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York 1-55 20/08/14

A race that has been Rated but with races for profiling thin on the ground today I thought I would take a look at this from a historical standpoint, in addition to the “here and now” view that Ratings provide. Like I always say, if the two meet, we can assume we have a bet!

We only have five previous runnings of this race but a pattern is already emerging. We can start by working with the stat that suggests older horses (5+) are the ones we need to concentrate on. They have taken four of those five races to date.

When rating the race I spotted a draw bias favouring low but historically it’s a double figure draw that has proven best….4 from 5, the other being low.

My first shortlist comprises those in the correct age group:

MASS RALLY
ASHPAN SAM
MOVE IN TIME
YORK GLORY
RACY
MAGICAL MACEY
JUDGE ‘N JURY
B FIFTY TWO
BOGART
SECRET WITNESS

The winner has been located in the first four on the tissue on three of the last four runnings of this race and with the favourite in the first four on three of the five occasions this has been run, it’s pretty safe at this point in history to think the market gets it about right.

From that list above, based on market position, we have a short list of:

MASS RALLY
MOVE IN TIME

What I have also found is that only one previous winner had either won or placed on it’s last start before coming here and whilst both finished in the first four last time out, MASS RALLY finished fourth and so, if you really wanted to stretch a point and class anything outside the first three as being “unplaced”, then the Dodd horse fits the bill as he’s also bagged a double figure draw whilst the O’Meara trained runner finished second last time and competes from a single figure draw.

What also has an eyebrow raised this end is the stats relating to Dodd’s runners in this race to date….four runners, one winner and one placed.

POST RACING PROFILE HORSE – MASS RALLY

If you are trusting profiling over ratings then a dutch with the other bits and pieces might be well worth considering.

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