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Today’s Ratings and Advice 02/08/14

I felt the Ratings performed superbly yesterday and hopefully it’s a sign of things to come for the rest of the month.

It is an extremely busy day of racing with 17 rated races to work with. Before I crack on though I want to let you know some serious discussions about how we move forward have been taking place at this end with myself, Karen, Sean, Adam, Tony and a few others all offering up ideas. I knew this would be a very busy week and so it has proved and it has meant a few things needed doing. With plenty of racing to also work on it has been nigh on impossible to do anything but that which I have done so, apologies for those looking for the return of the Podcast…it’s coming!….and profiled races for this weekend. If I get a couple of hours this morning I will have something on the website by noon.

Members are, I hope, going to be very pleasantly surprised by what’s going to happen from here on in.

Below my figures for 17 races and I’ll be sending out a second Newsletter later this morning with my own ramblings etc.

Please keep an eye on going changes as rain is forecast almost everywhere and it could upset things.

ASSUMPTIONS:

Doncaster / Sat 02 Aug
Updated @ Thu 31 Jul 7:59 am
Going/Track
Good to Firm, (Watering) (GoingStick: 9.2 on Thursday at 07:45)
Rails: The round course is railed out from 1m2f until the round meets the straight This adds about 10 yards to races 1m2f and over.
Stalls: Straight course Stands side Round course inside
Watering: Monday 10mm of water applied to the straight course Tuesday 10mm of water applied to the round course Wednesday 8mm of water applied to the straight course Thursday 6mm to 8mm being applied to the round course Watering to maintain good to firm

Goodwood / Sat 02 Aug
Updated @ Thu 31 Jul 9:38 am
Going/Track
Good to Firm (GoingStick: 8.0 on Thursday at 09:30)
Stalls: Straight course Stand side Round course inside,1m 4f outside
Watering: Watering as necessary

Hamilton Park / Sat 02 Aug
Updated @ Thu 31 Jul 1:27 pm
Going/Track
Good to Firm, Good in places (Selectively watered) (GoingStick: 7.7 on Wednesday at 07:30)
Rails: All official distances apply to this meeting. Farside rail on straight course dolled out to save ground reducing the safety factor on the straight course starts by 2.
Stalls: 2yrs 6F, 5F, 1M 3F – Standside Rest of 6F – Centre 1 Mile – Inside
Watering: 9mm irrigation on the loop yesterday. Any further watering on hold.

Newmarket / Sat 02 Aug
Updated @ Thu 31 Jul 7:56 am
Going/Track
Good to Firm (Good in places) (GoingStick: 7.4 on Thursday at 07:30)
Stalls: Stand Side Course 10f & 12f Centre Remainder Stand Side

Thirsk / Sat 02 Aug
Updated @ Thu 31 Jul 4:36 pm
Going/Track
Good to Firm (GoingStick: 9.1 on Thursday at 16:30)
Rails: Both bends dolled-out for fresh ground adding circa 8 yards to the standard distances for the 7f and 8f races, and circa 12 yards to the standard distances for 1m4f and 2m races.
Stalls: Straight Course & 1m4f: Stands’ Side Round Course & 2m: Inside

Lingfield Park / Sat 02 Aug
Updated @ Thu 31 Jul 8:40 am
Going/Track
Turf straight course: Good to Firm (watering) AWT: Standard (GoingStick: 9.0 on Thursday at 07:45)
Stalls: Turf: Centre AWT: 5f – Outside, Remainder – Inside
Watering: Thursday – 3mm water being applied
* – indicates winner on ground at the time of rating the race
§ – perceived as best drawn
T – indicates having travelled more than 150 miles to race today

GOODWOOD 2-05

§* – SLIP SLIDING AWAY….+11
DAYLIGHT….+11
* – EXTRASOLAR….+10
SECUNDO….+10
* – HUMIDOR….+9
T§ – STEPPING OUT….+8
T* – EL VIENTO….+8
§* – SCHOOL FEES….+6
§* – LADWEB….+5
* – TIDAL’S BABY….+3
T§* – TATLISU….+2
* – EASTERN DRAGON….+2
T§* – BARNET FAIR….+/-0
* – NOBLE DEED….+/-0
T* – HOPES AND DREAMS….-7
HUNTSMANS CLOSE….-13
* – SHORE STEP….-13
T* – CONFESSIONAL….-14
* – SWISS CROSS….-20
PANDAR….-23
KINGLAMI….-25
§ – MISSION APPROVED….-27
T – RUN WITH PRIDE….-32
§ – SHAOLIN….-33
T§ – EVEN STEVENS….-40
T§ – BABY STRANGE….-40
§ – ENGLISHMAN….-40
REGAL PARADE….-40

MY PLAY – In both races here I am slightly favouring middle over low, high just third best. This is tough to work with as I’m not keen on horses running at these big meetings twice in a few days but we saw recently with Racy it’s not impossible.

I am happy with my figures through and expect to see the winner pretty high up on my figures, certainly having a + figure, even if it’s not my top one.

I’ll work as follows….

THREE TO DUTCH – SLIP SLIDING AWAY, HUMIDOR, STEPPING OUT
20/80 – SLIP SLIDING AWAY, STEPPING OUT
EXOTICS – SLIP SLIDING AWAY, HUMIDOR, STEPPING OUT
LAY – TATLISU

GOODWOOD 3-50

§* – HALLELUJAH….+18
T* – BEAR BEHIND….+14
T§* – BLAINE….+11
REX IMPERATOR….+10
T§* – ALBEN STAR….+10
§* – ZERO MONEY….+9
T§ – BORDERLESCOTT….+9
* – INTRINSIC….+8
* – ASHPAN SAM….+8
* – SEEKING MAGIC….+8
* – MUTHMIR….+8
* – JOEY’S DESTINY….+8
§* – BOOMERANG BOB….+7
* – CLEAR SPRING….+2
HOODNA….-1
* – EXPERT….-3
* – YORK GLORY….-4
T* – BARRACUDA BOY….-5
T§* – FLYMAN….-12
T* – BALLESTEROS….-12
* – DISSCUSSIONTOFOLLOW….-13
§ – NINJAGO….-17
* – ARNOLD LANE….-20
§ – SHROPSHIRE….-23
MAR MAR….-25
FAIRWAY TO HEAVEN….-31
RUWAIYAN….-39
T§ – SIR MAXIMILLAIN….-40

MY PLAY – Four in my top six rated having both icons I look for and I will personally play the three highest rated.

We all know it’s quite possible a couple of “group horses in a handicap” are in here but both Muthmir and Intrinsic are still relatively unexposed and tough to work out properly from a handicapping point of view. I prefer Intrinsic of the two although I’m well aware of what Haggas thinks of his.

THREE TO DUTCH – HALLELUJAH, BLAINE, ALBEN STAR
20/80 – HALLELUJAH, ALBEN STAR
EXOTICS – HALLELUJAH, BLAINE, ALBEN STAR
LAY – NONE

DONCASTER 4-35

* – SAN CASSIANO….+5
* – YENHAAB….-1
T* – BORDER LEGEND….-7
* – SPIRIT OF THE LAW….-8
* – BUTHELEZI….-9
WHISPERING WARRIOR….-12
STORM KING….-13

MY PLAY – It has not been lost on me recently, and as pointed out by a member over the last week, those horses “travelling” are winning plenty of these rated races. I’m going to work with rated horses 1 & 3….now watch Yenhaab scoot in!

THREE TO DUTCH – SAN CASSIANO, BORDER LEGEND
20/80 – SAN CASSIANO
EXOTICS – SAN CASSIANO, BORDER LEGEND
LAY – NONE

DONCASTER 6-10

§* – DIAMOND BLUE….+8
POPPING CANDY….+8
§ – ELITE FREEDOM….+4
* – VERUS DELICIA….+/-0
* – TWEETY PIE….-5
§ – KOALA BEAR….-11
* – GOADBY….-17
* – MADAGASCAR MOLL….-20
§ – GREEK SPIRIT….-21
§ – BETTY BOO….-22
FEVER FEW….-26
TRADITIONELLE….-30
CHELLALLA….-34
T – GO GLAMOROUS….-40
DON’T TELL NAN….-40

MY PLAY – Ground and draw right for my top rated and he’s my main player here. I’ll include rated horses 4 and 5 in my dutch and we’ll see how they fare

THREE TO DUTCH – DIAMOND BLUE, VERUS DELICIA, TWEETY PIE
20/80 – DIAMIND BLUE
EXOTICS – DIAMOND BLUE, VERUS DELICIA, TWEETY PIE
LAY – TRADITIONELLE

THIRSK 3-05

* – NORTHSIDE PRINCE….+12
* – WARLU WAY….+2
* – BAYAN KASIRGA….+1
* – LEADERENE….+/-0
* – SAVE THE BEES….-1
CRAGGANOCK….-8
ROCHAMBEAU….-21
NEXT EDITION….-23
T – EPSOM HILL….-30
CLOUD MONKEY….-30

MY PLAY – My top three to October Rules. Not a race I’m keen on, to be honest so low staking advised however you go.

THIRSK 3-40

§* – ANDERIEGO….+10
* – MUHARRER….+8
* – KIWI BAY….+1
* – FARLOW….-7
§ – OSTEOPATHIC REMEDY….-15
* – FAZZA….-15
* – KINGSCROFT….-16
* – YOURARTISONFIRE….-17
§* – ALTHAROOS….-18
T§ – CONRY….-21
* – BEAUMONTS PARTY….-21
§ – TRAIL BLAZE….-22
* – KIMBALI….-22
RED INCA….-22
§ – DUBAI HILLS….-27
CROWDMANIA….-35
BARTACK….-40
POTENT EMBRACE….-40

MY PLAY – I am liking this a lot if the weather holds over there. I am also happy with my figures and it’s top three for me.

THREE TO DUTCH – ANDERIEGO, MUHARRER, KIWI BAY
20/80 – ANDERIEGO
EXOTICS – ANDERIEGO, MUHARRER, KIWI BAY
LAY – NONE

THIRSK 4-15

* – NATIVE FALLS….+12
§* – REPETITION….+10
§* – ESCAPE TO GLORY….+9
§* – EQUITY RISK….+8
* – OUR BOY JACK….-1
* – EARTH DRUMMER….-2
* – RELIGHT MY FIRE….-3
WILDE INSPIRATION….-16
§ – FIELDGUNNER KIRKUP….-18
FAVOURITE TREAT….-19
MU’AJIZA….-29
NAMEITWHATYOULIKE….-37

MY PLAY – Last week a lay, today a play….rated horses 2, 3 and 4 get dutched, it’s a solo Repetition (no, i won’t do it again), and exotics. Normally I’d be laying WILDE INSPIRATION but a 3-y-o ,with the possibility of chafed ground….we’ll swerve.

THREE TO DUTCH – REPETITION, ESCAPE TO GLORY, EQUITY RISK
20/80 – REPETITION
EXOTICS – REPETITION, ESCAPE TO GLORY, EQUITY RISK
LAY – NONE

THIRSK 5-20

MISSISSIPPI….+14
* – CRUISE TOTHELIMIT….+9
* – SINGUER….+4
§ – HALF A BILLION….+3
* L ILAC LACE….+2
* – HEAD SPACE….+1
§* – WE’LL DEAL AGAIN….-3
§* – THATCHERITE….-3
§ – LASTCHANCELUCAS….-15
§ – BACOTHEQUE….-16
AVON BREEZE….-21
JACK LUEY….-22
ELLA’S DELIGHT….-31
TWO PANCAKES….-33

MY PLAY – Another low staking race for me. again it’s the three just below my top one to a dutch, a 20/80 CRUISE TOTHELIMIT and exotics.

NEWMARKET 4-05

T* – BUREAU….-17
T* – TANSEEB….-18
* – MINDUROWNBUSINESS….-21
* – ALL TALK N NO DO….-29
LADY PIMPERNEL….-30
FARQUHAR….-31
L’ORFEO….-37

MY PLAY – Top pair trained by Mark Johnston…and I’m making them more or less the same horse. I actually prefer Tanseeb but will dutch ’em and have my 20/80 on the second highest rated. extoci, too.

NEWMARKET 5-15

ASTRA HALL….+7
* – GABRIAL THE HERO….+/-0
* – ODIN….-1
TINDARO….-10
* – NULLABOR SKY….-11
* – PASAKA BOY….-20
LADY OF YUE….-24

MY PLAY – Rated horses 2 & 3 did me a good turn last time they met and it’s that pair I will work with….fearful of the “bounce” for both so staking low. If odin pulls out for Chester tomorrow then NULLABOR SKY is in.

NEWMARKET 5-45

§ – DESERT COMMAND….+9
* – DIAMOND LADY….+9
§ – WELSH SUNRISE….+8
* – CHILWORTH ICON….+8
* – LINKS DRIVE LADY….-1
WAHAAB….-8
* – JOE PACKET….-12
§ – ATLANTIS CROSSING….-14
JAZZ….-17
ROCKSILLA….-23
T§ – HIGHLAND ACCLAIM….-25
ROCKET ROB….-29

MY PLAY – I favour ground over draw….just….and will pluck that trio indicated * over those indicated §….I’ll be right, or wrong.

THREE TO DUTCH – DIAMOND LADY, CHILWORTH ICON, LINKS DRIVE LADY
20/80 – DIAMOND LADY
EXOTICS – DIAMOND LADY, CHILWORTH ICON, LINKS DRIVE LADY
LAY – JAZZ

HAMILTON 7-15

T* – INGENTI….+12
§* – CAPTAIN ROYALE….+11
T§* – HAZELRIGG….+11
T* – MEDICI TIME….+8
* – GOTTCHER….+6
T§* – SLIM CHANCE….+1
* – WINDFORPOWER….-2
CLASSY ANNE….-4
BUNCE….-13
§ – PITT RIVERS….-23

MY PLAY – Three in my top six marked §* and whilst I am thinking my top rated will run well I have spotted a slight draw bias, even in this small field. If it rains up there Classy Anne is no lay but if it stays rattling quick then yep, I’ll get after that one.

THREE TO DUTCH – CAPTAIN ROYALE, HAZELRIGG, SLIM CHANCE
20/80 – CAPTAIN ROYALE
EXOTICS – CAPTAIN ROYALE, HAZELRIGG, SLIM CHANCE
LAY – CLASSY ANNE

HAMILTON 7-45

T* – AUGUSTA ADA….+15
T§* – LADY FRANCES….+12
T* – MILLY’S SECRET….+12
§* – ALEXANDRAKOLLONTAI….+11
T* – GRAN CANARIA QUEEN….+8
T* – JAMESBO’S GIRL….+6
* – MIDNIGHT SYNAMO….+4
T§ – ECONOMIC CRISIS….-1
RUBY’S DAY….-15

MY PLAY – I have again spotted up a small draw bias and will work with rated horses 1, 2 and 4.

THREE TO DUTCH – AUGUSTA ADA, LADY FRANCES, ALEXANDRAKOLLONTAI
20/80 – LADY FRANCES
EXOTICS – AUGUSTA ADA, LADY FRANCES, ALEANDRAKOLLONTAI
LAY – NONE

HAMILTON 8-15

* – HANALEI BAY….+10
T* – SURROUND SOUND….+10
T* – OUTLAW TORN….+3
T – AN CHULAINN….-1
* – TECTONIC….-1
T* – TED’S BROTHER….-5
T – EWELL PLACE….-17
SILVER DUKE….-22

MY PLAY – Top three rated will be dutched etc but not to great stakes. I do like my top rated here though and if I’m miles ahead come off time may indulge in a decent 20/80.

THREE TO DUTCH – HANALEI BAY, SURROUND SOUND, OUTLAW TORN
20/80 – HANALEI BAY
EXOTICS – HANALEI BAY, SURROUND SOUND, OUTLAW TORN
LAY – NONE

LINGFIELD 6-30

* – JONTLEMAN…+10
T* – AL’S MEMORY….+8
* – SAKASH….+1
* – POLAR KITE….-8
* – PERFECT MISSION….-17
T – LLYRICAL….-17
* – SHIFTING STAR….-22
WHITE RUSSIAN….-23
EVIDENT….-24
* – ZIGGY’S SECRET….-25

MY PLAY – Three with a plus figure and all good to go on the ground as described when i worked on this so yep, I’ll play this as it has fallen. Again a prospective lay in WHITE RUSSIAN but it’s another 3-y-o and best to leave it.

THREE TO DUTCH – JONTLEMAN, AL’S MEMORY, SAKASH
20/80 – JONTLEMAN
EXOTICS – JONTLEMEN, AL’S MEMORY, SAKASH
LAY – NONE

LINGFIELD 7-00

§* – INDIAN AFFAIR….+9
§* – HIT THE LIGHTS….+8
* – MARIA MONTEZ….+7
* – COMMANDINGPRESENCE….+5
T§* – DARK LANE….+/-0
CAMINEL….-1
ASSERTIVE AGENT….-14
§ – NEW RICH….-20
BAJAN STORY….-26
DIVINE CALL….-33
T – STUDFARMER….-40
ENCAPSULATED….-40

MY PLAY – Rated horses 1, 2 and 5….draw bias here looks significant and I want those boxed nice working for me.

THREE TO DUTCH – INDIAN AFFAIR, HIT THE LIGHTS, DARK LANE
20/80 – INDIAN AFFAIR
EXOTICS – INDIAN AFFAIR, HIT THE LIGHTS, DARK LANE
LAY – NONE

Have a great day and the best of luck!

Kindest regards

Ron

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