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Today’s Ratings and Advice 18/12/14

Ron RobinsonMake no mistake, for whatever reason the CoC at Ludlow put everyone away with his going description.

I was chatting to the owner of a winner there (One Cool Boy, who he bought for just £600), last night and I asked him about overnight rainfall. The BHA website had been advised just .5mm hit that track through the wee hours but I was advised that it had rained non-stop and that ground was bordering on heavy.

I had worked on good to soft, which was the going again advised to us early morning yesterday.

Barry Geraghty got off the first winner and said, “mostly soft and quite testing in places”. The times indicated heavy ground at best, on the hurdles track.

Why do the CoC’s do this?

My ratings were, therefore, useless and if you turned them on their heads, they made more sense.

GARY’S STATS

I mentioned recently that we would be monitoring the “T” factor….horses that had travelled a distance of over 150 miles to race, that figured in the ratings.

Gary has posted up his first set of findings and you can view them here.

I’d say most definitely something worth watching very, very closely. I’ll be happy once we have around 12 weeks of racing to look at and those figures are just two of them but, impressive nonetheless.

The OF INTEREST selections too are proving well worth following. Those stats can be seen here.

ASSUMPTIONS:

  • Exeter / Thu 18 Dec
    Updated @ Thu 18 Dec

    Going/Track

    Soft, Good to Soft in places (GoingStick: Chase 6.5, Hurdle 6.0 on Wednesday at 08:00)

    Rails: Shared bends, all races will be run on the Hurdle bend turning into the home straight. The Hurdle past the stands will be omitted

  • Weather

    1mm rain last 24 hours Forecast: Today Showers

  • Towcester / Thu 18 Dec
    Updated @ Wed 17 Dec

    Going/Track

    SOFT,Heavy in places (GoingStick: 7.6 on Wednesday at 08:30)

    Rails: Chase & Hurdle Courses using shared bends. Dolled out to middle line, adding approx 25 yards per circuit to all Race Distances.

  • Weather

    10mm Rain Overnight. Forecast to be mostly cloudy,breezy and mild Today, Temp +10c. Chance of showers Tomorrow.

*  – indicates winner on ground at the time of rating the race
T – indicates having travelled more than 150 miles to race today
H – Indicates wearing some form of headgear for first time today

EXETER 1-20

* – THUNDERING HOME….+20
* – SHAMMICK BOY….+11
* – RUGGED JACK….+9
RULL THE CHORD….+8
* – LOCHNAGAR….+6
T* – WADSWICK COURT….-3
HELIUM….-20

MY PLAY – My top three are priced to thrill if I’m right so I’ll run with it. Dutch, 20/80 THUNDERING HOME and exotics but any of my top six could win it and that “traveller” looked smart last season. Good little race.

EXETER 2-50

* – WAYWARD FROLIC….+17
TRICKAWAY….+8
THE HAPPY WARRIOR….-5
SUN WILD LIFE….-11
JUDGE DAVIS….-20
* – OLYMPIAN BOY….-29
TIQUER….-40
CASTLETOWN….-40

MY PLAY – I have one a mile clear on my numbers and i’d be confident the winner is in my top two. Having a win on the going sways me towards my top one so, a 20/80 WAYWARD FROLIC, a top two dutch and an exotic.

TOWCESTER 2-10

NEWTON THISTLE….+6
MONTY’S REVENGE….+3
ROYAUME BLEU….-4
* – LEGENDARY HOP….-7
* – SOMERBY….-13
T* – GIBBSTOWN….-15
T* – ROJO VIVO….-25
T – BANG ON TIME….-27
T – SHANNAN STAR….-40

MY PLAY – The best race here today but it’s a bit of a muddle. My top three have not yet won on this ground and I’m thinking rated horses 1, 4 and 5 for my usual way of betting but very much aware my bottom four have all used a tank of diesel to get here and two of them will enjoy underfoot conditions. Low staking whichever way i go.

TOWCESTER 2-40

COMICAL RED….-7
PADDYTHEOSCAR….-17
T – IFYOUTHINKSO….-17
KILCULLEN ARTICLE….-22
TOOT SWEET….-28
FLEMI TWO TOES….-36
T – PENNANT DANCER….-40
BLUE COVE….-40

MY PLAY – Not a single one of these has tasted victory when they’ve raced on this kind of ground so, it’s a toss of a coin….top three to October Rules or, nowt. I’ll decide later.

TOWCESTER 3-10

VINNIESLITTLE LAMB….+9
* – GRAND ARTICLE….-8
VERTUEUX….-10
* – THINGER LICHT….-11
WICKLEWOOD….-16
DROPZONE….-26
BALL HOPPER….-38
TOP BENEFIT….-40
I KNOW THE CODE….-40

MY PLAY – Rated horse 1, 2 and 4…dutch, 20/80 GRAND ARTICLE and exotics but staking to October Rules levels!

Best of luck if you get involved.

Kindest regards

Ron

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