It was this week last year that saw us drop around 40 points of the substantial profits we had made during the 2013 flat racing season, as we dropped from 400+ to 370+ points profit (which was still pretty darned smokey, if I may say so myself).
If you have ever wondered what I’m referring to when I speak of “October Rules”, let me explain.
We have two months of the year when I consider backing horses to win races every bit as perilous as bear wrestling.
October and April are the “changeover” months. The flat boys start winding things down during October, whilst the NH lads start sending out their “sighters”, to gauge the race fitness of their strings. In April, it’s the reverse. I myself stops betting and those boots get put away during those months.
Yesterday we witnessed a couple of results that have you looking and wondering….such as Baccarat getting turned over @ 1/3. This is a horse that was beaten just six lengths in a Haydock Group 1 not so long ago and he should have been able to win that race yesterday pulling a cart. Instead, he was beaten 11 lengths into a well beaten fourth of five runners.
The fact is, a lot of these handicappers have been on the go all season and you will see some very funky results over the next five or six weeks.
Look at those races at Hamilton today.
In the first rated race we have horses that raced only yesterday, a horse that was pulled out because of the ground (won’t be any different today), and Linda Perratt lobbing four in that have already had 35 races between them this season. The lightest raced of them, Pitt Pivers (2 runs), has finished plum last in five of it’s last seven races and needs softer ground than it’ll see today. That means the other three have had 33 races between them this term. They’ll need a holiday more than I will!
For what it’s worth I have spotted up a draw bias but I’m quite confident non-runners will spog that right enough.
I have to keep cracking on for the purposes of the review currently being conducted but I’m thinking this next seven days may well blow a significant hole in the profits gleaned!
I am going to be treading very warily. I suggest you do likewise.
From October 1st it’s NH racing that takes over. You will receive figures for racing taking place over jumps but you have to remember they are not for betting on. they are “sighters”. I am looking for signs, clues, and you yourself will spot what’s happening.
You know it’s getting nearer the time for things to start hotting up when you get to read about Nicky Henderson getting ready and an introduction to some of his horses, new and old, in the Racing Post.
Bring it on!
Hamilton Park / Mon 22 Sep
Updated @ Sun 21 Sep
Good, Good to Firm in places (Watered) (GoingStick: 7.0 on Sunday at 07:00)
Rails: All official distances and standard Safety Factors apply for all starts.
Stalls: 6F & 1M 3F – Standside 1M & 1M 1F – Inside
Watering: 15mm applied to the whole course earlier in the week. Light irrigation of home straight (3-4mm) Sat am.
0.6mm rain in last 24 hours. Much colder morning (3C); forecast dry and plenty of sunshine today and tomorrow (Max Temp 17C).
Leicester / Mon 22 Sep
Updated @ Sun 21 Sep
Good to Firm, Good in places (Selective watering) (GoingStick: 7.9 on Sunday at 07:30)
Stalls: Straight- Stands side. Round- Inside
Watering: 1-2 mm of selective watering on Sunday morning
Dry overnight. Forecast: Sunday- Dry with sunny spells max temp 17c. Monday- Dry with sunny spells max temp 18c.
* – indicates winner on ground at the time of rating the race
§ – perceived as best drawn
T – indicates having travelled more than 150 miles to race today
H – Indicates wearing some form of headgear for first time today
§* – ROCK CANYON….+9
T§ – BEARSKIN….+9
T* – SLIM CHANCE….+8
T* – AMIS REUNIS….+7
T* – STONEACRE OSKAR….+5
T§* – SEE VERMONT….+4
T§ – DREAM ALLY….+3
* – RYLEE MOOCH….-2
T – ECONOMIC CRISIS….-13
T§ – RIO SANDS….-16
T§ – CAPTAIN SCOOBY….-17
HT – VERY FIRST BLADE….-18
T* – KING OF PARADISE….+11
§* – REMEMBER ROCKY….+10
§* – ROYAL STRAIGHT….+8
* – DHAULAR DHAR….-2
* – MAY’S BOY….-6
T§ – DABUKI….-10
T§ – MERCHANT OF MEDICI….-18
T – SNOW DANCER….-19
T – TRIPLE EIGHT….-20
§ – HENPECKED….-21
T – SMIRFY’S BLACKCAT….-23
T* – INDIAN GIVER….+12
T – STAFFHOSS….+4
* – EBONY CLARETS….-7
T* – VIOLENT VELOCITY….-10
T – RUST….-11
T – ROCKY’S PRIDE….-12
T* – SPAVENTO….+9
T* – OUTLAW TORN….-7
T* – LAST DESTINATION….-10
T* – LIL SOPHELLA….-16
* – RAISE A BILLION….-25
T – SMIRFY’S SILVER….-40
MY PLAY – Top three dutch, a small 20/80 SPAVENTO and exotics but for sure, buttons only being bet.
* – SILVANUS….+13
* – HOLLEY SHIFTWELL….+9
* – EXTRASOLAR….-9
* – SMART DAISY K….-15
JUDGE ‘N JURY….-40
MY PLAY – I will get after this race in exactly the same way as that last at Hamilton. It’s Monday, darned nearly October and for sure I’ll not be heavily involved.
* – COMMANCHERO….+9
* – CINCUENTA PASOS….-4
* – ALPINE STORY….-11
H* – SIOUXPERHERO….-14
* – VAINGLORY….-19
* – BLACK DAVE….-22
MY PLAY – I have one a mile clear on my numbers and I’ll go 20/80 COMMANCHE. Top three dutch to October Rules to cover that and my exotics.
The very best of luck if you get involved today,