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Today’s Ratings and Advice 12/10/14

Ron RobinsonThe 500 Club database “prune” has been completed and if you have received this, you have been set up correctly.

It’s a manic time every year as new members come on board, some leave, upgrade, downgrade and mistakes will happen. Some have two e-mail addresses in the database and that can get confusing, too.

DANCING SOLO AND KILDA’S ROCK

I’ll be sending out a report on your two horses that ran yesterday, Dancing Solo and Kilda’s Rock, as soon as Harry sends me over an update.

The latter certainly ran as if something was amiss and I hope the mare is ok.

Interesting listening to Venetia Williams after her odds on shot got mullahed in the opener. On flat form that horse had to win that race by a mile. Her opinion was that when one jumped across her at the first, it frightened the life out of her. She’ll have to toughen up then!

Your horse looked like she needed to go the other way around to me. All she wanted to do was go right and it’s possible that made her jumping look as rough as it did.

THINGS TO KEEP AN ON!

The stables of Ferguson, George and Greatrex are fairly motoring and it’s still clear those stables ahead of the game are looking to make hay whilst their sun shines.

In rated races they have runners in it’s probably more important to keep an eye on their horses than anything else that’s happening, as plenty still look short of fitness from those other yards.

I’m going to apply that to LIGHT THE CITY, my top rated horse that ran in the Sedgefield 2-50. Watch that race back if you can and if you can convince me the jockey did all he could to obtain the best placing, I’ll happily tell myself my pocket is talking.

I don’t mind one getting beaten if an effort has been made but I rode that one more vigorously from my office chair.

Be interested in your thoughts.

Nicky Henderson is starting to roll with his better ones and another off top weight cruised home like it had not been involved in the first half of the race. Polly Peachum on Saturday and Volnay De Thaix yesterday could not have been more impressive and I’m really looking forward to seeing how the likes of Josses Hill etc start their seasons. It would be great to think he’ll get Sprinter Sacre back to his best, too.

TODAY

Despite three meetings today we are again light on rated races.

Small fields again make it disappointing and we have seven races with less than six runners across those three meetings. One, a three runner race at Ayr, is worth £6.5k to the winner and if I was an owner with one standing in it’s box when it could be going after that prize, I would be on the phone to my trainer.

Coming home in second place would cover the months training fees so, what’s going on?

ASSUMPTIONS:

  • The BHA website is down again and they really are having a few issues with this new one they have recently introduced.

*  – indicates winner on ground at the time of rating the race
T – indicates having travelled more than 150 miles to race today
H – Indicates wearing some form of headgear for first time today

EXETER 1-40

IVY GATE….+10
* – JUPITER REX….+9
* – ALBEROBELLO….+6
* – TOO GENEROUS….-3
* – BUCKTHORN TIMOTHY….-7
* – ABSOLUTELY BYGONES….-15
T* – AMERICAN LIFE….-25
SOMERSET LIAS….-40
UNOWHATIMEANHARRY….-40

MY PLAY – If Venetia Williams has JUPITER REX back fit and firing then I expect my second highest rated horse to take this. He has his ground, for sure…3-4 on it…trip no issue…1-1….but two previous visits to this track yield duck eggs. Having said that, all those in here that have raced at Exeter before have not done the business either.

It’s a dutch rated horse 2, 3 and 4 for me, a 20/80 JUPITER REX and exotics.

Just that 592 day absence that’s the concern but, the good lady has got them back of longer ones in the past and it’s fingers crossed.

AYR 2-20

* – NELSON DU RONCERAY….-27
BIGGAR….-29
BARABOY….-34
DE CHISSLER….-40
SCIMON TEMPLAR….-40
ELLISTRIN BELLE….-40
T – MAD FOR ROAD….-40

MY PLAY – If you gave me the money to punt this, I’d still not be interested. My top rated is now a 13 year old that has pulled up on it’s last three starts, half the field has more letters than numbers against their names from their last three starts and it reads more like a Scrabble board than a race card.

It’s closing on three years since my top rated won over CD on the ground they face today …hence the *…and if you think that’ll make a difference, yer mad as a box of frogs!

No bet race for me!

AYR 2-50

* – AND THE MAN….+11
* – THE FRIARY….+9
T* – BALBRIGGAN….+/-0
T* – ALWAYS RIGHT….-6
T* – KING OF THE WOLDS….-9
HARRY THE VIKING….-12
* – MILBOROUGH….-13
PRESENTING JUNIOR….-15

MY PLAY – The cheese to that chalk above. Cracking little race this. My top rated loves this place as his record of four wins from seven visits would testify. He’s two from six when the ground rides soft, had won one of the two starts he has made over the trip and the stable is in form.

We have four previous CD winners in here and if my bottom rated does handle this ground (never tried it), he’ll be competitive….like I say, this is a little cracker. He’s 4-6 over the trip, 1-2 at Ayr and it’s all very interesting.

THE FRIARY will have no issues with trip or track but one win from five attempts on soft has me rubbing my chin.

I’ll be dutching my top three, going 20/80 AND THE MAN with exotics.

BANGOR 2-00

* – HERDSMAN….+8
OPERATING….+8
* – KNOCK A HAND….+7
* – HOWARDS LEGACY….+2
* – ACROSS THE BAY….-1
* – BOB FORD….-1
WHATS HAPPENING….-10
DURSEY SOUND….-18
* – IKORODU ROAD….-28
COUNT SALAZAR….-33

MY PLAY – Probably the best race of the day. Again my top rated should have his ideal conditions as his CV shows us that he’s 2-4 on this ground, 2-6 at the trip and 1-2 around Bangor.

BOB FORD would be a danger if I thought he’d like the track but he’s bombed out on two previous visits. Ground and trip are bang on though.

COUNT SALAZAR, WHATS HAPPENING, OPERATING and DURSEY SOUND have tried 19 times between them to produce a win on today’s going and failed each time.

HOWARD’S LEGACY is 1-10 on it so I’m not sure what that * is actually worth regarding him.

I’ll play rated horses 1, 3 and 4 dutched, go 20/80 my top one and tinker with those exotics.

BANGOR 3-00

* – FLICKA WILLIAMS….+15
EL MACCA….+14
* – CLONDAW KAEMPFER….+12
* – FOX CUB….-4
GET IT ON….-10
BOTHY….-18
KENTUCKY HYDEN….-23
SOMEMOTHERSDOHAVEM….-24
T – MAN OF LEIDURE….-30

MY PLAY – I’m treating this with caution. My top three marked * will do for me and if McCain has finally got his fit enough to seat doing themselves justice then CLONDAW KAEMPFER is the one I’m most interested in.

Right now though I’ll go dutch rated horses 1 & 3, have a 20/80 my top one and an exotic.

Best of luck if you are betting today!
Kindest regards

Ron

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