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Today’s Ratings and Advice 11/11/14

Ron RobinsonThat race I took in isolation yesterday, the Southwell 12-30, produced a top two rated 1-2 and that 14 race maiden is now a 15 race maiden but, only just.

A neck separated them at the line and the pair, who were miles clear of the rest on my numbers, came a distance clear of the 3rd placed horse. You most certainly would not have got rich off it and I’m afraid the same applies today.

Small fields really do mess with my mind. I hate them. If one of my rated races goes down to five or less runners before I have my own bets sorted out, I’m off.

Today we have three meetings but not a single race for me to work on at Lingfield. One of our members who was unlucky in the draw for owners badges, was lucky in the draw for badges we’ll pay for today, to see the two runners from Harry’s yard that you are involved in, race at 1-00pm and 4-00pm (more on those in a second).

However, when we contacted him to advise of his luck he said he had looked at the card and would see more horses whilst out walking the dog. An unfortunate truth I’m afraid. Seven races and just 41 horses racing. That is laughable.

Sedgefield isn’t much better….they have 50 runners across their seven field card and the last two races have just four in each. Someone, somewhere, has to do something about it.

The bright spot is that card at Huntingdon which has a cracking little race at 2-10….decent enough prize money in the grand scheme of things and for that reason it’s attracted a double figure field and is competitive.

My figures would suggest also that we have the winner of the 3-10 sorted out, too.

DANCING SOLO AND KILDA’S ROCK

Two of the four horses we are involved in with Harry Fry race today. I’m going to start this bit by advising you that this is not a gambling yard so we’ll never be hearing a “psssst, we’re “off” today”….what we’ll get from Harry is the same as that we used to get from James Ewart. The advice will always be, “the horse is fit, well and ready and he has an e.w. chance”.

What we’ll get with Harry is some brilliant days out on a Saturday and midweek and Sean and I will be trying to spot up those days we can think seriously about winning.

Today Dancing Solo has an e.w. chance…probably more of a place chance than a winning one because if Beacon Lady takes to hurdling then everything else is playing for place money.

KILDA’S ROCK is very much an unknown quantity and I have absolutely no idea how she’ll handle two miles on the all weather. Both would attract no more than bets of loyalty size at this end!

Sean Trivass will be meeting and greeting members going racing today and will let us know the thoughts of our trainer from the parade ring. I’ll get them out to you asap.

I’m very excited by the long term situation regarding Harry who is “going places” and you have much to look forward to.

ASSUMPTIONS:

Huntingdon / Tue 11 Nov
Updated @ Mon 10 Nov

Going/Track

Soft (GoingStick: 6.1 C, 6.6 H on Monday at 07:00)

Rails: All bends out 6m adding approx 36m (39yd) to circuit distance.

Weather

4mm rain Friday, 6.8mm Saturday. Forecast: Mostly dry with sunny spells on Monday, although occasional light showers possible. Some showers arriving Monday night and continuing into Tuesday (1-2mm). Overcast on Tuesday with occasional showers/drizzle.

Lingfield Park / Tue 11 Nov
Updated @ Mon 10 Nov

Going/Track

Heavy, Soft in places (GoingStick: 5.0 on Monday at 07:15)

Weather

Dry yesterday. 3mm overnight. Forecast: Some further showers this morning. Then looking dry for the rest of the day. An odd shower overnight then tomorrow looks overcast and mainly dry.

Sedgefield / Tue 11 Nov
Updated @ Mon 10 Nov

Going/Track

CH- Soft, Good to Soft in places HUR- Good to Soft, soft in places (GoingStick: CH-6.3 HUR- 6.7 on Monday at 06:45)

Rails: Common bends. Hurdles towards the centre. Inner rail dolled off around all bends.

Weather

16mm rain last week. Dry overnight last night. Damp foggy morning due to clear up later on this morning and remain dry. Rain overnight and into the early hours of tomorrow morning. Dry and overcast day for racing tomorrow.

* – indicates winner on ground at the time of rating the race
T – indicates having travelled more than 150 miles to race today
H – Indicates wearing some form of headgear for first time today

HUNTINGDON 12-40

MISS LUCKY PENNY….-8
* – BOOMTOWN….-10
JAC THE LEGEND….-12
ALBERTO’S DREAM….-18
HIGH OFFICE….-20
COMPTON LADY….-26
PANDY WELLS….-28
SECOND BROOK….-30
HELAMIS….-34

MY PLAY – Nothing….nowt….nada….this is for watching only as far as I myself is concerned.

HUNTINGDON 2-10

* – VOLNAY DE THAIX….+18
* – MY OH MOUNT BROWN….+12
* – LONG LUNCH….+11
CADOUDOFF….+/-0
* – CONQUISTO….-2
* – MOUJIK BORGET….-11
SOFTSONG….-13
KAYF MOSS….-15
TOUCH BACK….-16
BEYEH….-25
SONGSMITH….-33
PRINCE OF PIRATES….-40

MY PLAY – Top three for everything….dutch, 20/80 my top rated and exotics. I’d like more of a clue regarding the track and trip for my top rated as he’s failed here once before and never raced over this trip….MY OH MOUNT BROWN, on the other hand, has tried this distance on five previous occasions and won on three of them so, no issues with that one. He’s also one from three on this ground, too. Will he handle the track? Can I just say that he’s by a sire that, had he won the Irish St Leger in 2001 would have won me the Tote Ten to Follow! Pat Smullen held up Vinnie Roe in the early stages as Persian Punch set the pace from Millenary before making his challenge in the straight. Millenary took the lead, but Smullen brought Vinnie Roe through to overtake him inside the final furlong and win by two lengths….swine.

In truth I have nothing strong on the criteria and I’m trusting more to the figures than anything else.

HUNTINGDON 3-10

* – OUR PHYLLI VERA….+11
HI NOTE….-3
ROJA DOVE….-15
FAVOURITE GIRL….-25
CHASSEN EN MER….-30
GOLDIE HORN….-37

MY PLAY – A straight win my top one. I might consider an exotic with HI NOTE, too but my top one has everything absolutely spot on and if Alan King has her fit and ready to roll, she’ll take some beating in this. One iota away from being my first BET OF THE DAY in a long time!

SEDGEFIELD 2-20

HI GEORGE….+9
* – ALDERBROOK LAD….+8
TAHITI PEARL….+/-0
* – LUCKY LANDING….+/-0
T* – DARNA….-5
RISKIER….-17
T – BLESS THE WINGS….-19

MY PLAY – Just a small 20/80 ALDERBROOK LAD. He has pulled a win out of the bag on his only previous start in this ground, has a 29% strike rate at this trip and is 1-3 at the track. He sits second best on my numbers and whilst rated horses 1 & 3 also like this place (nothing more than TAHITI PEARL….5-8), my play has proof positive he’ll go on the ground. My top rated has yet to give it a shot so, we’ll see….his achilles heel looks to be the trip…0-3.

SEDGEFIELD 2-50

* – LIGHT THE CITY….+10
* – ACORDINGTOSCRIPT….+8
* – AMIR PASHA….-9
SILVER SHUFFLE….-10
REVOLUTIONARY ROAD….-10
H* – JUKEBOX MELODY….-12
ROCK RELIEF….-15
DUMBARTON….-26
JAGO RIVER….-35

MY PLAY – My top rated is unbeaten here…2-2, just the trip giving me cause for concern. Ground should be ok.
My second best is a big danger. A winner on his only previous visit to Sedgefield and with ground and trip just fine, he’s most certainly a danger.
The pair are clear on my numbers so it’s a dutch, a 20/80 my top one and exotics.

Best of luck if you are betting today!

Kindest regards

Ron

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