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Today’s Ratings and Advice 07/09/14

After 24 rated races in just two days, we have just a lone event at York to have a look at today and those figures etc are below.

It’s Sunday and I’ll kick of with my Saturday review.

I’m going to kick off with the race profiling provided for the Old Borough Cup. From e-mails and messages received a fair few tootled over to the website to read it and trousered a handsome profit from it.

This is what was available….

OLD BOROUGH CUP

As I no longer “rate” races over 12 furlongs in distance I felt, despite only having nine yard of data to work with, this was worth a peek and hopefully we’ll pilfer a profit from it.

Don’t be expecting any big shock result. The last seven winners could have been found in the front five on the tissue. It’s also a fact that seven of the nine previous winners had arrived off the back of a win or a placed effort so, my first shortlist consists of horses that are “fancied” and that won or were in the first three home last time up:

HAVANA COOLER
EPSOM HILL
QUEST FOR MORE
HASSLE
NAUTILUS

All five fit the bill.

The favourite has finished in the first four home on all nine occasions and has won four of the last seven so, HAVANA COOLER simply has to be in the mix. His trainer, Luca Cumani, has only saddled three runners in this race previously and has seen one win, one place and one struggle home so, he’s not one for just throwing any old horse at it.

Likewise John Gosden, who has saddled just four runners, enjoyed one winner and three horses place. He saddles NAUTILUS.

Three year olds have a superb record in this race, too. Of the 12 that have taken in the nine previous runnings three have won and two have placed so, if a trainer believes he has one good enough to go then absolutely, get to the races. We have just one from that age group here, EPSOM HILL….currently second favourite.

Four year olds currently have the worst record, with horses 5+ having won four of the nine but we’ve nothing like as much information to make a firm decision on age grouping just yet….give me another five years.

Looking at all the stats and info I have at hand right now and whilst I am very happy the winner is named in that first shortlist, I’ve three I’d want onside:

HAVANA COOLER
NAUTILUS
EPSOM HILL

If it went soft I’d be all over the last named like a bad rash. However, those forecast rains have not yet materialised and so I will set up a dutch those three but, for those looking to play just one horse here I would suggest NAUTILUS 20/80 simply because he’s trading 13.5 as I type, compared to Havana Cooler’s 5.9

RESULT

NAUTILUS WON 10/1
EPSOM HILL 2ND 13/2

DUTCH, 20/80, 100/1 EXACTA, 66/1 CSF….I settled for that!

ASCOT 1-55

* – CORNROW….+9 – 3RD 4/1
T* – HEAVY METAL….+8
* – REDVERS….+8 – 2ND 7/1
§* – RED AVENGER….+4
T§* – CAPTAIN RAMIUS….+1
T* – LOUIS THE PIOUS….+1
T* – HIGHLAND ACCLAIM….-3
§ – PURCELL….-5
T* – DON’T CALL ME….-5
§* – SAFETY CHECK….-8 – WON 8/1
T§* – FORT BASTION….-10 – 4TH 20/1
* – FREE WHEELING….-10
T§* – ALMARGO….-13
T* – HAWKEYETHENOO….-14
§ – PASSING STAR….-20
T – PACIFIC HEIGHTS….-24
DAYS OF CONQUEST….-26
T – ALFRED HUTCHINSON….-40

MY PLAY – I am very much favouring middle drawn horses here but also recognise my top rated is wholly unexposed and if he improves as he potentially might, then it might all be academic.
I’m going to work with rated horses 1, 4 and 5 myself. part of me wants my top rated to whiz in for reviewing purposes but my bank manager will want RED AVENGER to prove up to the job.

We have a couple placed mid-ratings also well drawn with ground right….should be a good race this!

THREE TO DUTCH – CORNROW, RED AVENGER, CAPTAIN RAMIUS
20/80 – RED AVENGER
EXOTICS – CORNROW, RED AVENGER, CAPTAIN RAMIUS
LAY – NONE

RESULT – I did point out we had a couple mid-ratings that had everything spot on and the winner was there. I was not displeased with my figures here and my top rated very nearly got back up to win this, the drop in trip his undoing. He has run a cracking Cambridgshire trial though and will be tough to beat in that race.

ASCOT 4-40

§ – JOYS OF SPRING….-4 – 2ND 6/1
* – AUCTION….-8
§* – LULU THE ZULU….-15
* – ALZANTI….-15
T – ALPINE STORM….-18
FRAY….-19
T§* – SIMPLY SHINING….-22
BUREDEYMA….-24
§ – BOLD LASS….-32
§ – LAFTAH….-39
WHO’S THAT CHICK….-39
BROWN DIAMOND….-40
SUBTLE KNIFE….-40

MY PLAY – My seventh best has all in his favour…except for his rating. If one of my top six were to come out, he’d be in all my bets but, right now, it’s rated horses 2, 3 and 4 with LULU THE ZULU the 20/80, which will be the case whatever happens.

RESULT – Another top rated horse just failing to land the spoils…it can be very frustrating at times, this game. Ryan Moore rode a cracking race on her though and no complaints from this end.

ASCOT 5-15

* – RISKIT FOR A BISKIT….+10
§* – PERFECT MUSE….+9
§* – NEW FFOREST….+5
* – TAAJUB….+1 – 3RD 20/1
T* – RURAL CELEBRATION….+/-0 – 4TH 20/1
OH SO SASSY….-4
§* – SLIP SLIDING AWAY….-8
* – ZERO MONEY….-8
* – EXTRASOLAR….-13
FOXY FOREVER….-13
§* – SECRET MILLIONAIRE….-15
T* – BURNING THREAD….-15
* – GABBIANO….-17
* – SECRET WITNESS….-18
T* – ALGAR LAD….-19
MARMALADY….-28
§ – HOLLEY SHIFTWELL….-33
§ – TAURUS TWINS….-40

MY PLAY – Ultra competitive race and the only thing i can do is put faith in the ratings and punt accordingly.

THREE TO DUTCH – RISKIT FOR A BISKIT, PERFECT MUSE, NEW FFOREST
20/80 – PERFECT MUSE
EXOTICS – RISKIT FOR A BISKIT, PERFECT MUSE, NEW FFOREST
LAY – FOXY FOREVER

RESULT – Finding two in the first four home in this one was enough of an achievement! The first 10 past the post were priced 14/1 or bigger and there are simply some races you just hold yer hands up and say, “you got me”. What we did get right though was another lay of a bad favourite.

HAYDOCK 2-05

T§* – SLEEPY SIOUX….+20
§ – BEAR BEHIND….+12
§* – INXILE….+8
T* – NORMAL EQUILIBRIUM….+4
* – BORDERLESCOTT….-1
T – HIGH LIFE….-2
T* – KICKBOXER….-6
LONG AWAITED….-9
T* – VALBCHEK….-13
§ – CONFESSIONAL….-14
T* – DOCTOR PARKES….-20
BARNET FAIR….-29

MY PLAY – When I first looked at this one VALBCHEK winked at me but, it’s down the league on my numbers and I’ll trust to what I have.

THREE TO DUTCH – SLEEPY SIOUX, INXILE, NORMAL EQUILIBRIUM
20/80 – SLEEPY SIOUX
EXOTICS – SLEEPY SIOUX, INXILE, NORMAL EQUILIBRIUM
LAY – BARNET FAIR

RESULT – Lay advice has been very thin on the ground this last few weeks but we got a bad favourite beaten here (t’was favourite when the advice went out!). Three years olds are the bane of my life in these all aged handicaps and the winner of this was the third such beats to scupper in rated races. I’ll have them by the scruff of the neck next season but this one I would not have found given six picks….seven, yes!

THIRSK 4-20

* – HAZELRIGG….+8
§* – WE’LL DEAL AGAIN….+8
* – HEAD SPACE….+6
* – FITZ FLYER….+6
* – SOLAR SPIRIT….+6
§* – PENNY GARCIA….+4
* – THATCHERITE….-9
* – FEEL THE HEAT….-10
T§* – CRUISE TOTHELIMIT….-15
BOP IT….-17
BOSHAM….-18
§ – TEETOTAL….-20

MY PLAY – Top two with PENNY GARCIA for everything. I’ll set up my dutch, have a 20/80 WE’LL DEAL AGAIN and go after those exotics.

RESULT – We had completely lost the ground here. I simply binned my figures. I was watching as they kicked up the divots and thought it best to just give up the ghost.

THIRSK 5-25

* – VALENTINO OYSTER….-9 – NR
* – ARIZONA….-15 – NR
* – PINTRADA….-16 – WON 10/1
LEXINGTON BAY….-21
* – GALACTIC HEROINE….-26
NEXT STOP….-28
CHEVALGRIS….-31
T – KNIFE POINT….-40

MY PLAY – I will not be punting this race. It is impossible to know how good KNIFE POINT is after just two runs and with it’s trainer in blinding form right now, I’ll pretend i’ve not seen this race and move on.

RESULT – Natural progression located those applying it a nice 10/1 “top rated” winner but I was not amongst them.

ASSUMPTIONS:

York / Sun 07 Sep
Updated @ Sat 06 Sep

Going/Track

Good to Firm (GoingStick: 7.1 overall average; in home straight: farside – 6.9; centre – 6.8 standside – 6.8. on Saturday at 08:30)

Rails: Rail in innermost position, providing fresh ground from 9f to the entrance to the home straight, and reducing race distances for races 1m and above by 24yds

Stalls: 5f89yds & 6f – Far Side; 1m4f – Centre; Remainder – Inside Rail

Weather

Dry since Monday up to 7am Saturday. 4mm rainfall Saturday. Met Office Forecast: Dry Saturday night. Sunday – Dry, blue skies and sunny, 18 degrees.

* – indicates winner on ground at the time of rating the race
§ – perceived as best drawn
T – indicates having travelled more than 150 miles to race today
YORK 2-30

T§ – TOWER POWER….+9
* – COSMIC HALO….+9
§* – MARINERS MOON….+9
§* – EENY MAC….+4
§* – UNEX MICHAELANGELO….-1
SHERIFF OF NAWTON….-3
* – RIBBLEHEAD….-10
* – MAYBEME….T* – CHAPTER AND VERSE….-14
* – ARTFUL PRINCE….-14
* – LORD FRANKLIN….-17
* – DUKE OF YORKSHIRE….-20
DOLPHIN ROCK….-21
JALINGO….-27
§ – MILLKWOOD….-30

MY PLAY – I have three in my top six drawn where i want them and good to go on the going as currently forecast. We have a few in here that will be looking to take them along, my top rated being one of them and they could well set it up for something that can finish.

I was going to suggest JALINGO a potential lay but this horse did us a real turn 10 days ago on his first run on turf….1-1 so, unbeaten! The ground that day was good to soft and if the going description were to change in that direction then as with that bottom rated horse of a few days ago, Green Howard, this one is no lay. The biggest negative the horse has is his trainer. For whatever reason Mark Johnston cannot buy winners at York but this gives me an uneasy feel so I’ll duck it.

THREE TO DUTCH – MARINERS MOON, EENY MAC, UNEX MICHAELANGELO
20/80 – MARINERS MOON
EXOTICS – MARINERS MOON, EENY MAC, UNEX MICHAELANGELO
LAY – NONE

The very best of luck if you get involved today,

Kindest regards

Ron

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