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Today’s Ratings and Advice 20/08/14

Very pleased with my work yesterday and surprisingly Brighton proved profitable! Yarmouth not so good but I never expect too much from those tracks to be honest. A nice return from the Leicester 7-30 and whilst top rated Gabrial The Thug couldn’t quite hang on it was pleasing that the winner and runner up were in that top three and a small profit collected. The winner, Shades Of Silver, was the only horse in the race carrying the * icon.

RACE PROFILING

Today is the start of the Ebor meeting and what I intend doing once this tome has left the building is profiling a couple of races for you. I’ll do this each day for what should be a cracking good few days of racing. They will be sent out in a Newsletter and also posted on the website.

The Newsletter should be with you no later than 11-00am.

THE CLATTERBRIDGE SENSORY GARDEN

We meet again on September 4th at Clatterbridge to get everything organised and I’m very happy with how things are panning out right now.

The finance department at Clatterbridge has agreed to set up a JustGiving page and what I intend doing is having fliers/posters printed up and we’ll get the communities that are Wirral and Merseyside doing funky stuff to raise the rest of the funding, that will be required to complete this project.

It can be anything from coffee mornings to sky diving and with the local radio stations now also very much onside, I have absolutely no doubts we’ll get this done sooner rather than later.

Again a huge thank you to everyone that has donated thus far.

YORK 1-55

* – YORK GLORY….+9
§* – ROBOT BOY….+9
§* – SECRET WITNESS….+8
§* – MONSIEUR JOE….+8
* – MOVE IN TIME….+8
T§* – ASHPAN SAM….+6
T* – GOLDREAM….+6
§ – LINE OF REASON….+5
* – SEE THE SUN….+5
T§* – B FIFTY TWO….+1
T* – JUDGE ‘N JURY….+1
§* – MAGICAL MACEY….-1
T* – CASPIAN PRINCE….-3
* – MASS RALLY….-4
* – BLAINE….-4
T* – FREE ZONE….-9
BOGART….-9
* – PETERKIN….-10
* – KIMBERELLA….-11
RACY….-12

MY PLAY – I love my top rated horse to bits but to say he’s a law unto himself is a bit like saying Hillary was a mountain climber. He has a stack of ability but rarely chooses to use it. Fact is, if he wins this pulling double I’ll not be in the least bit surprised but, equally, if he drops the lot and comes home last, no surprises there, either.
I’m working with rated horses 2, 3 and 4. Draw (if I have read this right), spot on, ground not an issue and all good to go.
Ashpan Sam keeps winking at me and the booking of Ryan Moore isn’t a bad one, is it!

It’s a great race to kick the meeting off….let’s hope it’s also a profitable one.

THREE TO DUTCH – ROBOT BOY, SECRET WITNESS, MONSIUER JOE
20/80 – ROBOT BOY
EXOTICS – ROBOT BOY, SECRET WITNESS, MONSIEUR JOE
LAY – NONE

MUSSELBURGH 2-45

T* – CAMEROONEY….+7
T* – PATRONA CIANA….+3
T – SHAMAHEART….-2
ORDER OF SERVICE….-8
T* – GAMBINO….-18
PRESSURE POINT….-20
NELSON’S BAY….-20

MY PLAY – I’ll just be working with my top two here. Dutch, 20/80 CAMEROONEY and exotics. I’ll be keeping the stakes low though!

MUSSELBURGH 3-20

T§* – MASTER BOND….+15
T* – SPACE ARTIST….+11
* – ROTHESAY CHANCER….+10
T§* – NOODLES BLUE BOY….+9
T* – TOM SAWYER….+9
T§* – PERFECT BLOSSOM….+9
T§* – IMPERIAL LEGEND….+8
T* – SINGEUR….+8
* – BUNCE….+4
T* – MUTAFAAKIR….-6
* – MIDNIGHT DYNAMO….-8

MY PLAY – On paper every bit as good as that opener at York. I am really looking forward to this one. I have a good feeling about my top rated and this horse is just one piece of criteria away from being a bet of the day.
I think it is the first race I have rated this season where all are previous winners on the going as currently described and it’s going to come down to my having read the draw bias correctly based on how I see this being run. I am just….just, favouring middle. High look second best with low needing a snooker.
Three in my top six marked §* and it would be rude not to work with them.

THREE TO DUTCH – MASTER BOND, NOODLES BLUE BOY, PERFECT BLOSSOM
20/80 – MASTER BOND
EXOTICS – MASTER BOND, NOODLES BLUE BOY, PERFECT BLOSSOM
LAY – NONE

MUSSELBURGH 4-30

§* – HERE NOW AND WHY….+9
* – CHLOE’S DREAM….-8
T – THE NIFTY FOX….-12
SAXONETTE….-15
T – BUSY BIMBO….-23
T§ – DANFAZI….-29
T – MANATEE BAY….-30
§ – SPRING BIRD….-31
§ – BLACK DOUGLAS….-31
FUNDING DEFICIT….-36
FIFE JO….-40

MY PLAY – This is one of those races….run it again tomorrow under exactly the same conditions and you would get a different result. I’ll work with HERE NOW AND WHY, CHLOE’S DREAM and DANFAZI.
If I had a “confidence in my selections” meter the needle would be in the lower end of the scale but, I’ve worked on it, i have some figures and I’ll play to buttons.
Manatee Bay was unlucky last time out but with just one win from 14 starts he’s his own worst enemy, often half asleep when the lids open. If by some miracle he gets off with the others then he’s got a decent chance but then again, it could well be he enjoys playing catch up and might spit his dummy out if not allowed to race that way.
Not a race for getting heavily involved in.

THREE TO DUTCH – HERE NOW AND WHY, CHLOE’S DREAM, DANFAZI
20/80 – HERE NOW AND WHY
EXOTICS – HERE NOW AND WHY, CHLOE’S DREAM, DANFAZI
LAY – SPRING BIRD

PROFILING

YORK 1-55

A race that has been Rated but with races for profiling thin on the ground today I thought I would take a look at this from a historical standpoint, in addition the the “here and now” view that Ratings provide. Like I always say, if the two meet, we can assume we have a bet!

We only have five previous runnings of this race but a pattern is already emerging. We can start by working with the stat that suggests older horses (5+) are the ones we need to concentrate on. They have taken four of those five races to date.

When rating the race I spotted a draw bias favouring low but historically it’s a double figure draw that has proven best….4 from 5, the other being low.

My first shortlist comprises those in the correct age group:

MASS RALLY
ASHPAN SAM
MOVE IN TIME
YORK GLORY
RACY
MAGICAL MACEY
JUDGE ‘N JURY
B FIFTY TWO
BOGART
SECRET WITNESS

The winner has been located in the first four on the tissue on three of the last four runnings of this race and with the favourite in the first four on three of the five occasions this has been run, it’s pretty safe at this point in history to think the market gets it about right.

From that list above, based on market position, we have a short list of:

MASS RALLY
MOVE IN TIME

What I have also found is that only one previous winner had either won or placed on it’s last start before coming here and whilst both finished in the first four last time out, MASS RALLY finished fourth and so, if you really wanted to stretch a point and class anything outside the first three as being “unplaced”, then the Dodd horse fits the bill as he’s also bagged a double figure draw whilst the O’Meara trained runner finished second last time and competes from a single figure draw.

What also has an eyebrow raised this end is the stats relating to Dodd’s runners in this race to date….four runners, one winner and one placed.

POST RACING PROFILE HORSE – MASS RALLY

If you are trusting profiling over ratings then a dutch with the other bits and pieces might be well worth considering.

YORK 4-55

The conundrum that is a juvenile race! Royal Ascot is a breeze compared to York and when you take into account the winners of four of the last five of these has gone in at 12/1, 33/1, 25/1 and 12/1, you get an idea as to what we are up against.

We can but try!

Ok, let’s look at it from a draw angle. as with that first profiled race we find that seven of the last 10 winners were drawn nine or higher.

I’ll take my first shortlist from those still running (four non-runners already), so drawn:

MATTMU
KIBAAR
MIDTERM BREAK
GEORDIE GEORGE
THECORNISHASSASSIN
ROOSEY
BURTONWOOD
FELIX LEITER
DARK PROFIT
MAJESTIC HERO

Seven of the last 10 winners were in the weight range 8st 7lb to 9st alb and I can prune this a tad:

KIBAAR
MIDTERM BREAK
GEORDIE GEORGE
THECORNISHASSASSIN
ROOSEY
BURTONWOOD
FELIX LEITER
DARK PROFIT

Market position next….only one of the last six winners were inside the first six on the tissue so, let’s hope I can find us a nice big priced one!

MIDTERM BREAK
GEORDIE GEORGE
THECORNISHASSASSIN
BURTONWOOD

Two of the last five winners were making their handicap debuts and one had seen a racecourse on just four previous occasions so I’m going to rule out anything more exposed than that:

GEORDIE GEORGE
THECORNISHASSASSIN

We have a brace to work with and the most sensible option (apart from completely ignoring this race), is to dutch them and cross everything.

It could be the Burke runner is different gravy to these but we’ll only know come 5-00pm.

YORK 4-20 RATINGS

* – TOTALIZE….+3
* – BANTAM….-7
* – QUEST FOR MORE….-7
* – ITLAAQ….-13
* – NUMBER ONE LONDON….-13
* – EAGLE ROCK….-19
* – STATUTORY….-19
* – BIG THUNDER….-22
* – KNIGHTLY ESCAPADE….-25
SPACIOUS SKY….-29
* – DOLPHIN VILLAGE….-32
* – LADY KASHAAN….-32
SAPTAPADI….-37
GAMBOL….-40
STREETS OF NEWYORK….-40
SIR FRASNK MORGAN….-40
EDGE OF SANITY….-40

I personally will not be betting this race as so many of these are unproven/unexposed at the trip. brian ellison has thrown five into the mix, we have a Tony Martin runner rated -29 and it’s just not a race i can honestly suggest we play but….good luck to those that opt to walk this minefield without a map!

The very best of luck if you get involved today,

Kindest regards

Ron

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