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Today’s Ratings and Advice 02/07/14

We are very light on Rated races at the moment because those 3-y-o’s are being let loose in all aged handicaps and I’m just going to let them do what they do until after Glorious Goodwood. That is the time things start to settle down in that respect and I take a genuine interest in them.

What you will be finding is the OF INTEREST section of your Newsletter is in blistering form. The four selections in that section yesterday came so close to producing a few of you a brilliant afternoon of punting.

BIFOCAL – 2ND 10/1
(Hamilton 4-45) – 20/80
BEREKA – 2ND 5/1
(Brighton 3-00) – 20/80
AURELIA COTTA – WON 11/2
(Bath 6-40) – 20/80
RED LADY – WON 11/2
(Bath 8-10) – 20/80

A shame that first one cut up to just four runners as those playing e.w. Lucky 15’s were unlucky! Bereka had it’s race won everywhere bar the line and got done a neck but as you said on Facebook, Ken, you returned more than three times your stake so a happy enough ending.

The OF INTEREST selections basically come from races I do not, or cannot, handicap. They are legitimate potential winners of their races based on several of the criteria I apply to rated races and we’ve had some lovely winners in there recently.

ASSUMPTIONS:

CATTERICK BRIDGE – Flat (Updated:01/07/2014 at 15:48:43)
Going
Good to Firm, Firm in places (Watered)
(GoingStick: 9.1 on Tuesday at 15:30)

Stalls
All races – Inside

Weather
Dry overnight
Forecast: Dry through to racing and becoming warmer

Watering
Watered – 36mm applied in the last 7 days

CHEPSTOW – Flat (Updated:01/07/2014 at 07:39:00)
Going
Good
Dry since Saturday
18mm of rain on Saturday.
22mm of rain on Friday.
(GoingStick: 6.9 on Monday at 07:00)

Stalls
6f – 1m Centre

Weather
Forecast: Dry with sunny spells Tuesday
and Wednesday, max temp 23C.

Other
The track was vertidrained last week.

* – indicates winner on ground as currently described above
§ – perceived as best drawn
T – indicates having travelled more than 150 miles to race today

CATTERICK 3-30

ROCKABILLY RIOT….-11
MAILLOT JAUNE….-21
* – PATAVIUM….-22
DISTRICT ATTORNEY….-24
DABUKI….-34
TURJUMAN….-36
WEYBRIDGE LIGHT….-40
MONZINO….-40
YORKSHIREMAN….-40

MY PLAY – A shocking race really. If i did get involved it would be top three to “October Rules” and even then I’d need a gun to my head.

CHEPSTOW 6-40

PICC OF BURGAU….+18
§* – VERUS DELICIA….+12
§* – DECISION BY ONE….+9
§* – EUROQUIP BOY….+9
* – SEE THE STORM….+9
§* – DIAMOND VINE….+9
§* – HIT THE LIGHTS….+2
§* – DIVINE CALL….+1
* – NIGHT TRADE….-6
§* – BASLE….-10
FORTROSE ACADEMY….-18
§ – ASSEMBLY….-20
§ – CONSISTANT….-23
§ – NEW RICH….-27
HAMIS AL BIN….-40
LOGANS LAD….-40
COLOURBEARER….-40

MY PLAY – For a Class 6 this is as competitive a race as I’ve seen this season. I’ve spotted a draw bias that suggests low drawn will struggle a bit here and my top rated, who rates very highly, has a few issues to overcome. Draw, ground and trip are all different to those he scored under last time up and I myself has to ruin with the next three on the Ratings for my own bets here.

I’m seeing middle marginally favoured over high….not a lot in it at all hence a few of these attracting the §….and the “best drawn” looks to be DIAMOND VINE. He’s on a heck of a losing run right now though and I’ll stick to my guns.

THREE TO DUTCH – VERUS DECLICIA, DECISION BY ONE, EUROQUIP BOY
20/80 – VERUS DELICIA
EXOTICS – VERUS DECLISIA, DECISION BY ONE, EUROQUIP BOY
LAY – NONE

CHEPSTOW 8-40

* – GLENS WOBBLY….+8
INNOKO….-2
ON STAGE….-9
NINEPOINTSIXTHREE….-9
HOLLYWOOD ALL STAR….-13
ROWLESTONE LASS….-14
THUNDERING HOME….-15
SURPRISE US….-16
CAPTAIN OATS….-20
CROUCHING HARRY….-20

MY PLAY – Top three to October Rules…..as good and competitive race as that is above, this is minging.

CHEPSTOW 9-10

* – BELLE PARK….+17
BONDI MIST….+7
T – GABRIAL THE TERROR….+4
* – ASHKALANA….+/-0
* – APRIL CIEL….-1
ACAPULCO BAY….-12
HALLINGHAM….-22
YOUM JAMIL….-33
GREYEMKAY….-37

MY PLAY – A few will be fancying my third highest rated to follow up his Brighton win and I imagine David Simcock isn’t sending the horse and staff there for the fun of it….round trip of 328 miles, what time are they getting home!

The ground is officially genuine good and that’s a little slower than he won on at Brighton but if it dried to good to firm, he’d warrant serious consideration. I have what I have though and right now it’s the three marked *…and a seriously good play my top one, which is just one spot away from going up as a Bet Of The Day.

The problem I have as I type is that should the ground quicken up it negates the chance of my top one. Her latest win was on soft and I recall Victor Dartnell saying then they were her conditions.

I’ll know more later as I watch the meeting unfold.

THREE TO DUTCH – BELLE PARK, ASHKALANA, APRIL CIEL
20/80 – BELLE PARK
EXOTICS – BELLE PARK, ASHKALANA, APRIL CIEL
LAY – NONE

Have a great day and the very best of luck

Kindest regards

Ron

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