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Today’s Ratings and Advice 16/07/14

I guess that proves how vital the exact going description is to me when I am putting everything together?

The internet being down when it was enabled me to check everything again regarding Beverley and i highlighted that 4-30 for you as a race I had new figures for. It made the difference, for me personally, and what would have been a losing race, became a winning one.

Figures in first Newsletter:

BEVERLEY 4-30

§* – ZAITSEV….+12
* – AL MUHEER….+9 – 4TH 8/1
§* – MICK SLATES….+8 – NR
§ – REAL TIGRESS….+8 – 3RD 5/1 > 7/2
KIMBALI….+/-0 – WON 9/1
SMALLJOHN….-3
§ – DENNIS….-6
DESERT CREEK….-9 – NR
WHISPERING TIMES….-14 – 5TH 6/1
§ – WELLIESINTHEWATER….-23 – NR
RELIGHT MY FIRE….-28
MAJESTIC DREAM….-28
MISHAAL….-31
LLEWELLYN….-32

Figures in second Newsletter:

BEVERLEY 4-30 (REVISED)

§* – ZAITSEV….+12
§* – REAL TIGRESS….+10 – 3RD 5/1 > 7/2
* – KIMBALI….+10 – WON 9/1
* – AL MUHEER….+9 – 4TH 8/1
* – WHISPERED TIMES….+8 – 5TH 6/1
§* – MICK SLATES….+8 – NR
MAJESTIC DREAM….-3
SMALLJOHN….-3
§ – DENNIS….-6
DESERT CREEK….-9
§ – WELLIESINTHEWATER….-23
RELIGHT MY FIRE….-28
MISHAAL….-31
LLEWELLYN….-32

MY PLAY – My top one has a heck of a lot going for it. Not far off being a “bet of the day”, the only thing stopping me putting it up being the course form of Real Tigress, who is 2-2 at the track. In the time between the first Newsletter going out and this second one hitting your inbox, the going has changed enough for my work to alter as it dries out. That is one of the issues we face once a Newsletter has gone out.

THREE TO DUTCH – ZAITSEV, REAL TIGRESS, MICK SLATES
20/80 – ZAITSEV
EXOTICS – ZAITSEV, REAL TIGRESS, MICK SLATES
LAY – NONE

RESULT – With MICK SLATES out and the draw bias nothing like as significant because of non-runners I ended up simply dutching my top three, which produced a nice 9/1 winner and very nearly the exotic, too. A profitable race for me personally.

Zaitsev simply went off far to quickly and was empty a furlong from home.

My figures would have looked a little all over the place in that first race, I would not have been on the winner

Finding winners is difficult enough without things changing once a Newsletter has gone out. Here two factors – the most important in my book – had changed….going and draw bias. You see the result for yourself.

If you are in a position to check these things for yourself it is vital you do so. If you are not, the best and sensible option is not to bet. There will be plenty of other days when it’s safe for you to get involved.

Today is very quiet, just two rated races and I’m not keen on either as betting mediums to be honest.

There are several races being run today that should have garlic and a cross placed next to them on the race card. Races in which three year olds are making their handicap debuts should be avoided, especially when trained by certain trainers. The Sandown 8-15 is the perfect example of this. Two with those three runs, thrown in? A Hannon horse having it’s first run since being gelded likely to improve? You throw cash at that one and you are a braver man/woman than I am.

Every race being run there tonight is for watching only….including my rated race.

Catterick….basically a greyhound track and if you are off the pace, you need to be riding a Ferrari to get competitive. Plenty of Skoda’s on show there today, that’s for sure! The last race on that card should be fun to watch!

A day of punting rest for me personally.

ASSUMPTIONS:

CATTERICK BRIDGE – Flat (Updated:15/07/2014 at 14:23:06)
Going
Good to Firm (Watered)
(GoingStick: 9.1 on Tuesday at 14:00)

Stalls
All races – Inside

Weather
Dry overnight
10mm rain Saturday night/Sunday morning.
Forecast: Then dry, sunny spells and warm through to racing.A
band of light rain moving in late Wednesday

Watering
Watered – Applied 12mm Monday/Tuesday

LINGFIELD PARK – Flat (Updated:05/07/2014 at 11:06:58)
Going
Standard

Stalls
1m: Outside, Remainder: Inside

SANDOWN PARK – Flat (Updated:15/07/2014 at 17:00:56)
Going
Good to Firm , Good in places
(GoingStick: 8.5 on Tuesday at 16:45)

Stalls
Sprint Course – Far Side (Full width)

Rails
Round Course rail will be on innermost (Eclipse) configuration
with all distances as advertised.

Weather
2mm in showers Saturday night. 1mm Sunday morning. Dry since and
expected to stay dry and increasingly warm this week.

Other

Middle of the mile straight has been vertidrained

* – indicates winner on ground as currently described above
§ – perceived as best drawn
T – indicates having travelled more than 150 miles to race today

CATTERICK 4-00

T – GO FAR….+12
LADY FRANCES….+4
NAMEITWHATYOULIKE….+2
BOP IT….-3
* – THATCHERITE….-4
SOLAR SPIRIT….-6
* – POWERFUL PRESENCE….-8
* – DARK CASTLE….-10
AVON BREEZE….-19

MY PLAY – I will not be getting involved in this one. Three rated + not having winning form on good to firm and only one horse in my top six having that * – just has a strange feel to it.

SANDOWN 7-40

T* – PURPLE ‘N GOLD….-2
T – ISHIKAWA….-9
* – BIRDMAN….-13
* – GEORGE CINQ….-17
DIRECTORSHIP….-18
MAVERIK….-31
BILLINGSGATE….-33
TIGERS TALE….-35

MY PLAY – Again, it’s one I’ll leave alone. The only 3-y-o in the race, BILLINGSGATE, is one I struggled to get a proper handle on as he has only had four races, just one of those on turf and i’ve no idea how good or otherwise he might be so, prudence applied, i’m just watching.

Have a great day and the best of luck!

Kindest regards

Ron

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