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Today’s Ratings and Advice 19/11/14

Ron RobinsonA wonderful evening in the presence of Mr Bocelli. If you ever get an opportunity to attend one of his concerts, do not pass it up.

Got to my pillow around 11-30pm, the Monks started chanting at 4-50am and it’s back to reality.

I was extremely pleased with how the Ratings performed yesterday and the one bit of advice posted up in the OF INTEREST section duly obliged, too. Only 6/4 but when you are getting after an odds on shot in a three runner race also, it’s pleasing enough.

My own decision making right now resembles that of Frank Spencer. In the last three days I have missed punting winners at 14/1 (paid 18.05 BFSP), 5/1 and 4/1.

The best of yesterday’s quartet….

FAKENHAM 1-00

RUBY VALENTINE….+6 – WON 14/1 (18.05 BFSP)
SEASIDE SHUFFLE….+5 – 3RD 4/1
* – THE OMEN….-5 – 2ND 10/11
INSIDE KNOWLEDGE….-16
MAROOD….-24
H – OSORIOS TRIAL….-27

MY PLAY – I’ll not be. I expect my third highest rated to prove up to the job as the pair above need the ground better than this.

Thank you very much indeed to those that have kindly rubbed this old nose in it by informing me of your successes! How pleased I was to hear of the member that got 8/1 about that other Frank a couple of days ago. No, really, i was!

RESULT – All four previous wins by my top rated (an 11 year old), had come on much better ground so I think it fair to say those that took the odds on about the favourite were on a moose and going over hurdles having been chasing really does change things but….does anyone really back odds on in sellers?

One member has brilliantly described what I’m currently doing on the Post Racing Facebook wall. “Polishing the….”….well, I’m sure you cotton on.

TODAY

I start work on the Podcast content, have a chat to Sean about his morning with Harry Fry yesterday and the article he’ll be producing for the website, let you know of the surprise entry Harry has made for the potential chasing superstar 500 Club members are involved in and get my prep done for tomorrow….whilst hopefully turning a profit from the racing taking place at Hexham and Warwick.

Quite one then!

The ground up Hexham way will be what is now becoming the most overused word on ATR….attritional. I watched War Horse again a couple of nights ago and he’d have found that easier than what they may face this afternoon.

If you can, watch the first few races before taking an active betting part in proceedings.

ASSUMPTIONS:

Hexham / Wed 19 Nov
Updated @ Tue 18 Nov

Going/Track

HEAVY

Rails: Bends will be moved & selected hurdles will be resited

Weather

Dry overnight & has remained the same all day Tues. 40mm of rain since Fri. 27mm of which fell on Sun into Mon. Will be extremely testing.

Other

Saddling boxes back in use! Fence 7 (top of hill) will be omitted for all chases.

Warwick / Wed 19 Nov
Updated @ Tue 18 Nov

Going/Track

Soft, Heavy in places (GoingStick: 5.1 Chase, 5.2 Hurdle on Tuesday at 08:00)

Rails: Home bend and rail down the hill out 1yd adding approximately 3yds to circuit distance.

Weather

10.2mm rain Friday, 1.6mm Sunday, 5.4mm Monday. Forecast: Mostly dry with some sunny spells through Tuesday & Wednesday.

*  – indicates winner on ground at the time of rating the race
T – indicates having travelled more than 150 miles to race today
H – Indicates wearing some form of headgear for first time today

HEXHAM 2-20

MRS GRASS….+8
* – DUN TO PERFECTION….-6
* – W SIX TIMES….-8
* – LISDONAGH HOUSE….-12
* – WILLIE HALL….-13
A SOUTHSIDE BOY….-17
ALLEZ COOL….-20
GARTH….-23
H – LACHLAN MOR….-25
KING’S CHORISTER….-26
BIRTHDAY GUEST….-35

MY PLAY – My top one is clear on my numbers but three previous attempts on ground like this suggest it’s not ideal.

This is by no means a stepping stone to superstardom for any of the protagonists and I envisage a few white flags being hoisted before the winner goes past the post but I will be surprised if my winner is not one of those bearing the * icon.

Dutch the three highest rated of them, a 20/80 DUN TO PERFECTION (might describe me come 2-30pm) and exotics.

HEXHAM 3-20

H* – TIKKANDEMICKEY….+13
VOYAGE A NEW YORK….+11
* – PISTOL….-4
* – PERSIAN HERALD….-9
* – HUNTERS BELT….-12
TH – GLENCONKEYNE….-13
WALSER….-20
COUSIN GUILLAUME….-23
SUPER COLLIDER….-28
FUNKY MUNKEY….-39
MCVICAR….-40

MY PLAY – My top rated loves this place, only once out of the first three in seven appearances and then he finished fourth.

The problem for me is going to be the ground. He has won on heavy but I fear this may be worse than that and by the time they get to this race 29 other hurdlers will have taken the opportunity to plough it up a bit.

I’m going to dutch my three highest rated horses marked *, go 20/80 my top one and set up my exotics if feasible.

WARWICK 12-40

* – JAYO TIME….+11
FREE OF CHARGE….+1
* – HALO MOON….-7
* – SCALES….-10
* – EXPANDING UNIVERSE….-15
SHEAR ROCK….-15
* – HEURTEVENT….-16
JOIN THE NAVY….-20
MONT ROYALE….-34
H – YES I WILL….-40

MY PLAY – I’m just going 20/80 my top one here. We have a beast sitting sixth best on my numbers making handicap debut for Charlie Longsden and I have no idea how good or otherwise it is. I’m pretty confident I’ll drag a small profit off my “80” if SHEAR ROCK is good enough to make my numbers look silly.

WARWICK 3-10

* – THE LAST RIDGE….-15
MONTY’S REVENGE….-19
* – SOMERBY….-27
* – CHAC DU CADRAN….-35
HIGH ASPIRATIONS….-40
CHEAT THE CHEATER….-40

MY PLAY – Dare I suggest this is the worst race of the day? It is of those I have looked at for the purposes of Rating, I promise you! Half of those named above failed to complete last time up, one has been on the MIA list for 228 days and it’s last four form figure resemble the start of a very bad Scrabble rack.
I might just dutch my top pair marked * and light candles.
Best of luck if you get involved.

 

Kindest regards

Ron

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