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Today’s Ratings and Advice 27/11/14

Ron RobinsonCongratulations to Harry Fry and his partner Ciara, on the birth of their first child, a daughter they have called Ruby.

I guess that’s better than Small…or French!

I read an interesting article on the BHA website yesterday relating to an increase of funding that will allow prize money down to eighth place in Class 2 race and down to sixth in lower grade races….only around £200 for the latter but, better than we have now.

It also mentioned that (and I have long felt this myself), the small fields we are seeing both on the flat and under the NH code are in part down to the huge costs in sending a horse racing. Trust me, having received the invoices from trainers after one of our has gone on a journey, I know just how expensive it all is.

This year I started adding a T icon to indicate horses that have travelled over 150 miles to go racing….a minimum round trip of 300 miles.

Did you see the results of the races yesterday that had two horses in each, bearing that icon? I actually missed one off but did mention in the text that the Pipe horse had put in a few miles!

WETHERBY 1-50

* – DUNOWEN POINT….+11
* – TIPTOEAWAY….+9
T* – BACK TO BRACKA….+9 – WON 4/1
QUICAYO….+1
T* – TRESOR DE BONTEE….-1 – 2ND 3/1
* – VASCO D’YCY….-9

MY PLAY – My top rated represents a stable bang out of form. Something certainly ails them right now and I couldn’t possibly have a single shekel on it. I’ll just watch.

WETHERBY 3-00

T* – SMILES FOR MILES….+10 – WON 5/6
* – CHICKLEMIX….+9
T – GREENLAW….-5 – 2ND 11/4
WHISKEY RIDGE….-9
WHAT A DREAM….-13
KAIKIAS….-25

MY PLAY – My top one has been sent on a round trip of 526 miles for a prize worth less than £4k and he’s odds on to have that diesel and training fees for this month sorted out. A no bet race for me.

I have added that missing T to the appropriate horse (the winner), so that you can see for yourselves that at this point in time, a trainer sending one out in midweek, to a track that requires a full tank of diesel, might indicate something. We are monitoring this here so we will be able to offer up something final as right now I’d not be 100% confident we have an edge from it.

Perhaps those in my top three rated, having travelled and that are favoured by the going might, long term, yield a profit? We’ll see.

DANCING SOLO

I’m not surprised we have nobody looking to go racing at Taunton today with Dancing Solo. The only name I had in the hat e-mailed me yesterday to ask for it to be taken out again and I guess a trip down there on a Thursday is going to be difficult to fit in.

She will go off a big price and my reading of the race is that Harry’s other horse, ASSAM BLACK, is the one we want to be with.

My guess is handicapping will be her game and we can look forward to being competitive in one of those.

If you are going to play a loyalty bet keep those stakes low!

As long as she comes home safe and sound it will be job done today.

TODAY

Three meetings this afternoon but again, we really are light on rated races. Just five to work with  but currently they all offer up up three places for those going in 20/80.

That’s a positive!

I’ve a few things to get finished here including my Podcast prep for what should be a great weekend of racing. Last week was “strange”. I had no races with anything like enough history to produce a Profile save for the race Faugheen won at long odds on….he would have been the Profile horse but I’d have been given pelters had I posted that up!

I actually have a race being run at Newbury tomorrow that fits the bill for profiling and I’ll have that up on the website this afternoon.

ASSUMPTIONS:

Newbury / Thu 27 Nov
Updated @ Wed 26 Nov

Going/Track

Hurdle course: Heavy, soft in places Chase course: Soft, Heavy in places (GoingStick: Hurdle 4.1 Chase 4.5 on Wednesday at 15:45)

Rails: Rails have been moved out wide on both courses 2m Hurdle & 2m nhfr abt 70yds further 3m 2f / 3m & 2m6 Chases abt 55yds further 2m 5f Hurdle 85yds further

Weather

Last 24 hrs 16.5mm Forecast: Wednesday Cloudy with patchy light rain. Thursday Cloudy but mainly dry.

Taunton / Thu 27 Nov
Updated @ Wed 26 Nov

Going/Track

Soft, Good to Soft in places (GoingStick: 4.8 on Wednesday at 06:30)

Rails: Rail moved by approx 2 metres. Shared bend out of home straight, divided bend into home straight. Hurdles moved outwards by 2 sections. Configuration of bends adds approx 45 metres per circuit to chase course

Weather

2mm Friday, 9mm Saturday, dry on Monday, 8mm yesterday and overnight. Light rain at times today and dry tomorrow.

Uttoxeter / Thu 27 Nov
Updated @ Thu 27 Nov

Going/Track

Thursday’s update Going to follow CHASE: Heavy, Soft in places HURDLE: Soft, Heavy in places (Heavy in 2 mile chute) (GoingStick: 3.9 (Thursday’s reading to follow) on Wednesday at 07:15)

Rails: Hurdles moved to inside Fences Opened up on inner Divided bends

Weather

16mm rain Friday and Saturday 4mm Tuesday night 4.5mm in last 24 hours (mainly overnight) Overcast with the possibility of further light rain but nothing too significant

*  – indicates winner on ground at the time of rating the race
T – indicates having travelled more than 150 miles to race today
H – Indicates wearing some form of headgear for first time today

NEWBURY 3-15

L’AMI SERGE….+1
* – ASTRE DE LA COUR….-7
* – LE MERCUREY….-16
VIOLET DANCER….-29
T* – WICKLOW BRAVE….-35
T* – DANEKING….-35
KILCOOLEY….-39
MINELLAFORLEISURE….-40

MY PLAY – I came close to calling this one off. Trying to work out French and Irish horses is hard enough at the best of times and this looks all over the place. Another I myself can only watch I’m afraid and I’ll be concentrating on the OF INTEREST selections.

TAUNTON 3-25

BALLYREGAN….+9
* – ROSENEATH….-5
* – KILCASCAN….-5
BOB WILL….-12
* – BALLY GUNNER….-15
SHANNAN STAR….-22
WISHES AND STARS….-24
SPENCER MOON….-28

MY PLAY – The two rated races here….that one just underneath has joined those to be judged as worst race of the 2014-2015 NH season….will be completely swerved at this end. I’ll watch, just to see if my figures are anywhere near right and could be applied to rat racing.

My top rated is miles clear on numbers but ground is potentially an issue. However, it has not been lost on me that both wins under rules have come on good to soft and, there were three years between them!

My second highest rated returns after an absence, last won on good ground in the summer of 2013 and prior to that had visited the winners enclosure when we still had gas street lighting.

Ok, that’s an exaggeration but, you see what I’m saying!….and the one below is even worse.

TAUNTON 4-00

* – WORLDOR….-8
CANARBINO GIRL….-16
ANNAROE….-21
MINISTER OF MAYHEM….-28
H – ORDENSRITTER….-37
PENNIES AND POUNDS….-37
SIRRAH STAR….-40
SHOT IN THE DARK….-40
WOLFE MOUNTAIN….-40

MY PLAY – I refer you to the comments made above! This is absolutely shocking and to the owners of  those taking part, I doff my cap. It takes a rare breed to pay £2000 per month to keep such horses in training/racing and it can only be for the love of the sport.

UTTOXETER 1-55

* – ACAPULCO BAY….+10
* – LISDONAGH HOUSE….-1
T – LADY GARVAGH….-11
NOLECCE….-21
SUMMERTIME LADY….-31
LADY RA….-40
PRINCE FREDDIE….-40
STAG HILL….-40

MY PLAY – A straight win my top rated and that’s my only play here. He has not won for the best part of two years but three of his last four wins have been for today’s pilot and this is a complete pooch of a race. My stake will not have the people taking it rushing to the phones to inform the trading rooms that something might be afoot.

UTTOXETER 2-30

* – CHESTERTERN….+11
* – ROUQUAINE SAUVAGE….+9
* – BOOMTOWN….-7
L FRANK BAUM….-17
MORTLESTOWN….-32
HOLLINS….-34
T – GURKHA BRAVE….-40
SAFARI JOURNEY….-40

MY PLAY – I have two miles clear on my numbers. One of them will win it and most likely, it’s my second highest rated. He is officially 5lb well in here after a recent win and, he’s getting 10b off my top rated who makes his debut here for Warren Greatrex, coming back off an absence of 281 days and having pulled up on his last two runs. Not surprisingly ROUQUAINE SAUVAGE is odds on to follow up and this is one I’ll just watch.
Best of luck if you get involved.

Kindest regards

Ron

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