Breaking News
Home / Today's Newsletter / Today’s Ratings and Advice 23/11/14

Today’s Ratings and Advice 23/11/14

Ron RobinsonI got home around 9-00pm last night exhausted. I had intended sitting down for a couple of hours setting up the pro for today, watching the racing I had missed but it was a quick cup of tea, hitting the sack around 9-45pm.

I’ll be watching all races today but the one result above all I had been looking out for was that little novice hurdle race at 1-05pm, Gowran Park.

In January of this year, whilst I was enjoying the hospitality of the NHS, I had advised members of a horse they should be looking out for called TELL US MORE.

It ran just once that season and won, then was put away. Before this season really got into gear I told everyone listening that they should visit the website as I had put up a Cheltenham ante-post advice. That advice was to get on TELL US MORE for the Neptune.

Yesterday the horse made it’s seasonal debut and, again whilst I have yet to see the race, he has by all accounts absolutely dotted up.

Wille Mullins has been quoted after yesterdays race as saying, “he could be top drawer”. Trust me, he is. Boylesports now go 14/1 for the Neptune.

A few days ago one of our members (good morning, Vipin), e-mailed me to ask if I had a horse for Cheltenham that he could use to take up an offer Paddy Power were posting up. I had no hesitation is getting straight back advising this horse, for that race.

I hope a host of you are on.

Obviously they could eventually point the horse at a different race but I explain in the text on that webpage just why I believe the Neptune will be the race they target and I’m still happy with my reasoning.

YESTERDAY’S RATINGS AND ADVICE

Never one to hide from a good or bad day at the office we should take a look back at how things went yesterday

ASCOT 1-30

* – MINI MUCK….+11 – 5TH 11/1
GAYE MEMORIES….+9
COVE….-2 – 2ND 8/1
* – WOODLAND WALK….-14 – 3RD 5/1
SPARTAN ANGEL….-22 – 4TH 7/1
DARK SPIRIT….-24 – WON 2/1
IRON BUTTERFLY….-30
T – GRAPE TREE FLAME….-31
HI NOTE….-40
MAGIC MONEY….-40
H – BILIDN….-40

MY PLAY – Top pair with WOODLAND WALK for a dutch. I’ll set up a 20/80 my top one and maybe look at exotics, too.

RESULT – Happy enough to find the first five home in my top six rated horses but from a punting point of view, I lost money.

ASCOT 3-15

* – BELLENOS….+15
* – OSCAR HILL….+9 – 4TH 8/1
* – BRICK RED….+9 – 6TH
* – LANCETTO….+8 – 2ND 10/1
* – ULCK DU LIN….-4
* – CHRISTOPHER WREN….-6 – 3RD 14/1
* – PARSNIP PETE….-12
* – GREY GOLD….-16 – 5TH 6/1
* – CROCO BAY….-25 – WON 8/1
FAIR DILEMMA….-29

MY PLAY – Very happy with my numbers and it’s top three for everything….usual play.

RESULT – Four of my top six rated in the first six home but if the winner is where it is, it’s academic really. Not unhappy with my figures but not happy, either. A bit “all over the place”, this one.

HAYDOCK 12-10

* – MOUJIK BORGET….+1
* – ZAFRANAGAR….-2 – 3RD 12/1
T – VASCO DE RONCERAY….-11 – WON 2/1
* – LIGHNING ROD….-15 – NR
* – MOHAWK RIDGE….-15
DE BOITRON….-24 – 2ND 33/1
T – PLUS JAMAIS….-31
GETABUZZ….-39
KEEL HAUL….-40

MY PLAY – Rated horses 1, 2 and 4….dutched, a 20/80 my top rated and exotics.

RESULT – Winner in my top three, and that trio producing two of the first three home but a punting disaster really, from my point of view. Smiling through gritted teeth at it actually.

HAYDOCK 12-45

* – LOUGHALDER….+10
* – BENNYS WELL….+1
* – NO DUFFER….-6 – 3RD 3/1
EMPEROR’S CHOICE….-13 – 2ND 11/2
* – WELLFORTH….-21
* – SOUDAIN….-25
* – SIXTY SOMETHING….-25
T* – DARK GLACIER….-28
T – GAS LINE BOY….-33 – WON 9/2

MY PLAY – I’ll simply accept my numbers are fine and work with my top three again. After the way things have gone this week, I’d be a fool not to do so.

RESULT – Figures anything but fine and I am going to revisit this one after I have watched it back. Only three finishers in a race I’m assuming was run on soft? All very strange.

HAYDOCK 1-15

* – YESYOUCAN….+10 – 6TH 16/1
* – CALCULATED RISK….+10
T* – HEATH HUNTER….+9
T* – LYVIUS….+6 – 5TH 16/1
T* – DAWALAN….-1 – 4TH 9/2
* – VIVA COLONIA….-4
T – ON TOUR….-11 – WON 7/1
* – RUN RUCTIONS RUN….-14 – 2ND 16/1
T* – MORITO DU BERLAIS….-17 – 3RD 9/4
T* – ALCO….-25
H* – MEADOWCROFT BOY….-25
* EMRAL SILK….-35

MY PLAY – My top rated is a monster price and deservedly so given its recent form but I have what I have and I’ll again simply play my numbers as they have fallen.

HAYDOCK 2-25

* – TRUSTAN TIMES….+16
T* – VIEUX LION ROUGE….+9
* – SPIRIT OF SHANKLY….+9
T* – KATKEAU….+5 – 5TH 11/2
KINGMERE….+3
* – OSCAR ROCK….-1
* – SYBARITE….-2 – 6TH 14/1
T* – VOLNAY DE THAIX….-11 – 4TH 3/1
T* – AWAYWITHTHEGREYS….-15
ONE FOR HARRY….-15
T – BIG EASY….-20 – 2ND 13/2
T* – AUBUSSON….-22 – WON 9/1
T – DARA TANGO….-22 – 3RD 20/1
T* – ARALDUR….-33
T* – UNCLE JIMMY….-36
UPSWING….-37
SHIMLA DAWN….-40

MY PLAY – I had hoped to see VOLNAY DE THAIX sitting top because he was mighty impressive last time up and a lovely winner for us then. In the podcast i suggested he’d most likely pop out top but nope, he’s some way down the pecking order on Ratings. If Katkeau doesn’t bounce he looks, on figures, to have a good chance of following up but, I’m again going to put the trust in what I’ve produced and it’s a top three dutch, a 20/80 TRUSTAN TIMES and exotics.

RESULT – If I had tried I could not have got this more wrong. Sean gave DARA TANGO up as a big priced e.w. alternative to the favourite in the podcast on Friday and that has run very well for him.

On the 26th October I had that winner top rated at Chepstow and it ran a cracker for me, finishing 2nd @ 7/1. It was also the Profile horse that day, too. He is clearly an improving 5-y-o and I’m again going to revisit this race after watching it back.

From the point of view of ratings…awful.

HAYDOCK 3-35

T – MASTERS HILL….+11
* – MISTER MARKER….+9
T* – SHOTAVODKA….+8 – 5TH 5/1
* – FORGOTTEN GOLD….+8 – 4TH 25/1
* – RENARD….+2 – 2ND 7/1
ACCORDING TO TREV….+/-0 – WON 10/1
T* – MIDNIGHT APPEAL….-6 – 3RD 6/1
* – LACKAMON….-7 – 6TH 12/1
* – ROSE OF THE MOON….-15
PINEROLO….-16
* – WAYWARD PRINCE….-18
T – GLENQUEST….-31

MY PLAY – This is a cracking good race and I’m going to work with rated horses 2, 3 and 4….and if top rated punters strike gold again then I’ll be a loser. If that one handles the ground he’ll be mighty competitive and his trainer has a brilliant record with horses he sends to this track.

Dutch, 20/80 MISTER MARKER and exotics the three I have opted for though and we’ll see who comes out smiling.

RESULT – Again, nearly as many puled up as finished and I am, without having seen it yet, really wondering about the going here. Any opinions yourself?

If that were a dart board you’d be thinking, “great grouping!”….

HUNTINGDON 2-50

* – CARMELA MARIA….-2 – 4TH 8/1
* – ELEGANT OLIVE….-7
MINELLA BLISS….-15 – 2ND 3/1
FLEMI TWO TOES….-25 – 3RD 9/2
KINGSCOMBE….-38
AMBERJAM….-40 – WON 3/1
RISING TEAL….-40
T – AGESILAS….-40

MY PLAY – It’s a bit like walking from the sunshine into a storm….this is very poor fodder. I’ll just work with my top two and if I score a result I’ll be chuffed.

RESULT – Those that completed the course have finished strung out all over Huntingdon. It was a bad race before they started racing and it’s even worse now!

I am finding the last two weekends a real chin rubber. Last weekend every winner was saw had never won on the going as was described that day and, yesterday, six of the eight races were again won by horse never having previously succeeded on the ground they encountered.

All very strange.

TODAY

We have four people going racing with Highland Appeal at Exeter and this morning I will be e-mailing the other 27 of you that were unlucky in the draw for badges/tickets. I have never had so many people wanting to go racing as 500 Club members for one race before and it’s quite clear we have to do something about this, and quickly.

I will be looking at several options that will increase the opportunity for members to go racing.

Highland Appeal is currently trading 2.2 and looks a rock solid favourite. Harry was very keen to get her racing today as she’s very well in herself and needs to race so, it’s all very positive. I think our members may well be having a glass of bubbly come 2-50pm….I hope so.

Sean Trivass cannot make this one I’m afraid so if one of our members could supply some pics of the day and some smiling faces in the winners enclosure, that would be really appreciated!

As i have stated previously, this is not a “gambling” yard. We will never get a “nudge, nudge, wink, wink fill your boots” situation here. Harry is 100% straight down the line. His horses go to the races to win their races. It’s as simple as that.

We have three rated races from each of the meetings taking place at Exeter and Fakenham. The going at Exeter will be seriously heavy so those going, take your wellies!

EXETER 1-05

* – BREDON HILL LAD….+3
MYSTIC APPEAL….-1
UNE FILLE DE GUYE….-4
LEGION D’NONNEUR….-10
STRATEGIC EXIT….-20
HAVERSTOCK….-22
H – AROSEFOROSCAR….-25
BRANTINGHAM BREEZE….-25
WARSAW PACT….-28

MY PLAY – The ground here will be murder and as my top rated is the only one having a win on it’s CV when it’s riding like this, I’ll indulge in a small 20/80 and that’s my lot.

EXETER 1-35

LUNDY SKY….-9
LOOK FOR LOVE….-10
T* – FLASH CRASH….-13
OBISTAR….-19
* – ABSOLUTELY BYGONES….-20
TARA TAVEY….-35

MY PLAY – Again we see just two of this motley crew having won previously on a bog and as they’ve sent a horse box down from Lewes….near 400 mile round trip…. I’ll assume they’ll be looking for the diesel costs to be covered if nothing else and go 20/80 FLASH CRASH.

EXETER 2-05

BARTON GIFT….+17
* – STORM ALERT….+11
* – BIG SOCIETY….+9
* – ROLL THE DICE….+9
* – JUPITER REX….+8
MIDNIGHT LIRA….-1
* – RUSSE BLANC….-7

MY PLAY – My top rated has tried winning on this ground on four previous occasions and come up short. Track no issue as he’s 1-2 here but I’m also not sure this is his trip. One of those horse most likely to pull up rather than complete but, he’s won when he does and his jockey is in blinding form right now.

JUPITER REX will love the ground (3-5 on it) and the trip (4-5 over it) but, he has been to Exeter three times now and come away with diddly.

I’ll dutch that trio underneath Barton Gift, go 20/80 STORM ALERT and consider the exotics.

TOWCESTER 1-15

* – LE GRAND CHENE….-20
* – KILFINNAN CASTLE….-26
CARHUE PRINCESS….-34
* – ACCORDING TO THEM….-35
WHEELAVHER….-38
RED ANCHOR….-40
GAINSBOROUGH’S ART….-40
I KNOW THE CODE….-40

MY PLAY – A complete dog of a race. If…big if…I play it’s that trio marked * to October Rules.

TOWCESTER 2-15

* – RINGA BAY….+8
* – UNION D’YCY….+8
* – MUSICAL WEDGE….-5
* – WINDS AND WAVES….-15
* – FRIENDLY SOCIETY….-28
WOLF HALL….-40
BIG GENERATOR….-40

MY PLAY – Top pair getting the clogs on and a smidgeon of gouda with a 20/80 RINGA BAY and an exotic.

TOWCESTER 2-45

CADEAU GEORGE….+18
LOCK TOWERS….+12
* – ROYALE KNIGHT….+9
* – JAUNTY JOURNEY….-2
WALDORF SALAD….-7
H – WESTAWAY….-14
* – AMERICAN LIFE….-20
T – CHAVOY….-30
MALIBU ROCK….-32

MY PLAY – I’m still not sure whether my top rated comes here or takes on your horse in the 2-35 at Exeter. I cannot imagine they fancy trying to give Highland Retreat 7lb in the mud down there and equally, i think the ground here may play more to the strengths of ROYALE KNIGHT, who most definitely is my 20/80 here.

That may well be my only play as I’m more than happy running with that horse given his record of 3-8 on soft, 1-4 over the trip and a 100% track record (1-1)….at the track.
Best of luck if you get involved.

 

Kindest regards

Ron

About Ron

Check Also

Today’s Ratings and OF INTEREST selections 09/11/17

One of the horses we were involved in runs for his new yard today. TOWER …