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Today’s free rated race

Ron RobinsonI’ll not trust going descriptions of good, at this time of year, after yesterday.

Finding a race from the four I have rated, that I would trust to betting, is nigh on impossible as it’s pure dross but, a promise is a promise and if you really must bet today, this is probably the best of the four. In fact, you can have all four and pick one yourself!

FONTWELL 2-40

AFICIANADO….+8
* – THE SNEEZER….-6
* – MADAME DE GUISE….-18
MR FICKLE….-21
CARROWBEG….-36
KASATANI BEACH….-40
BAJARDO….-40
MY LORD….-40
TORERO….-40
JUMEIRA LIBERTY….-40

MY PLAY – I’ll work with my top three but with about as much confidence as a tightrope walker who has his feet tied together.

A top three dutch to October Rules levels of staking and the 20/80 of that play going to THE SNEEZER. No course experience, which can count for a lot here but he’s three from nine on the ground and is the only horse in this race that has won over the trip.

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OSOMOSIA….+9
* – HEAD SPIN….+4
* – MORESTEAD….+/-0
* – UPTON MEAD….-5
COOLBEG….-15
T – BOB WILL….-22
PETIT ECUYER….-40
SITTING BACK….-40

MY PLAY – Another race you’d simply not have extreme confidence in and that’s why this lot race at the level they do. Rated horses 2, 3 and 4 dutched, 20/80 HEAD SPIN and exotics but any confidence that did exist is tempered by the fact that one has had four previous attempts at winning here and come up short each time.

My top rated has won on four of the 19 occasions he has run here but any win over the trip has come elsewhere. Any horse that is just an E short and a couple of letters long of being an anagram for “a moose” is not carrying my shekels!

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* – WARSAW PACT….-26
HI BRONCO….-31
T – TAROUM….-38
BACK BY MIDNIGHT….-40
ASKER….-40
UNDERWOOD….-40
KINGSCOMBE….-40
JIGSAW FINANCIAL….-40
UPHAM RUNNING….-40

MY PLAY – JIGSAW FINANCIAL is 4-5 at the trip but no winning form on this ground and has never raced here before. If he handles track and going then yep, he may well live up to his current tissue position.

My top rated is slow….very slow but, that I can say he has a very real chance here is evidence that we are dealing with some shockers. Five previous attempts at winning here would suggest this place doesn’t play to any strengths he may have and as my fourth highest rated might well be appropriately named means anything below him is in serious trouble already, that may not matter to much.

I’ll go top three to October Rules.

UTTOXETER 2-20

* – ROSA FLEET….-4
* – MALLER TREE….-12
* – EMRAL SILK….-15
MILANSBAR….-18
STORM OF SWORDS….-21
FLANAGANS FIELD….-26
FILATORE….-40

MY PLAY – Rated horses 1 & 2…dutch, 20/80 MALLER TREE and an exotic. That one is 3-12 on the ground, 4-19 at the trip and those stats compare more than favourably with anything else lining up. My top rated is 1-3 on the ground, 1-2 at the trip but has had three previous visits to Uttoxeter and gone home with diddly.

That one sitting fourth has not been seen since Hadrian had just finished his bricklaying course and got cocky but the fact he’s as short as 6/1 on Betfair tells you plenty about this race, as does the fact that the front pair on the tissue have never won over obstacles.
Best of luck if you get involved.

Kindest regards

Ron

 

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