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Today’s Ratings and Advice 08/11/14

Ron RobinsonThis is it….the first day proper of the new NH season. I’ve got my betting bank in place, a few plays already made, plenty more to make but, I’m still very much aware that those stables currently “red hot” will probably still make a bit of a monkey of me regarding my figures. I hope Blue Buttons and Harry Fry is one of those!

YESTERDAY

That was some day!

By the time my head hit the pillow last night I was already asleep.

The meeting at Clatterbridge Hospital went brilliantly and everyone there was buzzing at the idea getting this garden build as soon as is possible.

We have some serious fund raising to to and some ideas for raising those funds were off the wall….like the half-mile zip wire challenge up in Scotland. I’ve suggested that in my case a simple walk around Aintree racecourse might be more sensible for me personally, given I could not do that when I arrived there in January.

I have no doubts whatsoever the money will be raised in the blink of an eye and I’m also going to have built for them a website through which people can advertise they have something they no longer require for sale, that they can put up at a nominal price, with all profits going to the hospital for them to use as they see fit for other purposes, such as the purchase of equipment, garden maintenance contracts, etc.

A bit like an online charity shop for which we will take care of the marketing and promotion of.

Very much a “local” enterprise for a local cause and I hope it does well for them.

It should also create a couple of part-time jobs, too.

Got back to get the Podcast done (enjoyed that one), got the profiling finished and on the website, prepped all of today’s races and answered a few of your e-mails.

That’s the last thing I remember!

HARRY FRY AND POST RACING

Sean Trivass has an early dart down to Wincanton to cover our members first day out with Harry Fry. The first of the four horses we are involved in runs today in the Mares Hurdle at 2-05….BLUE BUTTONS.

She has a cracking good chance and has been backed into favouritism on the tissue….last night 6/1 > 10/3 but you can still get a bit of 4/1 on Betfair.

As we have only just got this deal done and dusted our early information regarding the horse running for you this afternoon is probably a little less than will be the case next time but Harry is more than happy with her for her seasonal debut and the 12l she is better off with Polly Peachum should hopefully make her competitive today.

The one thing that looks assured is you will be going racing of a weekend with these horses!

I have asked Sean to have a good chat to harry once he arrives at Wincanton and get an up to the second report on how she is….as soon as he tells me, I will tell you.

We will have a separate page set up on the website for the four horses and all information regarding them will be updated regularly.

Very, very exciting times ahead.

THE UNNAMED JUVENILE

The paperwork arrived yesterday regarding the juvenile you will go racing with next summer. He is in training with David O’Meara and the latest report that was attached to the paperwork was that this horse has blossomed recently, that David is delighted with him and that he was ridden for the first time last week.

Between now and April I will be looking to have something set up with a trainer based in the Midlands so that we are then able to have members more centrally based going racing on a regular basis.

PODCAST

I thought it was a good one yesterday. I waffled on about several races today and made suggestions as to possible winners of those races based on sound reasoning….i hope those horses have listened in!

Sean produced a rabbit from a hat that has been missing longer than Lucan and runs at Doncaster, we discussed AP, Ryan Moore and….Mario Balotelli.

The podcast winner for last week was announced and both they and last weeks winner have a crisp £10 note already placed on my Profile horse running in today’s Badger Ales Chase at Wincanton.

To repeat from yesterday….

If you have already e-mailed me, thanks….that is a great help!

Can I please ask those that have made their renewals through BACS to e-mail me your ref. so that I can marry up your website and newsletter permissions. We primarily use e-mail addresses for those and some of the e-mail addresses we hold bear no relation to your names!

If you could please e-mail me at contact@postracing.net it would help me enormously.

THE GOAL POSTS

If you still do not have access to the www.thegoalposts.co.uk website, do not receive the that Newsletter but would like to, or have a problem with anything related to that site, please get back to me.

If you enjoy a bet on the football the tipping over there recently has been sensational. We will very shortly have another body on board and I will be introducing you to him next week.

It has taken me a good few months to get the old body moving again following that blip last year but a combination of things (that week off and the start of the new NH season), has me firing again.

As long as I still wake to the Monks each morning, I’ll be here at 5-00am with a spring in my step.

Monks? I have a CD of Gregorian Chant as my 4-50am alarm call and trust me, nothing gets you shifting to turn that alarm off than a group of Monks giving it large on the other side of the bedroom.

So, let’s get to it.

ASSUMPTIONS:

Kelso / Sat 08 Nov
Updated @ Sat 08 Nov

Going/Track

Good to Soft (GoingStick: 6.7 on Thursday at 10:30)

Rails: Add approx 15yds per circuit on to all official distances for this meeting.

Weather

Sandown Park / Sat 08 Nov
Updated @ Sat 08 Nov

Going/Track

Chase – Good to Soft, Soft in places Hurdle – Soft, Heavy in places (GoingStick: Chase 6.4 Hurdle 5.6 on Friday at 08:30)

Rails: Hurdle Course follows Flat Course for entire circuit and bends are at outermost configuration, adding 30 yards per circuit.

Weather

25mm rain Sunday to Tuesday.8mm rain to 6am Friday morning.Dry since and dry overnight. Rain approaching from west during the day but not expected to reach South East until mid to late afternoon.

Wincanton / Sat 08 Nov
Updated @ Sat 08 Nov

Going/Track

Good to Soft, Good in places (GoingStick: Chase 7.2, Hurdle 7.6 on Friday at 08:30)

Weather

1mm rain in last 24 hours, Forecast band of rain from 9am to 3pm some heavy, could get 3-6mm

* – indicates winner on ground at the time of rating the race
T – indicates having travelled more than 150 miles to race today
H – Indicates wearing some form of headgear for first time today
WINCANTON 2-05

TAGRITA….+15
* – POLLY PEACHUM….+15
PRESSIES GIRL….+6
BLUE BUTTONS….+4
* – MRS PEACHEY….-4
* – LAND OF VIC….-5
* – LILY WAUGH….-9
ONE LUCKY LADY….-9
* – MINI MUCK….-17
WOODLANDS WALK….-20
TEMPEST RIVER….-21

MY PLAY – I obviously want BLUE BUTTONS to do what stablemate and fellow 500 Club horse HIGHLAND RETREAT did last season, and take this before going on to Cheltenham in March.

However, I have never let sentiment get in the way of my looking for a profit and so I’m working with the three in my top six marked *….usual stuff….dutch, 20/80 POLLY PEACHUM and exotics but I don’t mind losing one bit as long as it’s the Harry fry horse that does me up like a kipper.

WINCANTON 2-40

* – BENVOLIO….+13
* – OPENING BATSMAN….+11
* – STANDING OVATION….+11
WORKBENCH….+9
* – GOLDEN CHIEFTAIN….+9
* – DUKE OF LUCCA….+8
* – PANTXOA….+6
* – JUST A PAR….+4
THE YOUNG MASTER….+2
* – IFYOUSAYSO….+/-0
DARE TO ENDEAVOR….-1
* – COURT BY SURPRISE….-2
DECIDING MOMENT….-3
BENNYS MIST….-6
* – ACKERTAC….-7
* – SCCORDING TO TREV….-11
* – CREEVYTENANT….-11
ALFIE SPINNER….-17

MY PLAY – I’ve profiled this and will stick to my guns and go with profiling over ratings, when it comes to these big races.

PROFILING

I am more than happy to let the tissue dictate to me where we start with this one.
Before I do though I’ll state what I mentioned in the Podcast that finding the winner of this in the last 10 years has been easy peasy.

You just needed to look at those saddled by Nichols and Pipe and you would have enjoyed eight winners from those last 10 races.

Right….front four on tissue:

JUST A PAR
COURT BY SURPRISE
STANDING OVATION
THE YOUNG MASTER

During the last 10 years 31 horses have tried to cart 11st 7lb or more to victory and only two have managed to do it. Only four others have managed to place so Just A Par has a serious job on off 11st 12b.

The favourite has not been out of the first three when completing, in the last 10 years. It has fallen on two occasions during that period but there is no denying, that’s a horses you very much need onside and last years winner, Standing Ovation has to make any final cut.

Court By surprise represents an age group…9-y-o’s…that have won four and provided five placed horses from just 23 from that age group and he’s respected off the back of that stat. However, only two horses, in the last 10 years, have won this off the back of a win from the 22 that have tried in that timespan and that’s also something you’d suggest makes The Young Master less attractive. He would also be a very rare bird indeed…a five year old winning a Badger?

Everything points to STANDING OVATION as the most likely winner from the four shortlisted and if you then look at the stats of his trainer, David Pipe, when saddling one for this, you know you are in for a big run….12 saddled in those last 10 years, three winners, two placed.

POST RACING PROFILE HORSE – STANDING OVATION

I am very much aware the pipe horse is now 12l higher in the weights but i’m also aware he’s unbeaten at Wincanton. He will have been trained for this again and as he also sits in my top three rated then he’s very much the horse I want to be with.

My top rated came as a surprise to me but as I said in the Podcast, the fact eight of the last 10 of these have been won by a Pipe or Nichols horse hopefully means I’m not a million miles away from being on the winner. I’ve had a 12/1 saver on Benvolio but for sure, our Podcast competition winners will be hoping my profiling is bang on.

WINCANTON 3-15

* – ROCK ON RUBY….+11
* – IRVING….+10
* – BERTIEMONT….+6
* – STARBUCK….+1
FOX NORTON….-2
* – FERGALL….-9
HINT OF MINT….-11
FORGOTTEN VOICE….-13
T* – PURPLE BAY….-15

MY PLAY – I’m pretty sure my figures are spot on here and the winner is in my top pair. My top rated is now in the wrong age group for winners of this race and so my only play here will be a straight win IRVING.

SANDOWN 2-30

T – NOTARFBAD….+10
* – CARRICKBOY….+10
T* – ROUDOUDOU VILLE….+9
* – SOUND INVESTMENT….+7
* – FOUNDATION MAN….-9
* – DOLATULO….-10
TOBY LERONE….-11
T – BARRAKILLA….-19
* – BALLY LEGEND….-25
* – TATENEN….-27
T – FILBERT….-32
NO BUTS….-37
FRECKLE FACE….-40

MY PLAY – I’ll be working with rated horse 2, 3 and 4….dutch, 20/80 CARRICKBOY and exotics…as they have previous winning form on today’s current going so, we’ll see how things pan out.

SANDOWN 3-05

T – KASHMIR PEAK….+10
* – DUBAWI ISLAND….+8
T* – TORNADO IN MILAN….-17
THEINVAL….-20
* – CARRY ON SYDNEY….-23
MYSTERY DRAMA….-29
THE BROCK AGAIN….-32
EXITAS….-40
VALID REASON….-40
T – SECRET DANCER….-40
RHAMNUS….-40

MY PLAY – Another top rated horse that has yet to win on today’s ground as currently described but no shock if he does it today. Again though, Mr Pedantic will be looking to those that have got that * on their CV’s and it’s rated horses 2, 3 and 5 for my own bets….usual stuff.

SANDOWN 3-40

* – WILTON MILAN….+2
SAROQUE….+/-0
* – BEFOREALL….-9
TULLAMORE DEW….-10
* – LOCH BA….-12
T* – LOOKSLIKERAINTED….-12
T – WOODFORD COUNTY….-22
* – LE REVE….-29
CAULFIELDS VENTURE….-33

MY PLAY – Very pleased to see that one top rated as I mentioned on the Podcast that I fancied him to run well, giving my reasons for believing that. He has to learn to pick his feet up and if he gets beaten it’ll most likely be because he has walloped a few on the way around.

Rated horses 1, 3 and 5 are were I’ll be looking but my top rated gets the 20/80 irrespective of anything else.

KELSO 1-40

T* – THE LAST SAMURAI….+12
* – SCOTSWELL….-1
* – MR UTAH….-6
FOURTH ESTATE….-9
* – SAMSTOWN….-18
* – NEPTUNE EQUESTER….-19
* – LOS NADIS….-22

MY PLAY – Donald McCain saddles two of my top rated today and I do not know whether to laugh or cry.

He has again been very slow out of the blocks this season and it’s with a heavy heart i say I’ll work with my top pair to my usual play.

KELSO 2-15

* – FENTARA….+17
* – WOLF SHIELD….+13
* – MISTER MARKER….+9
* – ISLA PEARL FISHER….-3
* – MCMURROUGH….-4
PINEROLO….-14

MY PLAY – The winner is in my top pair or I lose money here.

KELSO 2-50

T* – SWIFT ARROW….+12
* – SUPRISE VENDOR….+4
ROCKAWANGO….+/-0
* – TOLEDO GOLD….+/-0
* – QUITO DU TRESOR….+/-0
* – QUICUYO….-5
* – FIRTH OF CLYDE….-6
AUTHINGER….-11

MY PLAY – Top pair again the horses i’ll be using. Again though, that McCain horse sitting top is giving me the jitters. That yard has sent out more sighters than me in the last month!

KELSO 4-00

SOME LAD….+5
WAKHAN….-4
* – SHINE A DIAMOND….-5
AZERODEGREE….-13
TRAPPRAIN….-19
THURLAK….-20

MY PLAY – Tempted to leave this, given only one has winning form on today’s ground. A clear top rated though so I’ll think about this as we go through the day.

PROFILED RACES

I have profiled the first race on the card at Kelso. Enough empirical data exists to enable me to get a handle on it.

KELSO 12-30

This might seem a strange one to be profiling but it does have an order to it and most certainly a race in which a pattern can clearly be seen.
Eight of the last 10 runnings have gone to a 5-6 year old so we’ll cull the rest and produce a shortlist containing:

ALWAYSINCOMMAND
DONNA’S DIAMOND
GOLAN’S CHOICE
KINGSWELL THEATRE
LOOKING WELL
THE LAST LEG
COOLANURE
QUEENS REGATTA

Only one of the last 10 winners has carried less than 10st 6lb and we’ll get rid of the two at the bottom of that list as they’ve only 1st 5lb.

ALWAYSINCOMMAND
DONNA’S DIAMOND
GOLAN’S CHOICE
KINGSWELL THEATRE
LOOKING WELL
THE LAST LEG

Down to six. We can shorten it still further by removing horses that failed to win or place last time out. It’s a fact that eight of the last 10 winners had done so, so, something in that, perhaps.

DONNA’S DIAMOND
GOLAN’S CHOICE
KINGSWELL THEATRE
LOOKING WELL

Favourites have finished in the first three in eight of the last 10 renewals so LOOKING WELL can be safely utilised for Placepot purposes but, only one of the last six favourites has managed to win, four of the last six sited 2nd or 3rd best on the tissue.

Using that to pin down a final pair we have:

GOLAN’S CHOICE
KINGSWELL THEATRE

A dutch that pair with exotics might well be a way to go here but for those looking to just one for a 20/80, then it’s KINGSWELL THEATRE.

Trainer Lucinda Russell has run six in this over the course of the last 10 years and enjoyed one winner and two placed horses.

POST RACING PROFILE HORSE = KINGSWELL THEATRE – 20/80

I do expect the favourite, LOOKING WELL, to run a big race. Nicky Richards had a very good one left in at the 48 hour decs stage that I would have expected to win it. I’ll stick with what I have though and we’ll what transpires.

Kindest regards

Ron

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