Over the course of Saturday and Sunday I produced 15 rated races and the top rated horse (which is a decent enough indicator as to how things are working) won three, was second in three, third in three, fourth in one and unplaced in five.
More than that though, the winner was to be found in the top three rated horses in eight of those rated races, in the top four in nine, top five in 11 and in the top six (my own starting point once the figures have been compiled), on no fewer than 12 of the 15 rated races.
That’s the accuracy I would love to see happen on a daily basis.
Hopefully we do manage to steer clear of those rains that ruined racing last winter and if we do, we should enjoy a good time of it.
I had an interesting discussion regarding the concept of value with a couple of guys on Facebook and it’s not a word you will ever here me utter as a reason for selecting a horse to win a race. It’s something I will do a piece about for the website and your thoughts would be very much appreciated.
Just to say that for me personally, it’s something that exists solely in the head of the person seeking it.
What does seem to happen to some seeking it though is they scoff at those who never use the word. It seems, with some, to have taken on the pretentiousness of the wine taster and unless you can discuss “notes”, and compare the wine to several varieties of fruits, enhanced with smoke and chimney dust, you cannot possibly enjoy it….or make a profit from horse racing….or betting on anything for that matter.
The definition of value (if there can be one) might be, “betting on something you believe to have been priced incorrectly”. By inference you must, therefore, have the ability to produce a book for every race you are considering betting on….or football match. Not only that but, you must also be of the illusion that you are better than those working for bookmakers, that have done likewise. You might well be!
Once you have compiled your tissue, you then compare it to those prices offered by the layers and if you find one you believe should be shorter than that offered, you have “value”.
So, do you then back every single 100/1 shot you believe should be 75/1?
I believe the accuracy of my figures gives me an “edge” and if you wish to say I’m finding “value” because of that, be my guest but you will only ever here me say my figures were good or, they were not.
Either way the intention is, long term, to beat the layers and for me, you can call it what you like….I’ll settle for profitable.
Three races from Ayr today and hopefully the accuracy remains.
Ayr / Mon 27 Oct
Updated @ Mon 27 Oct
Good to Soft (GoingStick: Ch: 8.2; Hdl: 8.1 on Monday at 06:15)
Rails: All tracks on the innermost line with divided bends.
Past 24hrs 5 mm of rain. Monday- Variable cloud, sunny spells, low risk of showers early a.m. (< 2mm) Recent rainfall: since Friday 10th = 53 mm.
* – indicates winner on ground at the time of rating the race
T – indicates having travelled more than 150 miles to race today
H – Indicates wearing some form of headgear for first time today
THE NH FIGURES BELOW ARE NOT YET FIT FOR PURPOSE! “SIGHTERS” ONLY!!
* – MY IDEA….+10
T – DEGOOCH….+9
T* – MUWALLA….-13
T – GIBBSTOWN….+14
T* – NOIR GIRL….+5
T – MIDNIGHT STREAKER….-20
H – I GOT SUNSHINE….-35
SIR TANTALUS HAWK….-37
STREAMS OF WHISKY….-6
T* – WATER GARDEN….-7
T – CATEGORICAL….-11
* – ROWDY ROCHER….-12
T* – EVERAARD….-17
* – PRESENTING JUNIOR….-21
T – ALWAYS RIGHT….-29