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Today’s Ratings and Advice 04/10/14

Ron RobinsonThe podcast very rarely fails to deliver you a profit and if you listened in this week you will have heard me tell you of a horse that would be winning at Wolverhampton last night. It won by six lengths. The price, 4/11, is immaterial (you could have got 2/5), what I knew was that this horse was a stone or more better than the race it was running in. When you know something like that, it’s going to take divine intervention to stop it winning.

In the Newsletter yesterday I posted just one horse up in the OF INTEREST section….it won by just over a length and was advised a straight win bet. It was the first such horse posted on the new website in it’s relevant section so I was pleased with that!

As I say, the Ratings between now and the end of this month are purely “sighters”. I have no intention of using them for punting purposes. What you should be doing with them is simply keeping an eye on them for signs of life. You will spot it at exactly the same time I do.

Last year trainers deliberately kept their strings back by around two weeks and it was not until the middle of November that they started producing what they normally produce from November 1st. I myself has Badger Day at Wincanton marked down as the day I will take aim.

TODAY

It’s pelting down where I am, it’s getting colder and I am genuinely pleased I’m getting away from this for a week from the 14th.

I have three Rated races from Fontwell down below and those that are “OF INTEREST”. If it were Badger Day in the middle of December I’d be all over my top rated horses like the proverbial bad rash but, it’s not and I aint.

I have also been asked to take a loo at Ascot and Longchamp as we have members attending both meetings so, I’ve done my best to help pout but, confession time, my knowledge of what’s going on in France and French form lines are probably worth diddly. We’ll see.

ONE FOR YOUR TRACKERS

Do you recall, in 2012, that I advised you to put one in your trackers called WONDERFUL CHARM, at around this time of year? I explained to you that this horse had to run, and win, in October because as a French bought horse it had to do so because, having already run over there, it would lose it’s novice status here on november 1st?

It duly ran, and won, in October.

I have another such horse for you.

AYALOR

Now, i’m not actually sure you can put it in a tracker just yet because it’s not been entered for a race and doesn’t exist in any tracker database so, you’ll have to pop it in a Notebook….I will do so on the website so please keep referring back to that section.

The horse raced once in France and won. Hopefully it’s 2-2 by October 31st.

ASSUMPTIONS:

I am afraid I cannot bring you up to date going guides as the BHA website is not loading.

Today is very much for watching only. Sean and I have mentioned a couple in the Podcast that are worth keeping an eye on but for me it’s those juvenile races at Newmarket that are catching my eye.

Below are my figures for Fontwell plus, my thoughts on those races being run at Ascot and Longchamp.

Be aware that the rains are falling and so much can change between now and off time.

* – indicates winner on ground at the time of rating the race
§ – perceived as best drawn
T – indicates having travelled more than 150 miles to race today
H – Indicates wearing some form of headgear for first time today

THE FIGURES BELOW ARE NOT YET FIT FOR PURPOSE! “SIGHTERS” ONLY!!

FONTWELL 3-20

* – ONE LUCKY LADY….+10
* – WORKBENCH….+9
* – HENRYVILLE….+9
* – BALLY LEGEND….+8
* – FOXCUB….+3
HI NOTE….-6

FONTWELL 3-55

* – THE NEPHEW….+12
* – PORTERS WAY…+9
* – VENETIAN LAD….+1
T* – FOREVER MY FRIEND….-2
* – UP FOR AN OSCAR….-13
* – VIOLETS BOY….-14

FONTWELL 4-30

* – THE KINGS ASSASSIN….+8
* – SAFE INVESTMENT….+4
* – ORSM….-8
* – CUBISM….-18
* – THE WEE MIDGET….-19
TANG ROYAL….-32
REGAL FLOW….-34
AALY….-40

ASCOT PROFILE RACE

This went up on the website yesterday but just in case you have not had an opportunity to visit the new site….

I have, as I said in the Podcast, been a bit hard on myself regarding the Cambridgeshire as I did indeed reach a crossroads, go left and it was draw bias, go right and it was age grouping. Both were narrow lanes as neither really gave me a definitive to work with but, I went left.

I should have gone right. Had I done so we would have had a right old result. But that is gambling/decision making.

This week I am again, I know it, going to reach that, or some other, crossroads.

The first thing I’m doing with this race is looking for my winner within the weight range of 8st 7lb and 8st 13lb. I’ve gone down this path because half of the last 10 winners were in that range. My first shortlist revolves around:

REDVERS
HIGHLAND ACCLAIM
HEAVY METAL
SILENT BULLET
FORT BASTION

All carry 8st 12lb

I was looking at the draw to help me out here but the last four winners have been drawn 2, 13, 4, 12 so I’m going next to the market to help me out.

The last four winners have come home priced 9/1, 6/1, 17/2 and 7/1 so, the market, despite the large field and it being end of season, generally has this bang to rights.

I will rule out anything with a double figure price….this leaves:

REDVERS
HIGHLAND ACCLAIM

The winner of seven of the last 10 of these was sitting cosy in the top four on the tissue. Both qualify.

I referred to age grouping earlier and here I am at a crossroads again.

Highland Acclaim is a 3-y-o and given only 41 have contested this in the last 10 years it’s a good old strike rate that this age grouping boasts, three winners and eight placed horses from that 41.

Redvers, who is a very hard horse to win with, is a six year old and horses aged 5+ have, in the last 10 years supplied three winners and 18 placed horses but from 102 runners.

No tossing of coins here, I’m going down the 3-y-o route and suggesting that if you are betting this race, you trust to David O’Meara’s HIGHLAND ACCLAIM.

POST RACING PROFILE HORSE = HIGHLAND ACCLAIM 20/80

I would not be looking to put anyone off playing that pair in a dutch or looking at those exotics.

The rest of the card….

2-05….I cannot see past MUTHMIR. If he doesn’t win that race it’s proof positive we need to pack up now!

2-40….covered in the Podcast and I’ve not changed my mind…still PETHERS MOON for me.

3-15….with a shrug of the shoulders I’ll suggest a 20/80 on last years winner, TROPICS but any of about eight could quite easily win this.

3-50….profiled above.

4-25….3-y-o’s have won the last 10 of these so only look at that age group. Haggas has a strong hand here and I rather have a small 20/80 MEETING WATERS than a straight in bet FELWAH at the restive odds.

5-00…I have as much clue as you. The majority of these have been on the go all season and it’s a race that explains fully why I have put the betting boots away. If you genuinely have to bet then maybe KHUBALA to a very small 20/80.

LONGCHAMP

CIRRUS DES AIGLES looks a certainty in the Dollar but now I’m playing dip, dip dip with the rest….

Using my way of Rating races then in the 1-30 I’d be on BAINO HOPE to a 20/80 and in the 2-40 ZARSHANA straight win but that 2-08…strange “off times” they have….I have it down to three and if I had to bet, it would be another little 20/80 LA HOGUETTE

The very best of luck if you are still indulging!

Kindest regards

Ron

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