICKLEWOOD….-16
DROPZONE….-26
BALL HOPPER….-38
TOP BENEFIT….-40
I KNOW THE CODE….-40

MY PLAY – Rated horse 1, 2 and 4…dutch, 20/80 GRAND ARTICLE and exotics but staking to October Rules levels!

I have a few e-mails to catch up with from yesterday so if you are awaiting a response from me, I’ll hopefully get to you this morning.

I know one relates to the phrase “October Rules”. Everything relating to my terminology can be found in that section in “Racing” on the website but just to quickly run through that.

The months of October and April are those months during which the flat boys are winding down and the jump yards are sending out “sighters”, testing out the fitness of their strings. It is easier to find winners during those months simply by working with those yards ahead of the game….we’ll find them, don’t worry.

However, punting during both these months is best kept to the absolute minimum stakes when it comes to punting my rated races.

In brief, October Rules = top three dutch, a 20/80 my top rated and combo exotics the same three, to your absolute minimum stakes….unless I’ve opted to work with one better suited to the going etc.

ASSUMPTIONS:

    • Ascot / Fri 19 Dec
      Updated @ Thu 18 Dec

      Going/Track

      Soft (GoingStick: Chase: 5.8. Hurdle: 5.4 on Thursday at 08:15)

      Rails: All bends have been moved out onto fresh ground increasing distances by approx. 20yds per circuit.

    • Weather

      0.6mm rain overnight to 7.30am Thursday. Showers forecast again overnight to Friday, then remaining unsettled until mid morning. Saturday is forecast to be dry.

    • Uttoxeter / Fri 19 Dec
      Updated @ Fri 19 Dec

      Going/Track

      HEAVY (2 mile Chute – Some standing water but raceable with chute hurdle omitted) (GoingStick: 4.1 (Friday’s reading to follow) on Thursday at 07:30)

      Rails: Hurdles moved out by 4 yards from racing on 9th December, adding 20 yards to each circuit. Chute Hurdle Omitted in the 2 mile hurdle race. Divided bends moved on to fresher ground. Open Ditch (Fence 3) omitted in both chases. Chase fences reduced in width dolled off from inside.

    • Weather

      Dry Friday and Saturday. 5mm rain on Sunday evening. 2mm in sharp and heavy shower Monday afternoon. 10mm rain yesterday mainly late Tuesday into Wednesday. 1mm rain Wednesday night 5mm rain overnight Dry & breezy this morning and forecast to remain so with some sunshine possible!

*  – indicates winner on ground at the time of rating the race
T – indicates having travelled more than 150 miles to race today
H – Indicates wearing some form of headgear for first time today

ASCOT 3-05

SPARTAN ANGEL….+3
VALID REASON….+1
MIDNIGHT OSCAR….-8
* – LONG LUNCH….-16
* – KUILSRIVER….-16
* – LITTLE BOY BORU….-21
DREAM DEAL….-23
OSCAR PRAIRIE….-27
BATAVIR….-28
HARRY HUNT….-37
TUSCAN GOLD….-40

MY PLAY – I have to stick to my way of doing things and run with rated horses 3, 4 and 5….dutch, 20/80 LONG LUNCH and exotics but I’m expecting e-mail from those playing “old school” if my top three do the business.

UTTOXETER 1-10

T* – RAY DIAMOND….+13
* – MIDNIGHT CHARMER….+12
TH – TOKYO JAVILEX….-9
CRYSTAL SWING….-11
ONE FOR THE BOSS….-23
MONDO CANE….-38

MY PLAY – If the winner sits outside my top pair it’s bye bye money. ONE FOR THE BOSS is up 15lb for winning two at Leicester on good to soft and this is Uttoxeter on heavy….a totally different ball game. The trip is right for there favourite but three previous runs on heavy have resulted in form figures reading PU, 3rd of 4 and 6th of 8….I’d rather be with those proven on it.

UTTOXETER 1-45

* – MILANSBAR….+9
* – EXTREME IMPACT….-5
* – HOLLINS….-5
T* – QALINAS….-9
* – MANBALLANDALL….-19
TEOCHEW….-23
RAKTIMAN….-40

MY PLAY – Top pair…dutch, straight win my top rated and an exotic.

UTTOXETER 2-20

T – MILAN FLYER….+2
* – THORNTON ALICE….-7
BACK BY MIDNIGHT….-15
INSIDE KNOWLEDGE….-17
BARNEY RUBBLE….-20
HELAMIS….-22
UP YOUR GAME….-40
T – BUCKBORU….-40

MY PLAY – I’ll go with my top three to October Rules. at least I have one in there having won previously on the going they tell us they have here today….even if that was in 2011!!….it’s a pooch of a race and staking will be to October Rules levels.

UTTOXETER 2-55

* – MOHI RAHRERE….-4
* – VICTORY GUNNER….-6
* – ARMEDANDDANGEROUS….-14
WINGED CRUSADER….-16
* – BEAU DANDY….-20
TUSKAR ROCK….-29
* – WORK BOY….-35
DIXIE BULL….-38

MY PLAY – It simply has to be top three for the dutch, 20/80 MOHI RAHRERE and exotics.

Best of luck if you get involved.

Kindest regards

Ron

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