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Today’s Ratings and Advice 24/11/14

Ron RobinsonVery pleased with my work yesterday and that lone OF INTEREST selection, Thundering Home (7/1), did that section of the Newsletter proud. It actually performed well over the entire weekend with four winners from six selections and Friday, Saturday and Sunday has produced six winners from eight.

HIGHLAND RETREAT

Four runner races invariably produce the wrong result and that happened to your horse yesterday.

I take the form of such races with a pinch of salt and Highland will be much better with a stronger pace as her jumping, which was superb, will come more into play.

I will get back to you with Harry’s thoughts as soon as they come through.

TODAY

Just there two meetings and three rated races this afternoon on what is an exceptionally quiet day. What I will be doing today is introducing a section into the website called The Cheltenham Files. It is a section that will be updated once or twice a month and the idea is to have an ante-post portfolio built long before we get to March. This will become part of The Cheltenham Special package.

Our NH season is geared 100% to those few days in March and I want us ready to extract profits from the layers.

I have a feeling in my bones that this could be the best Festival in many a long year.

We have a horse racing today that I honestly thought would be a superstar last season. West Wizard runs in the first at Kempton and will not be a working mans price but I’m hoping he proves my thinking he would be a top novice last season correct this time around.

Henderson and Geraghty could have a bit of a beano there this afternoon and I am looking to Polly Peachum to boost the form of 500 Club horse Blue Buttons in the Listed Hurdle.

ASSUMPTIONS:

  • Kempton Park / Mon 24 Nov
    Updated @ Sun 23 Nov

    Going/Track

    Soft, Heavy on bend adjacent to lake (GoingStick: Chase 4.8; Hurdle 4.6 on Sunday at 10:45)

    Rails: Dual bend alignment beyond winning post. All rail moved out 2 yards on to fresh ground. All distances as advertised

  • Weather

    16mm of rain overnight and a further 8mm up to 10.45am and still raining. Forecast: Sunday; spells of rain now likely for most of the day, 5mm to 10mm Monday; periods of sunshine with max temp +8

  • Ludlow / Mon 24 Nov
    Updated @ Sun 23 Nov

    Going/Track

    Good to soft, soft in a few places (GoingStick: 6.4 on Saturday at 08:45)

    Rails: Fresh bends. Hurdles on the outside.

  • Weather

    4mm on Monday. We had a dry rest of week. Had 12mm on Friday/Saturday am . Dry Saturday but 2mm overnight. Forecast drizzle this am then dry till racing.

*  – indicates winner on ground at the time of rating the race
T – indicates having travelled more than 150 miles to race today
H – Indicates wearing some form of headgear for first time today

KEMPTON 1-35

ALBEROBELLO….-9
NEVILLE….-16
MISTER SNOWBALL….-19
MALIBU ROCK….-20
ONE MORE TUNE….-31
MY LORD….-39
LETEMGO….-40
SILMI….-40

MY PLAY – Not a single one has won previously on the going as currently described, those that have visited this track before all went home empty handed and only one has won previously over this trip….my top rated….and he’s only done it once from seven attempts.

Nothing spots up a + figure and there are two ways of looking at this. Top three to October Rules or, just watch. I will probably opt for the latter.

KEMPTON 2-45

* – KING EDMUND….+11
* – VISION DES CHAMPS….-2
* – REAL MILAN….-9
* – TENOR NIVERNAIS….-10
* – FRONTIER SPIRIT….-13
* – BENEFIT CUT….-17
LORD LANDEN….-25
ROC D’APSIS….-34

MY PLAY – My top rated ran just three days ago but he’s tough as old boots and given he had no chance with that winner, who is laid out annually to win that race, he’s run a cracker, the third placed horse well beaten off.

He’s 11 now but still very consistent and I expect him to run a sound race if he has recovered from that one. I’ll just be having a nice 20/80.

LUDLOW 2-20

T* – IT’S A MANS WORLD….+8
* – LAST SHOT….-1
SIR VALENTINO….-9
* – ARKAIM….-15
* – LE BACARDY….-15
OYSTER SHELL….-18
SATO….-24

MY PLAY – Both tracks today will be getting some rain, my guess….and it is just a guess….is that it’ll be heavy here by off time and if that’s the case, all bets are off. Right now though I’m looking to dutch my top pair, go 20/80 my top one and throw an exotic at it.
Best of luck if you get involved.

 

Kindest regards

Ron

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