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Today’s Ratings and Advice 09/11/14

Ron RobinsonThanks to Sean Trivass who gave up his Saturday to head down to Wincanton for us, to meet and greet members that went racing, see Blue Buttons making her seasonal debut and he’ll be producing an article for the website around our first day’s racing with Harry Fry.

She ran a mighty race to finish second to a horse that has clearly improved a ton over the summer and I think we’ll see Nicky Henderson having a better time of it this season, than he did last.

My disappointment in your horse coming second was mightily tempered by the fact I backed the winner!

Thank you also to those that have sent over details of your BACS references. We have now set up a new 500 Club database and will be doing the same for Site Members. This work will be completed by Wednesday. It does mean that a few of those that have not yet resubscribed this season will get the Newsletter for another couple of days yet and I hope you get something from them.

We will send out a Newsletter to each of the old databases advising of this and effectively if you receive that Newsletter and have renewed your subscriptions, you will need to contact us to let us know. Mistakes can happen and I’ll apologise in advance to you, if you do get that message.

In effect, you should only receive that message if you have NOT renewed. Hope that’s clear.

YESTERDAY

How did things go on the first day of the season? Well, it cannot be as bad as it’s going to be for the BHA clerk that missed the fact that the winner of the Badger yesterday was not qualified to run in it!

By all accounts a horse needed to have raced three times over fences, the winner had run only twice and so, was ineligible.

If I owned it, I would be having a chat with my trainer, too.

When I started work on Saturday’s racing…sometime on Wednesday, I commenced the profiling and the very first thing I saw was the pattern that existed around that first race at Kelso. Just a small novice event but it had enough about it for me to produce something and it was absolutely spot on.

I was listening to RUK (have my back to the TV in my office most of the time), and Dave Nevison was on. He’s a pro punter of long standing and he was saying that if the favourite didn’t win that race, he would be out of the game early.

I was half inclined to e-mail the profiling over to them but that was another plate I could do without.

Effectively my first bet of the new season, got bits of 7+, and in it went. I knew it wouldn’t all be roses and this is how the rest of the afternoon went:

WINCANTON 2-05

TAGRITA….+15
* – POLLY PEACHUM….+15 – WON 6/1
PRESSIES GIRL….+6 – 4TH 20/1
BLUE BUTTONS….+4 – 2ND 3/1
* – MRS PEACHEY….-4
* – LAND OF VIC….-5
* – LILY WAUGH….-9
ONE LUCKY LADY….-9
* – MINI MUCK….-17
WOODLANDS WALK….-20
TEMPEST RIVER….-21

MY PLAY – I obviously want BLUE BUTTONS to do what stablemate and fellow 500 Club horse HIGHLAND RETREAT did last season, and take this before going on to Cheltenham in March.

However, I have never let sentiment get in the way of my looking for a profit and so I’m working with the three in my top six marked *….usual stuff….dutch, 20/80 POLLY PEACHUM and exotics but I don’t mind losing one bit as long as it’s the Harry Fry horse that does me up like a kipper.

RESULT – Winner, 2nd and 4th in my top four rated. I have to be very pleased with that….and, of course, the run of Blue Buttons!

WINCANTON 2-40

* – BENVOLIO….+13
* – OPENING BATSMAN….+11
* – STANDING OVATION….+11
WORKBENCH….+9
* – GOLDEN CHIEFTAIN….+9
* – DUKE OF LUCCA….+8
* – PANTXOA….+6
* – JUST A PAR….+4
THE YOUNG MASTER….+2
* – IFYOUSAYSO….+/-0
DARE TO ENDEAVOR….-1
* – COURT BY SURPRISE….-2
DECIDING MOMENT….-3
BENNYS MIST….-6
* – ACKERTAC….-7
* – SCCORDING TO TREV….-11
* – CREEVYTENANT….-11
ALFIE SPINNER….-17

MY PLAY – I’ve profiled this and will stick to my guns and go with profiling over ratings, when it comes to these big races.

PROFILING

I am more than happy to let the tissue dictate to me where we start with this one.
Before I do though I’ll state what I mentioned in the Podcast that finding the winner of this in the last 10 years has been easy peasy.

You just needed to look at those saddled by Nichols and Pipe and you would have enjoyed eight winners from those last 10 races.

Right….front four on tissue:

JUST A PAR
COURT BY SURPRISE
STANDING OVATION
THE YOUNG MASTER

During the last 10 years 31 horses have tried to cart 11st 7lb or more to victory and only two have managed to do it. Only four others have managed to place so Just A Par has a serious job on off 11st 12b.

The favourite has not been out of the first three when completing, in the last 10 years. It has fallen on two occasions during that period but there is no denying, that’s a horses you very much need onside and last years winner, Standing Ovation has to make any final cut.

Court By surprise represents an age group…9-y-o’s…that have won four and provided five placed horses from just 23 from that age group and he’s respected off the back of that stat. However, only two horses, in the last 10 years, have won this off the back of a win from the 22 that have tried in that timespan and that’s also something you’d suggest makes The Young Master less attractive. He would also be a very rare bird indeed…a five year old winning a Badger?

Everything points to STANDING OVATION as the most likely winner from the four shortlisted and if you then look at the stats of his trainer, David Pipe, when saddling one for this, you know you are in for a big run….12 saddled in those last 10 years, three winners, two placed.

POST RACING PROFILE HORSE – STANDING OVATION

I am very much aware the pipe horse is now 12l higher in the weights but i’m also aware he’s unbeaten at Wincanton. He will have been trained for this again and as he also sits in my top three rated then he’s very much the horse I want to be with.

My top rated came as a surprise to me but as I said in the Podcast, the fact eight of the last 10 of these have been won by a Pipe or Nichols horse hopefully means I’m not a million miles away from being on the winner. I’ve had a 12/1 saver on Benvolio but for sure, our Podcast competition winners will be hoping my profiling is bang on.

RESULT – The tissue most certainly was the place to look for the winner, the winner and runner up in that first shortlist of four but no way would I have suggested punting a five year old to win this race. The profile selection….favoured by many….simply didn’t turn up on the day.

WINCANTON 3-15

* – ROCK ON RUBY….+11 – 3RD 4/1
* – IRVING….+10 – FELL
* – BERTIEMONT….+6 – 2ND 14/1
* – STARBUCK….+1
FOX NORTON….-2
* – FERGALL….-9
HINT OF MINT….-11
FORGOTTEN VOICE….-13
T* – PURPLE BAY….-15

MY PLAY – I’m pretty sure my figures are spot on here and the winner is in my top pair. My top rated is now in the wrong age group for winners of this race and so my only play here will be a straight win IRVING.

RESULT – Not sure what would have happened had Irving stood up as it looked the fall of a tired horse but again, very pleased with my figures….with the exception of having that 16/1 winner bottom rated!

SANDOWN 2-30

T – NOTARFBAD….+10
* – CARRICKBOY….+10
T* – ROUDOUDOU VILLE….+9
* – SOUND INVESTMENT….+7 – WON 15/2
* – FOUNDATION MAN….-9
* – DOLATULO….-10
TOBY LERONE….-11
T – BARRAKILLA….-19
* – BALLY LEGEND….-25
* – TATENEN….-27
T – FILBERT….-32
NO BUTS….-37
FRECKLE FACE….-40

MY PLAY – I’ll be working with rated horse 2, 3 and 4….dutch, 20/80 CARRICKBOY and exotics…as they have previous winning form on today’s current going so, we’ll see how things pan out.

RESULT – A nice 15/2 winner in my dutch and that produces a small profit on the race…I’ll take that first day back!

SANDOWN 3-05

T – KASHMIR PEAK….+10 – 2ND 12/1
* – DUBAWI ISLAND….+8 – 4TH 8/1
T* – TORNADO IN MILAN….-17
THEINVAL….-20
* – CARRY ON SYDNEY….-23
MYSTERY DRAMA….-29
THE BROCK AGAIN….-32
EXITAS….-40
VALID REASON….-40
T – SECRET DANCER….-40
RHAMNUS….-40

MY PLAY – Another top rated horse that has yet to win on today’s ground as currently described but no shock if he does it today. Again though, Mr Pedantic will be looking to those that have got that * on their CV’s and it’s rated horses 2, 3 and 5 for my own bets….usual stuff.

RESULT – Got this horribly wrong and I’m going to try and get a few minutes to revisit it and see just how i had that easy winning favourite so lowly rated.

SANDOWN 3-40

* – WILTON MILAN….+2 – 4TH 8/1
SAROQUE….+/-0 – 2ND 8/1
* – BEFOREALL….-9 – 5TH
TULLAMORE DEW….-10 – 3RD
T* – LOOKSLIKERAINTED….-12
T – WOODFORD COUNTY….-22
* – LE REVE….-29
CAULFIELDS VENTURE….-33

MY PLAY – Very pleased to see that one top rated as I mentioned on the Podcast that I fancied him to run well, giving my reasons for believing that. He has to learn to pick his feet up and if he gets beaten it’ll most likely be because he has walloped a few on the way around.

Rated horses 1, 3 and 5 are where I’ll be looking but my top rated gets the 20/80 irrespective of anything else.

RESULT – Top four rated 2nd, 3rd, 4th and 5th….and the lowest rated of the four horses marked * scuppered everything.

KELSO 1-40

T* – THE LAST SAMURAI….+12 – 2ND 2/1
* – SCOTSWELL….-1
* – MR UTAH….-6
FOURTH ESTATE….-9
* – SAMSTOWN….-18
* – NEPTUNE EQUESTER….-19
* – LOS NADIS….-22

MY PLAY – Donald McCain saddles two of my top rated today and I do not know whether to laugh or cry.

He has again been very slow out of the blocks this season and it’s with a heavy heart i say I’ll work with my top pair to my usual play.

RESULT – Looked for all the world like he was coming to win his race then ran out of legs. Typical of the way most of this stables horses have been running so far.

KELSO 2-15

* – FENTARA….+17 – 3RD 5/1
* – WOLF SHIELD….+13
* – MISTER MARKER….+9
* – ISLA PEARL FISHER….-3
* – MCMURROUGH….-4
PINEROLO….-14

MY PLAY – The winner is in my top pair or I lose money here.

RESULT – The top weight ran a cracker for us but came 2 lengths short of delivering.

KELSO 2-50

T* – SWIFT ARROW….+12
* – SUPRISE VENDOR….+4
ROCKAWANGO….+/-0 – WON 11/2
* – TOLEDO GOLD….+/-0
* – QUITO DU TRESOR….+/-0
* – QUICUYO….-5
* – FIRTH OF CLYDE….-6
AUTHINGER….-11

MY PLAY – Top pair again the horses i’ll be using. Again though, that McCain horse sitting top is giving me the jitters. That yard has sent out more sighters than me in the last month!

RESULT – And again the McCain horse runs out of legs. I confess, after that first one, I actually left this race alone.

KELSO 4-00

SOME LAD….+5 – 2ND 3/1
WAKHAN….-4
* – SHINE A DIAMOND….-5
AZERODEGREE….-13
TRAPPRAIN….-19
THURLAK….-20

MY PLAY – Tempted to leave this, given only one has winning form on today’s ground. A clear top rated though so I’ll think about this as we go through the day.

RESULT – Again close for top rated players but as soon as this went down to five runners I chucked it in.

PROFILED RACES

I have profiled the first race on the card at Kelso. Enough empirical data exists to enable me to get a handle on it.

KELSO 12-30

This might seem a strange one to be profiling but it does have an order to it and most certainly a race in which a pattern can clearly be seen.
Eight of the last 10 runnings have gone to a 5-6 year old so we’ll cull the rest and produce a shortlist containing:

ALWAYSINCOMMAND
DONNA’S DIAMOND
GOLAN’S CHOICE
KINGSWELL THEATRE
LOOKING WELL
THE LAST LEG
COOLANURE
QUEENS REGATTA

Only one of the last 10 winners has carried less than 10st 6lb and we’ll get rid of the two at the bottom of that list as they’ve only 1st 5lb.

ALWAYSINCOMMAND
DONNA’S DIAMOND
GOLAN’S CHOICE
KINGSWELL THEATRE
LOOKING WELL
THE LAST LEG

Down to six. We can shorten it still further by removing horses that failed to win or place last time out. It’s a fact that eight of the last 10 winners had done so, so, something in that, perhaps.

DONNA’S DIAMOND
GOLAN’S CHOICE
KINGSWELL THEATRE
LOOKING WELL

Favourites have finished in the first three in eight of the last 10 renewals so LOOKING WELL can be safely utilised for Placepot purposes but, only one of the last six favourites has managed to win, four of the last six sited 2nd or 3rd best on the tissue.

Using that to pin down a final pair we have:

GOLAN’S CHOICE
KINGSWELL THEATRE

A dutch that pair with exotics might well be a way to go here but for those looking to just one for a 20/80, then it’s KINGSWELL THEATRE.

Trainer Lucinda Russell has run six in this over the course of the last 10 years and enjoyed one winner and two placed horses.

POST RACING PROFILE HORSE = KINGSWELL THEATRE – 20/80 – WON 6/1

How can I not be pleased with that one!

So, a mixed bag but I was happy getting back into the saddle.

ASSUMPTIONS:

Market Rasen / Sun 09 Nov
Updated @ Sun 09 Nov

Going/Track

Soft, Heavy in places on the Chase course

Weather

14 mm rain Friday. 5mm rain Saturday. Dry overnight. Sunday is expected to remain dry with bright spells, and temperatures around 10C.

Ffos Las / Sun 09 Nov
Updated @ Sun 09 Nov

Going/Track

Soft

Weather

(Friday-10mm rain, Saturday- 8mm) Forecast- Some bright spells with the chance of light showers in the afternoon (1-2mm)

* – indicates winner on ground at the time of rating the race
T – indicates having travelled more than 150 miles to race today
H – Indicates wearing some form of headgear for first time today

FFOS LAS 2-00

* – OLYMPIAN BOY….+/-0
RIDDLEOFTHESANDS….-5
* – LAMB’S CROSS….-7
COOLBEG….-14
AMUSE ME….-18
MAIZY MISSILE….-24
KINGSPORT BOY….-30
KIMS FIREBUD….-40

MY PLAY – Staking will be kept as small as these fields we have today! I’ll just settle for a 20/80 my top rated.

FFOS LAS 2-35

* – CYRIEN STAR….+19
* – HEAVENSTOWN….+12
* – MOLLY’S A DIVA….+8
H* – ASHFORD WOOD….+4
* – FISHING BRIDGE….-1
HE’S THE DADDY….-9
HENRI PARRY MORGAN….-14
* – REBECCA’S CHOICE….-15
STILL BELIEVING….-23

MY PLAY – Top three for everything…dutch, 20/80 CYRIEN STAR and exotics.

FFOS LAS 3-40

* – VICTORY GUNNER….+12
* – SILVER TOKEN….+10
* – TARRACO….-1
RED ROUBLE….-5
MISTER BRICOLAGE….-8
VUJIYAMA….-12

MY PLAY – I do wince when I see a 16 year old running in steeplechases under rules. Obviously considered still good enough to do himself justice and safely too, he’s top rated on merit but I’m not sure I can trust this one to carry my shekels. I’m abstaining and if he wins, I’ll be pleased as punch.

MARKET RASEN 1-45

H* – LITTLE CHIP….+13
T* – STRUMBLE HEAD….+12
T* – MASTER NEO….+7
* – AMREICAN LEGEND….+5
T* – HALLEY….-5
* – BLACKWELL SYNERGY….-15
WHISKEY RIDGE….-26

MY PLAY – Top pair will do for me personally. Dutch, 20/80 my top one and an exotic.

MARKET RASEN 2-50

T* – SANDS COVE….-13
* – ARKAIM….-13
T – MISTER WISEMAN….-18
* – THE SOCIETY MAN….-28
VAL D’ARC….-28
TREGARO….-30

MY PLAY – Do I have too? Of course not and I probably won’t.

Best of luck if you are getting down to business today!

Kindest regards

Ron

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