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Today’s Ratings and Advice 15/11/14

Ron RobinsonAll I could hear yesterday afternoon was Jimmy Greaves. “It’s a funny old game, Saint”.

We all knew it was going to rain. It’s that time of year anyway. Cheltenham copped for 10mm and we lost our ground. It doesn’t matter how long you spend working on a race, if you are working on the basis you have good ground, and it goes soft (very soft), you’ve got a problem.

Then along comes the sun. Stick with this, please!

We had a really good Novice Chase to watch yesterday….or did, until the sun came along.

It became such a problem that they had to remove one third of the fences and, the “run in” from “the last”, became just over half a mile in distance. They just went through the motions for two miles then sprinted for half a mile.

My top rated horses at Newcastle. I kid you not, I really fancied both very strongly. Two non-runners. My first became a five runner race, I didn’t bet and my second highest rated wins @ 4/1.

We cannot win, can we!

This bit is the best though!

Simon Claise, head honcho at Cheltenham, calls up the BHA and asks politely, “can we move the big race of the day tomorrow, to prevent us having the same problem as we had with that Novices race”. Man at BHA, he say no!

They are expecting it to be a lovely day there today. The Paddy Power goes off around the same time as that Novice Chase today. Einstein is not required here.

The sun will be roughly in the same position it as yesterday….E=MC2….I’m no scientist and know little of celestial beings but I’ve calculated (as has Mr Claise), that the sun will most likely cause us the same problem as yesterday and that not moving the race = similar scenario.

I do not know if you saw the gap they had that small field going through, to miss out those dolled off fences but they’ll not be able to do that for the Paddy Power Gold Cup.

This could get messy.

All we can do is wait and see what happens.

I know we have had more rain overnight everywhere and I personally will be waiting until I’ve seen the state of the ground myself before getting involved anywhere but I have already decided I will not be backing horses at Uttoxeter.

It will be attritional there this afternoon and with only three of the runners in my three rated races there proven on it, I’ll sit and watch.

ASSUMPTIONS:

Cheltenham / Sat 15 Nov
Updated @ Sat 15 Nov

Going/Track

Soft (GoingStick: 6.1 on Saturday at 06:00)

Rails: Rails moved out two yards since the October meeting adding 12 yards to each circuit.

Weather

2mm overnight, mostly dry Saturday/Sunday with sunny spells and a few showers.

Wetherby / Sat 15 Nov
Updated @ Sat 15 Nov

Going/Track

Soft

Rails: The Hurdles are located down the centre of both straights. The bends are 6 yds from their inside line, but this does not add any additional yards to the official distances.

Weather

Dry on Monday and Tuesday. 9mm rain on Tuesday night and damp on Wednesday and Thursday. 15mm rain in total on Friday, which finished at 1.00pm. Dry overnight into Saturday. DENSE FOG AT PRESENT (Yellow weather warning), which is expected to be clear by late morning. Remainder of the day is forecast to be dry.

Other

The areas of standing water in the back straight have worsened overnight, but with the hurdles being positioned in the middle of the straight, they are situated well off the racing line on the inside of the course. The drainage dykes inside the course remain at capacity, but the river levels are now falling locally, so they should begin to recede.

Uttoxeter / Sat 15 Nov
Updated @ Fri 14 Nov

Going/Track

Heavy (2 mile Chute – Standing Water in places) (GoingStick: 3.9 (doubtful accuracy) on Friday at 07:30)

Rails: Hurdles moved out another 4/5 yards from last meeting with hurdle track at its longest adding 75 yards per circuit. Chase fences reduced in width as for last two meetings. Chute hurdle omitted in both 2 mile hurdle races.

Weather

12mm rain earlier in week. 12mm rain from midnight to 10.45am this morning; Dry since then. Saturday forecast: Mainly dry with small risk of a light shower.

* – indicates winner on ground at the time of rating the race
T – indicates having travelled more than 150 miles to race today
H – Indicates wearing some form of headgear for first time today
CHELTENHAM 1-50

* – RESTLESS HARRY….+12
* – THE DRUIDS NEPHEW….+9
* – MASTER NEO….+8
LAMB OR COD….-9
* – GEVREY CHAMBERTIN….-9
* – GOLDEN CHIEFTAIN….-10
* – SFARAN DE COTTE….-10
THE PACKAGE….-15
SAM WINNER….-16
T – CHICAGO GREY….-29
T – CAPE TRIBULATION….-37
PIGEON ISLAND….-40
SAINT ARE….-40
SHATTERED DREAM….-40

CHELTENHAM 2-30

* – OSCAR WHISKY….+10
* – PRESENT VIEW….+10
* – JOHNS SPIRIT….+9
* – PERSIAN SNOW….+8
* – EASTLAKE….-8
* – INDIAN CASTLE….-14
* – ERICHT….-17
* – CEDRE BLEU….-20
* – EASTER METEOR….-22
* – KAPGA DE CERISY….-24
KING MASSINI….-25
BUYWISE….-30
CANTLOW….-38
T – ATTAGLANCE….-39
EDGARDO SOL….-40
CHAMPION COURT….-40
T – SHAPALLAS….-40
CAID DU BERLAIS….-40
T – ORPHEUS VALLEY….-40

PROFILING

It might all be academic if we suffer the low lying sun that saw the Novice ‘Chase reduced to farce today as one third of the fences were omitted and we ended up with a five furlong sprint. I have no idea how they will cater for this field running through the same size gap they provided for today’s small field but I do think it ridiculous that the BHA will not left them move the race until later,

Anyway, let’s see what the runes say!

Nine of the last 10 winners were aged six or seven, six of them coming from that older group.

My first shortlist comprises of:

JOHN’S SPIRIT
EDGARDO SOL
KAPGA DE CERISY
SHANPALLAS
BUYWISE
PRESENT VIEW
INDIAN CASTLE
CEDRE BLEU

The market does provide a clue or two and it’s a fact that the winner has been in the front four on the tissue in seven of the last 10 renewals of this race. Four of the last five winners were no bigger than 8/1.

Favourites do not fare so well. Only two of those last 10 Paddy Power’s saw us cheering home the jolly. I’m “pruning” the favourite from this list as we are looking for the winner. A place is very much up for grabs for whatever does go off shortest as five of the last 10 have managed it.

Working from the latest tissue I have then we produce a shorter shortlist containing:

JOHN’S SPIRIT
BUYWISE
INDIAN CASTLE

This might seem a strange stat to think of working with but, five of the last 10 winners had won a race on their latest start, or finished unplaced….in other words, I’m reluctant to have a horse that placed last time we saw it race.

Next shortlist is identical and if you are looking for a dutch, that’s it….maybe exotics, too?

JOHN’S SPIRIT
BUYWISE
INDIAN CASTLE

It would very much appear that carrying a big in this is proving a task very few are up to. Only 11 of the 57 that have tried to carry 11st or more have won or placed….only three have managed to visit the winners enclosure in those 10 races.

So, the weight range I’m looking at is 10st to 10st 13b….and only one horse qualifies

INDIAN CASTLE

A previous CD winner I’m happy to row in with this seasonal debutante, (two of the last three winners did so after a summers break), who won his first two races last season after a long break looks set to be competitive and I’ll have a nice little 20/80.

POST RACING PROFILE HORSE = INDIAN CASTLE – 20/80

CHELTENHAM 3-00

* – DOUBLE DOUBLE….-4
* – HERONSHAW….-9
BIG EASY….-18
* – INVICTA LAKE….-19
KATKEAU….-20
* – CANNON FODDER….–25
* – PINEAU DE RE….-26
VIVALDI COLLONGES….-30
* – DAWN COMMANDER….-35
H – FIGHTER JET….-36
H – THE ITALIAN YOB….-40
THEATRICAL STAR….-40
MASTER OF DECEPTION….-40
DRAGON’S DEN….-40

UTTOXETER 1-40

* – FREDO….+9
T – HEATHFIELD….-3
* – UNION JACK D’YCY….-11
HOLLINS….-12
MOHI RAHRERE….-15
ACHIMOTA….-20

UTTOXETER 2-15

T – AVEL MOR….+10
MUBROOK….+9
* – PROUD TIMES….+4
LAST SHADOW….-3
NAFAATH….-11
CLARA PEGGOTTY….-18
TENNESSEE BIRD….-25

UTTOXETER 3-25

IT’S OSCAR….-25
PALUS SAN MARCO….-33
NOLECCE….-40
ECHO FOXTROT….-40
HOLLYWOOD ALL STAR….-40
H – LOVE TANGLE….-40
SPESSARTINE….-40
H – BUS NAMED DESIRE….-40

WETHERBY 1-30

T* – BESCOT SPRINGS….+1
* – FORTY CROWN….-8
* – PUDSEY HOUSE….-15
* – EMBSAY CRAG….-16
* – BOURNE….-17
PAY THE KING….-23
H – SILVER DRAGON….-30
T – MISTRAL REINE….-33
OSCAR O’SCAR….-39
SOLWAY SAM….-40

WETHERBY 2-05

* – NOBLE LEGEND….+10
* – DEAL DONE….+9
PRESENTED….+4
T* – OSCAR FORTUNE….+3
* – SHOULDAVBOUGHTGOLD….-3
T* – KEY TO THE WEST….-6
WHAT A GOOD NIGHT….-10

WETHERBY 3-15

* – CIRCUS STAR….+12
FORCED FAMILY FUN….+6
* – MASTER RED….+4
* – OVERPRICED….-5
H – CHAT ROOM….-9
SLIPPER SATIN….-15
EVER FORTUNE….-22
PERTUIS….-25
T – WAR SINGER….-31

I’d be inclined to bear in mind it’s still early season and most of these will be searching for match fitness so go easy!

Best of luck if you get involved.

Kindest regards

Ron

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