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Today’s Ratings and Advice 27/09/14

Ron RobinsonI have been getting this lot sorted out since Thursday and have a figure for over 180 horses running today.

I also got the Cambridgeshire profiling up on the website yesterday and that has been added to the Ratings for that race below.

I will be adding my own play once they are entered up on the website and if you require my ramblings everything should be up by 11-00am.

Best we crack on!

ASSUMPTIONS:

Haydock Park / Sat 27 Sep
Updated @ Sat 27 Sep
Going/Track
Good, Good to Soft in Places (Watered) (GoingStick: 8.4 on Saturday at 06:30)
Rails: All races will run on the Stand Side Home Straight. Actual race distances 5f 6f 1m 57yds 1m 2f 152yds 1m 6f 107yds
Stalls: Centre: 5f, 6f, 1m2f. Inside: 1m, 1m6f.

Weather
1mm of rain before racing on Friday. Dry since. Bright dry day forecast
Newmarket / Sat 27 Sep
Updated @ Sat 27 Sep
Going/Track
Good to Firm (Good in places) (GoingStick: 7.6 (Stand Side 7.4; Centre 7.5; Far Side 7.8) on Friday at 10:00)
Stalls: Far Side Course 12f Centre Remainder Far Side

Weather
Dry on Friday & overnight. Saturday; Dry and with sunny spells 20C

Ripon / Sat 27 Sep
Updated @ Sat 27 Sep
Going/Track
Good (Watered) (GoingStick: 8.1 on Saturday at 06:00)
Rails: Rail on innermost position, no additional yards added
Stalls: Straight course – Stand side Round course – Inside rail

Weather
Dry since Thursday morning. Saturday – Partly cloudy with sunny periods – 17c
Chester / Sat 27 Sep
Updated @ Sat 27 Sep
Going/Track
Good to Soft, Good in Places (GoingStick: 6.7 on Wednesday at 15:00)
Rails: The running rail has been returned to the very inside, this means all race distances will be as advertised.
Stalls: 1m 2f – Outside, All other races – Inside

Weather
5mm of rain on Tuesday but dry since. Forecast: Dry with sunny spells, max daytime temp of 20c.

* – indicates winner on ground at the time of rating the race
§ – perceived as best drawn
T – indicates having travelled more than 150 miles to race today
H – Indicates wearing some form of headgear for first time today

CHESTER 2-30

HADAJ….+9
* – PANDAR….-5
§* – WITHENSEA….-11
§ – AMBITIOUS BOY….-11
§* – VERUS DELICIA….-15
* – MEANDMYSHADOW….-15
* – BABY STRANGE….-16
H – PUSHKIN MUSEUM….-19
T§ – TAGULA NIGHT….-23
T* – GRAVITATIONAL….-25
T§ – BETHANY BOY….-32
T§ – SURETY….-32
DUTCH BLADE….-32
CHESTER ARISTOCRAT….-35
T – BLAINE….-40
AL MANAAL….-40

MY PLAY – A couple in my top six marked §* and my top rated the only horse in here obtaining a + figure….I will have them onside.

THREE TO DUTCH – HADAJ, WITHENSEA, VERUS DELICIA
20/80 – WITHENSEA
EXOTICS – HADAJ, WITHENSEA, VERUS DELICIA
LAY – NONE

CHESTER 4-50

T* – ATHLETIC….+12
§* – NEWSTEAD ABBEY….+11
§* – MARCRET….+9
§* – REGAL PARADE….+8
* – DUBAI DYNAMO….+3
§ – SECRET LOOK….-6
* – MEHDI….-7
T§ – LINCOLN….-15
T – NAKUTI….-18
T – MAVERIK….-20
GATEPOST….-20
ROYAL RASCAL….-21
T – DESERT LAW….-30

MY PLAY – My top rated has an awful draw and for that reason i’ll omit him from my bets here. The trio directly below him do get the gig and i’ll play as usual.

THREE TO DUTCH – NEWSTEAD ABBEY, MARCRET, REGAL PARADE
20/80 – NEWSTEAD ABBEY
EXOTICS – NEWSTEAD ABBEY, MARCRET, REGAL PARADE
LAY – NONE

HAYDOCK 3-35

* – BOP IT….+11
T§* – APRICOT SKY….+11
§ – BARRACUDA BOY….+9
§* – WHOZTHECAT….+8
§* – MY NAME IS RIO….+3
T* – ZERO MONEY….-3
T* – CAPTAIN BOB….-3
* – CRUISETOTHELIMIT….-3
§* – NEW BIDDER….-4
* – EL VIENTO….-6
* – SECRET WITNESS….-12
* – EXPOSE….-20
§ – JAMAICAN BOLT….-26
THE HOODED CLAW….-31
RUN WITH PRIDE….-34
T – MUIR LODGE….-40

MY PLAY – As much as I like my top rated i have three getting both icons §* and i’m dutching etc….

THREE TO DUTCH – APRICOT SKY, WHOZTHECAT, MY NAME IS RIO
20/80 – APRICOT SKY
EXOTICS – APRICOT SKY, WHOZTHECAT, MY NAME IS RIO
LAY – NONE

HAYDOCK 4-10

T§ – HIGH ON LIFE….+17
* – ONLINE ALEXANDER….+10
T* – COUNTER RIDGE….+9
§ – SMOOTHTALKINRASCAL….+9
§* – SEE THE SUN….+8
* – PETERKIN….+8
* – LEXI’S HERO….+8
* – NORMAL EQUILIBRIUM….+6
T§* – GOLDREAM….+5
* – ALGAR LAD….+4
§ – DA’QUONDE….-4
§* – JUDGE ‘N JURY….-7
T* – CHILWORTH ICON….-12
H – LONG AWAITED….-20
RACY….-27
BALLESTEROS….-31
T§ – ELUSIVITY….-33

MY PLAY – i have an uneasy feeling regarding this one. Three in my top six that are good to go on the ground and I’m taking them for my dutch, 20/80 and exotics.

THREE TO DUTCH – ONLINE ALEXANDER, COUNTER RIDGE, SEE THE SUN
20/80 – SEE THE SUN
EXOTICS – ONLINE ALEXANDER, COUNTER RIDGE, SEE THE SUN
LAY – NONE

HAYDOCK 4-45

* – GIFT OF SILENCE….+15
T§* – TEARS OF THE SUN….+9
HOT COFFEE….+8
§* – MAVEN…..+8
§* – COSMIC SUN….-1
§ – MARACUJA….-1
T* – BRIGHT CECILY….-4
T§ – PATTERNED….-6
T* – THIS IS THE DAY….-14
T* – LIZZIE TUDOR….-18
T – ROSEHILL ARTIST….-23
T* – LADY TIANA….-24
T – SHIAMA….-29
T – WHO’S THE CHICK….-35
T – FLEMISH SCHOOL….-37

MY PLAY – Four non-runners already and this one is falling apart. I’ll have a think but right now Gift Of Silence, Tears Of The Sun and Maven are the ones I am happy to play here. We definitely seem to have a “sun” thing going on!

THREE TO DUTCH – GIFT OF SILENCE, TEARS OF THE SUN, MAVEN
20/80 – TEARS OF THE SUN
EXOTICS – GIFT OF SILENCE, TEARS OF THE SUN, MAVEN
LAY – NONE

HAYDOCK 5-50

* – BALDUCCI….+15
T* – ENERGIA FLAVIO….+12
§* – GLOBAL THRILL….+11
T* – MISTER MUSIC….+10
* – IFWECAN….+9
§* – SIR GUY PORTEUS….+9
* – NAVAJO CHIEF….+9
T§ – BOOM AND BUST….-2
* – PRINCE OF JOHANNE….-5
§ – LE CHAT D’OR….-7
BOLD PREDICTION….-9
T – BIG BAZ….-14

MY PLAY – I will have my top one with rated horses 3 and 6.

THREE TO DUTCH – BALDUCCI, GLOBAL THRILL, SIR GUY PORTEOUS
20/80 – GLOBAL THRILL
EXOTICS – BALDUCCI, GLOBAL THRILL, SIR GIUY PORTEOUS
LAY – BIG BAZ

NEWMARKET 3-50

§* – BANCNUANHEIRANN….+17
* – QUICK WIT….+17
§* – TENOR….+15
§* – CORNROW….+10
EDUCATE….+10
§* – VELOX….+9
BUCKSTAY….+8
* – DANCE AND DANCE….+8
* – NICEOFYOUTOTELLME….+8
T* – FORT BASTION….+5
T* – BARTACK….+4
T§* – INGLEBY ANGEL….+4
§- MAVERICK WAVE….+1
T§* – SPIRIT OF THE LAW….-3
* – ENERGIA DAVOS….-5
§* – QUEENSBURY RULES….-7
T§* – GABRIAL’S KAKA….-9
* – HOMAGE….-12
§* – BOOMSHACKERLAKER….-15
T* – BRONZE ANGEL….-17
T* – TRES CORONAS….-23
* – YEAGER….-24
* – GOD WILLING….-30
T* – BIG JOHNNY D….-35
T* – SOUND ADVICE….-35
T* – BALTY BOYS….-35
FORGOTTEN HERO….-40
EXTREMITY….-40
GENIUS BOY….-40
T – CHANCERY….-40
§ – THE RECTIFIER….-40
T – INDIAN CHIEF….-40
§ – TIGERS TALE….-40
T – PACIFIC HEIGHTS….-40
SPA’S DANCER….-40

MY PLAY – Great to see the two shortlisted in Profiling in my top six. I trust profiling over Ratings when we see such prize money on offer as trainers get their horses ready for such races and the stats very rarely lie. If you favour Ratings then it’s Rated horses 1, 3 and 4 going to work for you.

PROFILING

To say this is competitive would be an understatement and if I’m anyway close, be it with ratings or Profiling, I’ll be seriously pleased.

The last 10 winners have produced four aged five or older, three aged four and three aged three so, we’ve not got a lot to work with when it comes to that stat. You would have to be amongst the most pedantic to suggest older horses are favoured.

The weight range throws up a decent clue though. Six of the last 10 carried no more than 8st 13lb and no less than 8st 7lb….and three of the last four fell within that range, too.

That would give me a shortlist of 18, which is not a shortlist so, I’ll apply that fact to my next stat tells me the last six winners could have been located within the first six on the tissue. First shortlist then composed of weight range.tissue price.

I’m using William Hills tissue and those horses currently priced to keep me in that top “six”….three trading 16/1….we have

CORNROW
VELOX
BRONZE ANGEL
EXTREMITY
EDUCATE
NICEOFYOUTOTELLME
QUEENSBURY RULES

Those we can take out on account of weight are:

EDUCATE
QUEENSBURY RULES

New shortlist:

CORNROW
VELOX
BRONZE ANGEL
EXTREMITY
NICEOFYOUTOTELLME

You almost certainly need a double figure draw as it’s a fact seven of the last 10 did so….

…all qualify on that count. However, I’m going to look to horses drawn 20 or higher. Five of the last 10 had such a box to break from and the other five are a bit of a mishmash, a spread of low double figure stalls and single figure draws.

Only two of those above make the final shortcut:

CORNROW
VELOX

In such a race I’d certainly be looking to dutch that brace and that will be done.

For those looking for a single play what I would do is suggest we take into account the record of the relevant trainers of that pair, in this race.

John Gosden, who saddles CORNROW, has sent nine horses for this event in the last 10 rungs and won twice. Luca Cumani, who knows how to ready one for a big handicap, has also saddled nine previous runners but managed just one placing.

POST RACING PROFILE HORSE – CORNROW – 20/80

NEWMARKET 5-35

T* – LADY FRANCES….+7
§* – TAKE A NOTE….+3
T* – KING TORUS….=3
* – RED REFLECTION….+/-0
§* – VALBCHEK….-1
* – STEVENTON STAR….-5
§* – VOICE OF A LEADER….-7
* – PASTORAL PLAYER….-14
H§* – SUZI’S CONNISSEUR….-15
* – JOEY’S DESTINY….-21
§ – ONE WORD MORE….-24
* – EVENING ATTIRE….-25
SECRETINTHEPARK….-25
JACK’S REVENGE….-26
ACCESSION….-30

MY PLAY – Again another I’m thinking is best left alone or played to very small staking. If i get involved it’ll be rated horses 1, 2 and 5 on my slip.

RIPON 3-55

T* – DEEDS NOT WORDS….+14
* – BONDESIRE….+14
H* – ANGUS OG….+14
T* – SEEKING MAGIC….+13
* – BARKSTON ASH….+11
* – SPINATRIX….+10
T§* – CLEAR SPRING….+10
§* – KIMBERELLA….+10
§ – AVON BREEZE….+9
* – SUPPLICANT….+8
§ – CONFESSIONAL….-6
THE HOODED CLAW….-10

MY PLAY – The racing here today is stunning…as good as anywhere. I actually fancied CLEAR SPRING before I put numbers down but despite a figure of +10 it sits outside my top six! I will put faith in my figures and work with my top trio.

THREE TO DUTCH – DEEDS NOT WORDS, BONDESIRE, ANGUS OG
20/80 – DEEDS NOT WORDS
EXOTICS – DEEDS NOT WORDS, BONDESIRE, ANGUS OG
LAY – NONE

RIPON 4-30

* – BRIGADOON….+8
* – MAYBEME….+7
RIO’S ROSANNA….+5
* – MAMBO RHYTHM….-5
* – NORTHSIDE PRINCE….-13
* – BAYAN KASIRGA….–21
* – ARIZONA JOHN…-25
* – AMBLESIDE….-27
* – ITLAAQ….-29
T – SAOI….-37

MY PLAY – Simply the top three marked * to October Rules. Not a race I’m as sweet on but very competitive.

RIPON 5-40

* – ADAM’S ALE….+13
* – GOWANHARRY….+9
§* – PERFECT WORDS….+9
* – MISTER MANANNAN….++9
* – JOFRANKA….+7
§* – BONDI BEACH BOY….+1
§* – SINGEUR….-1
§ – BROTHER TED….-7
* – NOODLES BLUE BOY….-7
§* – PATUREYES….-8
§* – PERFECT BLOSSOM….-15
CAPTAIN DUNNE….-16
LEXINGTON PLACE….-17
MEADWAY….-18
BISPHAM BGREEN….-21
KENNY THE CAPTAIN….-25

MY PLAY – BONDI BEACH BOY goes again and has done me proud on it’s last two outings. I’ll have it in my dutch with ADAM’S ALE and PERFECT WORDS….my solo play going the way of the last named and, I’ll play those exotics, too.

THREE TO DUTCH – ADAM’S ALE, PERFECT WORDS, BONDI BEACH BOY
20/80 – PERFECT WORDS
EXOTICS – ADAM’S ALE, PERFECT WORDS, BONDI BEACH BOY
LAY – NONE

The very best of luck if you get involved today,

Kindest regards

Ron

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