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Today’s Ratings and Advice 21/08/14

Please….please don’t ask for figures for those flat marathons again! You will ruin my reputation!

Brian Ellison, as was pointed out, threw five into the mix and won it with his outsider. They are simply impossible to rate accurately because we are guessing which will last home. I’d much rather save the stake money used to play a race I have a definite opinion on, even if I get that one wrong.

A nice brace of winners in the OF INTEREST section, the profiling was pretty darned good (I will be sending out a second Newsletter containing profiled races later this morning), but the most frustrating thing yesterday was watching Sam James make a decision to wait for a gap on Master Bond, whilst Fergal Lynch took the bull by the horns, made a gap by giving Busy bimbo a nudge left and won the race. Sam eventually had to come around his field and finished second.

No complaints from me though. I had been listening to Ruby Walsh talking tactics earlier on RUK and he was spot on. He was telling listeners that decision making was a vital part of a jockeys ability. He would much rather make a decision in a race and if he lost, it didn’t matter.

That is spot on. Not making a decision and losing would be poor jockeyship. Sam yesterday made a decision to wait, which I believe cost him the race but, he made a decision.

I have profited from this kind of thing in the past, will do again. Yesterday I lost and will do again. That’s what happens when we bet on horses.

ASSUMPTIONS:

Bath / Thu 21 Aug
Updated @ Wed 20 Aug
Going/Track
Firm, Good to Firm in places (GoingStick: 10.1 on Tuesday at 07:30)
Stalls: 5f & 5.5f – Centre 1m, 1m2f & 1m3f – Inside 1m 5f – Outside

Weather
71mm in last 7 days. 3mm rain last 24hrs Forecast: Weds/Thurs; Possible isolated showers but dry in the main
York / Thu 21 Aug
Updated @ Thu 21 Aug
Going/Track
Good to Firm, Good in Places (GoingStick: tba on Thursday at 08:30)
Rails: Plans for rail alignment: Thursday – racing on traditional line around home bend – no adjustment to race distances. Friday & Saturday – rail moved out 3m around home bend and back straight adding 7 yards to official race distances of races of one mile and over.
Stalls: Stalls positions: 5f, 5f89yds and 6f – standside; 1m4f – centre; remainder – inside rail.

Weather
Recent rainfall; 1mm Friday night; 1mm Saturday night; 1.8mm Monday night; 0.2mm Tuesday night. Dry Wednesday and to 5am Thursday. Met office forecast: Thursday – light rain from 5am clearing by 10am giving way to cloudy but largely dry day, 15 degrees. Thursday night: chance of overnight shower. Friday: largely dry, bright day with sunny spells and chance of a shower later afternoon and evening. Saturday: mixture of sunshine, bright spells and the chance of an afternoon shower.
* – indicates winner on ground at the time of rating the race
§ – perceived as best drawn
T – indicates having travelled more than 150 miles to race today
YORK 4-05

* – BRONZE ANGEL….+19
T – RUSSIAN REALM….+10
§* – BALDUCCI….+9
T§* – MY FREEDOM….+8
T* – SHORT SQUEEZE….+8
T§* – NAVAJO CHIEF….+8
T§* – RED AVENGER….+8
* – KOSIKA….+2
§* – PRINCE OF JOHANNE….+1
* – LAFFAN….-3
§* – GABRIAL’S KAKA….-6
* – TWO FOR TWO….-10
PARBOLD….-10
* – TOP NOTCH TONTO….-11
* – FORT BASTION….-18
T§ – BOOM AND BUST….-20
T – ENERGIZER….-22
T – PASSING STAR….-26
LEVITATE….-30
T – SANTEFISIO….-37

MY PLAY – If I am reading things correctly I have three in my top six I wish to work with. BALDUCCI, MY FREEDOM and NAVAJO CHIEF. The last named only seems to come alive here and they’ve got Fallon up again. I’m thinking his flame is currently a flicker after an early season burst of adrenalin and he’s nothing like the jockey he was, despite getting the gig at Godolphin. Hopefully though he’s on blob here and I get a run for my money.
My top rated is drawn what I’d consider “second best” and this is another horse a law unto itself. More than capable though, if up for it.

THREE TO DUTCH – BALDUCCI, MY FREEDOM, NAVAJO CHIEF
20/80 – BALDUCCI
EXOTICS – BALDUCCI, MY FREEDOM, NAVAJO CHIEF
LAY – NONE

YORK 4-55

T§ – SPARKLE FACTOR….+18
* – DUTCH ROSE….+10
§* – ROYAL RASCAL….+9
T* – MEETING WATERS….+9
§* – DUTCH COURAGE….+8
TICKING KATE….+8
T* – ENRAPTURED….+8
T – BRAGGING….+8
§* – JAMESBO’S GIRL….+8
§* – DUSKY QUEEN….+8
* – AZAGAL….+/-0
T§* – NAKUTI….-4
T* – THE GOLD CHEONGSAM….-4
T§* – WEDDING RING….-7
* – LITTLE SHAMBLES….-8
* – ASKAUD….-9
* – LADY FRANCES….-10
T – ARTISTIC CHARM….-17
T – BELLETRISTE….-24
MISPLACED FORTUNE….-30

MY PLAY – If my figures are right and my top rated handles the ground then this is going to Ireland. It’s not a great race but we have a few open to improvement, no mores than Bragging. I will work with the three highest rated bearing the * icon.

THREE TO DUTCH – DUTCH ROSE, ROYAL RASCAL, MEETING WATERS
20/80 – DUTCH ROSE
EXOTICS – DUTCH ROSE, ROYAL RASCAL, MEETING WATERS
LAY – NONE

BATH 2-55

T* – ARCH WALKER….+9
* – BURNT CREAM….+3
* – SPIC ‘N SPAN….-8
* – MY METEOR….-12
STUDFARMER….-23
HAADEETH….-31

MY PLAY – This meeting is seriously poor kit today. If you do opt to play here please keep staking to your absolute minimum. We are dealing with horses that run two races alike as often as the weather forecast in Hades advises snow.
Top pair to buttons….dutch, 20/80 my top one and an exotic.

BATH 3-30

* – MOLLY JONES….+19
DANGEROUS AGE….+9
* – SHAMAHAN….+/-0
* – DREAMS OF GLORY….-7
* – SILVERRICA….-18
TOP COP….-24
GENERALYSE….-25
DARK LANE….-31

MY PLAY – My top rated should be here having won it’s last four but that’s racing. Clear on my figures she’ll hopefully be competitive but the handicapper dos catch up with such horses eventually – hopefully not today. I’m setting up a two horse dutch rated horses 1 & 3, going 20/80 my top one and we’ll see if those exotics are worth a cursory glance.

BATH 4-05

* – BOLD CROSS….+15
STANLOW….+9
ACTONETAKETWO….+6
T* – FIRST GLANCE….-6
T§ – HOPE FOR GLORY….-13
§ – SURPRISE US….-15
ORACLE BOY….-18
MEDAL OF VALOUR….-19
MY NEW ANGEL….-22
ROYAL MIZAR….-25
BANREENAHREENKAH….-26
KRISTAL HART….-27
§ – WANNABE MAGIC….-29
T§ – URBAN SANCTUARY….-31
§ – EARL’S BRIDGE….-33

MY PLAY – Two in my top four bearing the * icon so they are in….along with HOPE FOR GLORY. It’s a dutch, a 20/80 old Bold Cross and exotics but shekels as opposed to £’s.

BATH 4-40

* – SWEEPING ROCK….+8
* – HAPPY FAMILIES….+6
GLENS WOBBLY….-6
SHADES OF GREY….-7
GREYSWOOD….-15
ROWLESTONE LASS….-18
SIGNIFICANT MOVE….-22

MY PLAY – I’ll just faff about with my top two. As I say, it’s a meeting for seriously low staking and fun betting only.

The very best of luck if you get involved today,

Kindest regards

Ron

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