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Ascot 3-50, Saturday 04/10/14 Profiling

Ron RobinsonI have, as I said in the Podcast, been a bit hard on myself regarding the Cambridgeshire as I did indeed reach a crossroads, go left and it was draw bias, go right and it was age grouping. Both were narrow lanes as neither really gave me a definitive to work with but, I went left.

I should have gone right. Had I done so we would have had a right old result. But that is gambling/decision making.

This week I am again, I know it, going to reach that, or some other,  crossroads.

The first thing I’m doing with this race is looking for my winner within the weight range of 8st 7lb and 8st 13lb. I’ve gone down this path because half of the last 10 winners were in that range. My first shortlist revolves around:

REDVERS
HIGHLAND ACCLAIM
HEAVY METAL
SILENT BULLET
FORT BASTION

All carry 8st 12lb

I was looking at the draw to help me out here but the last four winners have been drawn 2, 13, 4, 12 so I’m going next to the market to help me out.

The last four winners have come home priced 9/1, 6/1, 17/2 and 7/1 so, the market, despite the large field and it being end of season, generally has this bang to rights.

I will rule out anything with a double figure price….this leaves:

REDVERS
HIGHLAND ACCLAIM

The winner of seven of the last 10 of these was sitting cosy in the top four on the tissue. Both qualify.

I referred to age grouping earlier and here I am at a crossroads again.

Highland Acclaim is a 3-y-o and given only 41 have contested this in the last 10 years it’s a good old strike rate that this age grouping boasts, three winners and eight placed horses from that 41.

Redvers, who is a very hard horse to win with, is a six year old and horses aged 5+ have, in the last 10 years supplied three winners and 18 placed horses but from 102 runners.

No tossing of coins here, I’m going down the 3-y-o route and suggesting that if you are betting this race, you trust to David O’Meara’s HIGHLAND ACCLAIM.

POST RACING PROFILE HORSE = HIGHLAND ACCLAIM 20/80

I would not be looking to put anyone off playing that pair in a dutch or looking at those exotics.

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