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Today’s Ratings and Advice 15/06/14

That was an horrendously busy day. Had to send the ladies out shopping to Cheshire Oaks because they would never have seen me surface anyway!

As is usual on a Sunday, a Post Mortem of Saturday comes first (I made a mistake in providing figures for that last race at York and it’s evidence of just why I do not, or shouldn’t, provide numbers for any all aged handicaps containing 3-y-o’s)….

BATH 2-35

* – PETERSBODEN….-8 – 4TH
* – DEVOTE MYSELF….-9
T – ELIZABETH COFFEE….-17 – 2ND
OMOTESANDO….-20 – 6TH
MEDBURN CUTLER….-25
T – GABRIAL THE THUG….-34 – 3RD
TO THE SKY….-35
GREYEMKAY….-40
KRISTAL HART….-40
ELUSIVE BAND….-40
T – K LIGHTNING….-40
HERBALIST….-40

MY PLAY – The rated races here are low grade and so staking will be kept to my October rules levels. Here it’s top three played as indicated below.

THREE TO DUTCH – PETERSBODEN, DEVOTE MYSELF, ELIZABETH COFFEE
20/80 – PETERSBODEN
EXOTICS – PETERSBODEN, DEVOTE MYSELF, ELIZABETH COFFEE
LAY – NONE

RESULT – Four of the first six home in my top six rated and just a head away from landing my dutch and a profit. That’s life…move on.

BATH 3-10

* – LUCKY DIVA….-17
SHIRITAKI….-21
T – RAINFORD GLORY….-29
INDIAN SCOUT….-34
ALHABAN….-40
JUST DUCHESS….-40
CAPTAIN OATS….-40
HOLLYWOOD ALL STAR….-40
HENDRY TRIGGER….-40
T – ROY ROCKET….-40

MY PLAY – An awful race. Top three to October Rules or simply walk away.

THREE TO DUTCH – LUCKY DIVA, SHIRITAKI, RAINFORD GLORY
20/80 – LUCKY DIVA
EXOTICS – LUCKY DIVA, SHIRITAKI, RAINFORD GLORY
LAY – NONE

RESULT – I confess…i walked away. Didn’t play it and when an 11 year old wins it’s first race in a gazillion starts, you know just how poor the others are.

BATH 5-30

* – DIAMONDHEAD….+16 – 3RD 4/1
* – DREAMS OF GLORY….+5
SPELLMAKER….-11 – WON 7/1
ANGELITO….-11 – 2ND 5/1
HAMOODY….-22
VALLARTA….-24
NOVERRE TO GO….-31
NEW DECADE….-40

MY PLAY – My top one is simply miles clear and I’ll be working as indicated below.

TWO TO DUTCH – DIAMONDHEAD, DREAMS OF GLORY
20/80 – DIAMONDHEAD
EXOTICS – DIAMONHEAD, DREAMS OF GLORY
LAY – NONE

RESULT – Had to laugh. The odds permitted me to make a profit working with my top three so, why didn’t I? Figures fine, decision making at this end appalling.

CHESTER 3-40

§* – LEXI’S HERO….+9 – 2ND 4/1
§ – SMOKETHATTHUNDERS….+2
* – CRUISE TOTHELIMIT….-3
* – MONUMENTAL MAN….-5
§ – SPRINGINMYSTEP….-16 – WON 7/1
* – LASTCHANCELUCAS….-19
T – PANTHER PATROL….-27
TANGO SKY….-37

MY PLAY – Rated horses 1, 3 and 4 will be working for me here.

THREE TO DUTCH – LEXI’S HERO, CRUISE TOTHELIMIT, MONUMENTAL MAN
20/80 – LEXI’S HERO
EXOTICS – LEXI’S HERO, CRUISE TOTHELIMIT, MONUMENTAL MAN
LAY – NONE

RESULT – I had this bang to rights until just on the line. Win some, lose some.

CHESTER 4-15

T* – MODERNISM….+17
§* – LLANARMON LAD….+10 – NR
T§* – RESURGE….+10 – NR
* – TAHIRA….+9 – 2ND 5/1
§* – MARCRET….+8
§* – CROQUEMBOUCHE….+8
§* – PILGRIMS REST….+2
* – LAS VERGLAS STAR….+1
LIFE AND TIMES….-5
STELLAR EXPRESS….-7
T* – STRICTLY SILVER….-12
T* – RUNNING DEER….-15
T – ENERGIA DAVOS….-24
T – MONTASER….-31

MY PLAY – This is a superb race and one I am very much looking forward to. I cannot play my top rated from that daw but rated horses 2, 3 and 5 are well housed, good to go on the ground and they will be worked here.

THREE TO DUTCH – LLANARMON LAD, RESURGE, MARCRET
20/80 – LLANARMON LAD
EXOTICS – LLANARMON LAD, RESURGE, MARCRET
LAY – NONE

RESULT – This became so messy as a result of those non-runners. Had a been able to rate this again the winner would have had all three icons as that six draw was superb given those in 1 & 4 were withdrawn. I ended up playing the trio under MODERNISM, who still had no chance from that car park draw…second again.

CHESTER 4-50

T* – MISSED CALL….-19 – 2ND 6/4
* – TARO TYWOD….-20
T* – LADY OF YUE….-25
T – VICKY VALENTINE….-31
PANDORICA….-35
T – MAGIC ART….-39
WILHANA….-40

MY PLAY – This isn’t very inspiring and I will just trust to my numbers and hope I’ve cracked it.

TWO TO DUTCH – MISSED CALL, TARO TYWOD
20/80 – MISSED CALL
EXOTICS – MISSED CALL, TARO TYWOD
LAY – NONE

RESULT – My top one would have won this doing a cartwheel but for being stopped dead a furlong out. Another second placed play.

CHESTER 5-55

KOSICA….+8
§* – REAL TIGRESS….+5 – 2ND
LA DANZA….-5
* – TRUE PLEASURE….-15 – NR
* – SILVAS ROMANA….-18 – NR
LULU THE ZULU….-24
§* – CELTIC SIXPENCE….-25 – 3RD
§ – MANDY THE NAG….-27
DUTCH MISTRESS….-37

MY PLAY – REAL TIGRESS will carry my 20/80 here and it’s the three highest rated horses carrying the * that will be dutched to produce my profit.

THREE TO DUTCH – REAL TIGRESS, TRUE PLEASURE, SILVAS ROMANUS
20/80 – REAL TIGRESS
EXOTICS – REAL TIGRESS, TRUE PLEASURE, SILVAS ROMANUS
LAY – NONE

RESULT – I just sat here shaking my head after this one. Played the pair marked §*, went straight win REAL TIGRESS and watched another Michael Appleby horse dot up. He had his horses in amazing form yesterday.

CHESTER 6-25

§* – CAPAILL LIATH….+9
§* – DUBAI DYNAMO….+9 – WON 4/1
POWERFUL PRESENCE….+9
§* – PICENO….+8 – 2ND 8/1
BEST TRIP….+8
* – SWIFT CEDAR….+3 – 4TH 8/1
* – HADAJ….+1
* – DR RED EYE….+1
* – POSTSCRIPT….-1
§* – BROCKLEBANK….-2
* – JOHNNO….-8
* – KING OF EDEN….-9
§* – GATEPOST….-12
* – TALENT SCOUT….-20
§ – GABRIAL’S BOUNTY….-22
TOTO SKYLLACHY….-34

MY PLAY – Three in my top four bearing the icons §* and I would be nuts not to be cracking into them in what is a superb end to the days racing here.

THREE TO DUTCH – CAPAILL LIATH, DUBAI DYNAMO, PICENO
20/80 – CAPAILL LIATH
EXOTICS – CAPAILL LIATH, DUBAI DYNAMO, PICENO
LAY – NONE

RESULT – A winning race….dutch and exotics collected and with three of my top six in the first four home, happy with my figures, too.

LEICESTER 8-15

* – ROSACEOUS….+9
* – MASTER OF SONG….+2
§* – A LITTLE BIT RUSTY….+1 – 6TH 8/1
§ – THE GINGER BERRY….-6
§* – FLYING POWER….-7 – WON 12/1
* – BOLD CROSS….-10
POETIC VERSE….-20
WALL STREET BOSS….-21
HURRY HOME POPPA….-34
EVERVESCENT….-37
CASUAL MOVER….-38
GABRIAL THE TERROR….-38
T§ – SECRET DANCER….-40
§ – OETZI….-40

MY PLAY – ROSACEOUS with rated horses 3 and 5 for a dutch, my 20/80 going to the highest rated horses indicated §* and exotics the same trio.

THREE TO DUTCH – ROSACEOUS, A LITTLE BIT RUSTY, FLYING POWER
20/80 – A LITTLE BIT RUSTY, FLYING POWER
EXOTICS – ROSACEOUS, A LITTLE BIT RUSTY, FLYING POWER
LAY – NONE

RESULT – A nice 12/1 winner. It just seemed to make sense to cover two bases 20/80 here and so it proved.

MUSSELBURGH 2-00

SLIP OF A GIRL….-21
VALANTINO OYSTER….-25
VITTACHI….-28
RONALD GEE….-33
DOWNTOWN BOY….-36
LYSINO….-40 – WON 1/2F
GEANNIE MAC….-40
INNISCASTLE BOY….-40
CADORE….-40

MY PLAY – Not a single one of these has won previously on the going as currently described so, two choices….play top three to October Rules or, leave it to the needy and greedy?

THREE TO DUTCH – SLIP OF A GIRL, VALANTINO OYSTER, VITTACHI
20/80 – SLIP OF A GIRL
EXOTICS – SLIP OF A GIRL, VALANTINO OYSTER, VITTACHI
LAY – NONE

RESULT – It was a horrible race before they ran it and it’s still horrible now. I didn’t touch it myself.

MUSSELBURGH 2-30

* – SILVANUS….+18
* – LEXINGTON PLACE….+13
§* – ROTHESAY CHANCER….+10
§* – RASAMAN….+10
GO NANI GO….+9
* – GO GO GREEN….+8
ROBOT BOY….+8
§* – JACK LUEY….+1
* – BRONZE BEAU….+/-0
RED BARON….-1
TUMBLEWIND….-5
SINGEUR….-15
MIDNIGHT DYNAMO….-15
§ – CHOOSEDAY….-19
§ – PERFECT BLOSSOM….-24
§ – ABOVE STANDARD….-27
JAMAICAN BOLT….-35

MY PLAY – My top two have a poor draw in what is a superb race. GO GO GREEN too is poorly drawn whilst GO NANI GO is not so badly drawn but, has no winning form on today’s ground. I have two in my top six though that scream a punt so, two in my dutch will be ROTHESAY CHANCER and RASAMAN….that one has been winking at me all morning!

When SILVANUS won recently we were all on. I received an e-mail from a member asking me how I’d arrived at that one on the day and explained that SILVANUS had won only once before in a field consisting of more than nine runners and it’s a fact, he likes smaller fields than he has this afternoon. He has a cracking good rating today but both draw and field size negate his chances of winning.

ROTHESAY CHANCER too prefers single number fields but he’s in form, well drawn and goes on today’s ground

My 20/80 has to be the “winker”. Big fields don’t phase him, Graham Lee will have had the voice of the Goldie runners and it’s a sensible play.

I’m going to include LEXINGTON PLACE in my dutch with that pair marked §*.

I’m suggesting ROBOT BOY as a lay despite my expecting him to come good sooner rather than later. He has a draw I consider “2nd best” plus, his winning has been done on slightly quicker ground…if it dried to good, do not lay.

His form on slower than good reads:- 3, 10, 6, and allied to that draw suggests i can get after him here.

THREE TO DUTCH – LEXINGTON PLACE, ROTHESAY CHANCER, RASAMAN
20/80 – RASAMAN
EXOTICS – LEXINGTON PLACE, ROTHESAY CHANCER, RASAMAN
LAY – ROBOT BOY

RESULT- If you are going to get one completely wrong, do it in style. I got the draw hopelessly wrong, the result completely out of sync with my own thoughts and I just called myself a few names and moved on.

MUSSELBURGH 3-35

* – MOVE IN TIME….+13
§* – HAWKEYETHENOO….+10
* – MAGICAL MACEY….+10
§* – BODY AND SOUL….+9 – 4TH 4/1
§* – TANGERINE TREES….+9
* – CONFESSIONAL….+9
* – BALLESTEROS….+6
FIRE EYES….+1
§* – DOC HAY….+/-0
BURNING THREAD….-8
* – RACY….-10
§* – CASPAIN PRINCE….-15
* – MASAMAH….-16 – 2ND 25/1
§ – BORDERLESCOTT….-23
DINKUM DIAMOND….-23 – 3RD 12/1
ADDICTIVE DREAM….-31
DEMORA….-40 – WON 10/1

MY PLAY – Rated horses 2, 4 and 5….if my 5th best wins it’ll be a photo finish! Superb race again and I’m hoping my figures produce me a nice little profit here.

THREE TO DUTCH – HAWKEYETHENOO, BODY AND SOUL, TANGERINE TREES
20/80 – HAWEYETHENOO
EXOTICS – HAWKEYETHNOO, BODY AND SOUL, TANGERINE TREES
LAY – NONE

RESULT – Michael Appleby is very much a trainer on my radar. To produce that horse in that kind of form, is such a competitive race, after a huge absence, was a brilliant piece of training. Stand my figures on their head and they are stunning. But we cannot and, they were not.

SANDOWN 3-30

§* – LUPO D’ORO….+11
DOMINATE….+9 – NR
* – TAGULA NIGHT….+8 – WON 5/1
* – TRIPLE DREAM….+1 – NR
* – AMENABLE….-5 – 2ND 11/1
§ – UBETTERBEGOOD….-11
§ – HOLLEY SHIFTWELL….-11
§* – RED EXPLORER….-15
* – SECRET MISSILE….-16 – NR
§ – WELEASE BWIAN….-21
PUCON….-24
TIDAL’S BABY….-25
MALAYSIAN BOLEH….-30

MY PLAY – My only rated race at this track yesterday was hugely profitable and if my figures are right here, it’ll be even better.

THREE TO DUTCH – LUPO D’ORO, TAGULA NIGHT, TRIPLE DREAM
20/80 – LUPO D’ORO
EXOTICS – LUPO D’ORO, TAGULA NIGHT, TRIPLE DREAM
LAY – NONE

RESULT – Sandown, over the two days, was brilliant for me. A cracking good result on Friday and another here. With those non-runners i just worked with my three highest rated marked with an icon and got my dutch and exotics in. My top rated was one I really fancied to run well and he was very well backed on course but, for whatever reason, he just didn’t fire.

YORK 2-40

* – FURY….+9
§* – SWEET LIGHTNING….+3
* – SPIRIT OF THE LAW….-3 – WON 14/1
T* – WHISPERING WARRIOR….-8
* – MAVEN….-15
§ – TARIKHI….-16
T§* – ROSERROW….-21 – 3RD 10/1
* – BUSATTO….-21
§ – FLOW….-23
* – MABAIT….-23
* – SHAHDAROBA….-29
* – BOOTS AND SPURS….-30
§ – SPA’S DANCER….-40

MY PLAY – I’m rowing in with 1, 2 and 5….usual play. FURY is seriously well handicapped from an official point of view and it’s only a matter of time before he’s winning a race but he’s not got the best draw to run from here and whilst I’ll have in my dutch and exotics, I hope he comes up just short.

THREE TO DUTCH – FURY, SWEET LIGHTNING, SPIRIT OF THE LAW
20/80 – SWEET LIGHTNING
EXOTICS – FURY, SWEET LIGHTNING, SPIRIT OF THE LAW
LAY – NONE

RESULT – Apologies again for having not produced the correct figures in my first Newsletter yesterday but it was worth spotting that as I got my dutch up and so, a profit came from it.

YORK 4-25

* – FAZZA….-2 – 5TH 14/1
§* – INGLEBY SYMPHONY….-11
T§* – PATRIOTIC….-14
* – BARREN BROOK….-14 – 4TH 12/1
* – KINGSCROFT….-15
§* – WAR POET….-16 – NR
* – ANDERIEGO….-17
§ – EURYSTHEUS….-18 – WON 11/1
* – ARTFUL PRINCE….-23 – 2ND 25/1
§* – RUN FAT LASS RUN….-25
T* – TOGA TIGER….-25 – 3RD 16/1
* – CORREGIO….-31 – 6TH 16/1
* – PIVOTMAN….-35
INDIAN TRIFONE….-40
§ – STEELRIVER….-40
COOL MUSIC….-40
§ – SOPHISTICATED HEIR….-40
BISHOP’S CASTLE….-40
DAKOTA CANYON….-40
KING OF THE CELTS….-40

MY PLAY – Three in my top six marked §* but this has a strange odour to it. Nothing has found a + figure and whilst PATRIOTIC has a lot going for it I’m very wary of anything ridden by Joe Fanning here. He just doesn’t ride this track well at all. I’ll reluctantly bang it into my dutch.

THREE TO DUTCH – INGLEBY SYMPHONY, PATRIOTIC, WAR POET
20/80 – INGLEBY SYMPHONY
EXOTICS – INGLEBY SYMPHONY, PATRIOTIC, WAR POET
LAY – NONE

RESULT – I have highlighted the first six home and their SP’s to simply show how impossible that was. Joe Fanning, in big field handicaps at York, will always be something to swerve. He simply cannot ride the place. PATRIOTIC had one behind him as they passed the line and that was only because Fallon put the hand brake on COOL MUSIC. Had a bad feeling about this race before it and still do now!

YORK 5-35

T§ – L’AMI LOUIS….+16
§* – TRADE SECRET….+5
* – BACOTHEQUE….+4
* – MON BRAV….-1 – 3RD 7/1
§* – ELLA’S DELIGHT….-4 – NR
T§* – PIDDIE’S POWER….-5
* – TIME AND PLACE….-5
* – MASTER BOND….-9 – 5TH 10/1
§* – MAYFIELD GIRL….-13
* – DARK CASTLE….-15 – 2ND 12/1
LINE OF REASON….-20
* – TEETOTAL….-25 – 4TH 10/1
T – COMMANCHE….-29 – 6TH 8/1
§ – BE LUCKY….-31
WE’LL DEAL AGAIN….-31
§ – RELIGHT MY FIRE….-32
THREES GRAND….-34
BENAVALLUM….-37
HIGHLAND ACCLAIM….-40 – WON 16/1
FLEXIBLE FLYER….-40

MY PLAY – If we get out of today with a profit I’ll be seriously pleased. It’s seriously competitive racing but big fields give us better chances of working these races and here I’m just going to apply my own rules to my play and cross the lot!

THREE TO DUTCH – TRADE SECRET, ELLA’S DELIGHT, PIDDIE’S POWER
20/80 – TRADE SECRET
EXOTICS – TRADE SECRET, ELLA’S DELIGHT, PIDDIE’S POWER
LAY – NONE

RESULT – I should have left this well alone. The winner was the only three year old in the race and I usually spot them and refuse to work races containing them until late July, early August because they still cannot be rated accurately. I have a “sticky” on my iMac screen for future reference!

The OF INTEREST selections came to our aid though

ST MORITZ – 3RD 15/2 (PROFIT)
(Sandown 2-20) – 20/80
AERTEX
(Sandown 4-05) – 20/80
PILLAR BOX – WON 3/1 (PROFIT)
(Bath 3-45) – 20/80
OGBOURNE DOWNS – WON 4/1 (PROFIT)
(Bath 4-55) – straight win
PETERKIN – WON 3/1 (PROFIT)
(Chester 5-25)
ANDROID
(Leicester 7-45)
KHAWAATER
(Lingfield 7-35) – straight win

ASSUMPTIONS:

DONCASTER – Flat (Updated:15/06/2014 at 07:10:43)
Going
Good,
(GoingStick: 8.0 on Sunday at 07:00)

Stalls
All races inside

Rails
The round course is railed out from 1m2f until the round meets
the straight. Adding about 18 yards to races 1m2f and longer

Weather
Friday Dry Temp high +22.
Saturday Overcast 1.6mm of rainfall
Forecast
Sunday Dry overcast temp high +18

SALISBURY – Flat (Updated:14/06/2014 at 17:16:34)
Going
Good to Firm, Firm in places
(GoingStick: 9.5 on Saturday at 17:00)

Stalls
5F, 6F, 1M – Far side

Weather
A predominately dry and warm forecast up to and including
raceday. Temps: Friday – 25’c, Sat – 21’c and Sun – 21’c.
NO RAIN ON FRIDAY NIGHT.

Watering
5mm water applied to straight course on Thursday.
5mm water applied to loop section on Friday.
Saturday – 8mm water applied to whole course

* – indicates winner on ground as currently described above
§ – perceived as best drawn
T – indicates having travelled more than 150 miles to race today

DONCASTER 4-50

SILVERWARE….+19
SELF EMPLOYED….+13
§ – SIMPLY SHINING….+10
CAPE SAMBA….+9
§* – MAZAAHER….+9
* – NO DOMINIUM….-1
* – KIWI BAY….-7
TATTING….-18
GLORIOUS STAR….-21
§ – GOLDSTREAM….-24
§ – RED PALADIN….-28
§ – IT MUST BE FAITH….-36
§ – MILLKWOOD….-40
THORNTOUN LADY….-40

MY PLAY – Pretty much the same kind of feeling about this one as I had for FAZZA’s race yesterday. GLORIOUS STAR is wholly unexposed and impossible to rate properly, my top four have yet to produce a win between them on the going they have this afternoon, and I’m thinking it’s going to be a 20/80 on the horse that has Barry Hills next to his name as trainer. For my dutch i’m looking at rated horses 3, 5 and 6….exotics same three but I’mm be keeping my stakes minimal.

I should add that, on my figures and current market position, IT MUST BE FAITH could be considered a lay but, if you think I’m going to lay an Appleby horse after yesterday, you must be joking!

THREE TO DUTCH – SIMPLY SHINING, MAZAAHER, NO DOMINIUM
20/80 – MAZAAHER
EXOTICS – SIMPLY SHINING, MAZAAHER, NO DOMINIUM
LAY – NONE

SALISBURY 2-15

* – REBECCA ROMERO….+12
§ – SECRET MISSILE….+11
§* – CRUISE TOTHELIMIT….+9
§* – EXTRASOLAR….-8
* – GINZAN….+8
§ – PAL OF THE CAT….-5
* – WASEEM FARIS….-5
* – ANGEL WAY….-6
AGERZAM….-14

MY PLAY – Four in my top five “sporting icons” (I like that), and it’s a dutch, 20/80 EXTRASOLAR and exotics. I’m leaving out CRUISE TOTHELIMIT as he ran only yesterday and I do not bet such horses.

THREE TO DUTCH – REBECCA ROMERO, EXTRASOLAR, GINZAN
20/80 – EXTRASOLAR
EXOTICS – REBECCA ROMERO, EXTRASOLAR, GINZAN
LAY – AGERZAM

Have a great day and the very best of luck

Kindest regards

Ron

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