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Today’s Ratings and Advice 27/05/14

Yesterday proved to be a lot busier at this end than I thought it would be and I will be responding to those that have e-mailed me regarding the new packages this morning. Another very constructive message arrived and I’ll be looking through it over breakfast and putting together the Newsletter this morning.

GOING RACING!

Great news on the “going racing” front with all three of our 500 Club horses now entered to race this week. That’s what held me up! I now have to organise badges for those looking to attend as well as trying to find us more winners (yesterday was good, wasn’t it….something for everyone!), for us.

YESTERDAY

CARLISLE 2-40

§ – BACOTHEQUE….+9 – WON 17/2
* – ORBIT THE MOON….+9
* – BEAU MISTRAL….+9 – 5TH 16/1
§* – CIRCUITOUS….+9 – 2ND 6/1
* – JUST THE TONIC….+8
§* – GOLD BEAU….+8
§* – DIAMOND BLUE….+8
* – KLYNCH….+8
* – MEDICI TIME….+3
* – SUNRAIDER….+2
§ – LLEWELLYN….-2
* – RED EXPLORER….-10
§* – YPRES….-15
SOUND AMIGO….-23

MY PLAY – My top one keeps winking at me but with no winning form on the ground they currently have there I’m looking away. The three I’ll work with are rated horses 2, 4 and 6….dutch….20/80 CIRCUITOUS as he has those two icons I swear by and I will look into those exotics, too. Middle drawn preferred to low over high.

RESULT – Nice top rated winner for those playing that horse. I had that feeling it would win…hence the winking….but stuck to my own way of working and failed by a smidgeon to land my bets. Spotting that draw bias helped, didn’t it!

CARLISLE 3-15

* – HAKUNA MATATA….+8 – 4TH 7/2
* – SPIN ARTIST….-1
BARTACK….-3 – 3RD 9/2
* – AL MUHEER….-9 – 6TH 8/1
* – KIWI BAY….-11 – 2ND 12/1
* – SHADOWTIME….-12 – 5TH 14/1
* – ARGAKI….-12
* – I’M SUPER TOO….-12
JOHNNO….-16 – WON 5/1
* – RALPHY BOY….-26
SWORD OF THE LORD….-40

MY PLAY – I’m working with my top rated 20/80 and setting up a dutch the three highest rated marked *….exotics same trio.

RESULT – A total blank here despite the accuracy of the figures. Five of the first six home in my top six but not much back off the “80” and a losing race for me.

CARLISLE 4-20

* – MCGONAGLE….+9 – NR
* – BALTIC PRINCE….+9 – NR
BAPAK MUDA….-4
* – MERCERS ROW….-7 – WON 7/1
* – IMPERATOR AUGUSTUS….-7
* – ALLURING STAR….-11
JANAAB….-15
* – RUNNING REEF….-20

MY PLAY – Usual suspects plucked from the three highest perches carrying the *….usual play, too.

RESULT – With my top two pulled out I simply worked with the two highest rated carrying the *…and landed a very nice 7/1 winner. Job done, as they say.

CARLISLE 5-20

* – FERDY….+2 – NR
* – DAKOTA CANYON….-2 – 2ND 10/1
* – TECTONIC….-4
* – MYSTERIAL….-14 – 5TH 11/2
* – VALANTINO OYSTER….-22 – WON 18/1
STAFFHOSS….-26
MASH POTATO….-28
PRINTMAKER….-35
PAT’S LEGACY….-40
GABRIAL’S HOPE….-40
SAMOSET….-40
BUZZ LAW….-40

MY PLAY – Ditto my remarks re. that race directly above.

RESULT – Winner and runner up in my top four rated following the defection of Ferdy the frustrating thing, obviously, being the winner was my fourth “best”

LEICESTER 2-15

* – TRIXIE MALONE….-24 – 2ND 85/40
KOSIKA….-25
* – FANOOS….-29 – WON 9/4
BROUGHTONS CHARM….-37
DUTCH MISTRESS….-40
HANNAHS TURN….-40

MY PLAY – I will just have a straight win bet my top one.

RESULT – A losing race for me personally but the two marked * duly came home first and second. Thought they probably would.

LEICESTER 3-20

POSH BOY….+8
ZAFRANAGAR….-3
* – MINSTREL LAD….-15 – WON 10/1
GRANELL….-21
GRAND LIAISON….-23
THE FIRM….-29
GREY BLUE….-40

MY PLAY – Just a small 20/80 MINSTREL LAD. This isn’t stoking my fires at all.

RESULT – Only a small play but successful enough.

REDCAR 4-15

* – SENNOCKIAN STAR….+8
T – AJMANY….+8
T* – WHISPERING WARRIOR….-4
* – SILVERY MOON….-8
T* – STRICTLY SILVER….-9
T – CASHPOINT….-11
MAVEN….-20
GINGER JACK….-25
T* – SPA’S DANCER….-26
SKY KHAN….-35
STEPPING AHEAD….-40
T – ENNISTOWN….-40

MY PLAY – I have added a little bit of profiling I produced for this race on Facebook a few days ago. Just to add, our Facebook page has doubled the number of ‘likes” in less than a month and is adding to that daily. Not surprised given what’s been put up on there recently!
This is the best race of the day and from a Ratings point of view it’s got to be rated horses 1, 3 and 4 dutched, a 20/80 my top one and exotics but, what does profiling suggest?

PROFILING

This is what was posted:

DRAW – 11 OF THE LAST 17 WINNERS WERE DRAWN 7 OR LOWER

AGE – 9 AGED 4

MARKET POSITION – 11 OF LAST 17 WINNERS PRICED 6/1 OR SHORTER

OR – 14 OF LAST 17 WINNERS HAD OR OF 87 OR HIGHER

What I’ll now add is that none of those last 17 winners was officially rated higher than 98 and my top rated horse is running off 102.

Ajmany ticks three of those boxes but I’m not sure the draw of nine will cause him to many problems. Add into the mix that Luca Cumani has won two of the last four runnings of this and AJMANY by virtue of rating and profiling simply becomes the “go to” horse for a profit here.

On the negative, it’s his first run on good to soft, and you know how important the going is to me.

Given the position in my Ratings and the suggestion he is the profile horse here, I’ll just have a straight win bet Cumani takes his third in five….I’ll look at the potential to dutch with rated horses 3 and 4.

If it went soft I’d most likely just run with my figures.

RESULT – If ever a race provided proof that “they do not run on rails”, this was it. I genuinely believed AJMANY would win this race. I was not alone, the horse went off joint favourite. He was beaten after six furlongs and finished tailed off.

No profiling or handicap ratings system (that I know of), would have found your winner and you simply shrug, then crack on with the next race.

WINDSOR 4-40

* – PRESBURG….+4 – 5TH
TEPMOKEA….-8
* – SHEILA’S BUDDY….-13 – 2ND 8/1
* – STARWATCH….-13 – WON 7/1
NAVE….-18 – 6TH
TINSHU….-22
COULOIR EXTREME….-23
ODIN….-27
SAIGON CITY….-31
NUMBER ONE LONDON….-35
RUZEIZ….-40

MY PLAY – Rated horses 1, 3 and 4 to my usual thing.

RESULT – Accurate figures, good decision making, dutch, 60/1 CSF, 35/1 Exacta….made up for the Zetland, that’s for sure!

WINDSOR 5-10

KINGSTON EUCALYPT….+9
LYRIC BALLAD….-9 – 4TH 8/1
UGNADA GLORY….-9 – 5TH 6/1
SIAN GWALIA….-18
CHORAL FESTIVAL….-22 – 6TH 9/2
LADY OF YUE….-26 – WON 8/1
STORM….-27
LADY LUNCHALOT….-29
KENNY’S GIRL….-32
PERNICA….-40
TRACKS OF MY TEARS….-40

MY PLAY – None of this lot has won on the going as officially described…it’s October Rules or nowt….and with it being Windsor, most likely the latter.

RESULT – I opted for nowt….no point guessing and I would not have been on the winner no matter what. They finished spread all over Windsor in this with three of the 10 runners tailed off….including my top rated.

WINDSOR 5-40

* – LINKS DRIVE LADY….+6 – WON 9/2
* – MIDNIGHT RIDER….+1
O’GORMAN….+/-0
DOMINATE….-7
JUBILEE BRIG….-14
* – VINCENTTI….-19
MARJONG….-27
ENGLISHMAN….-28
T – I’LL BE GOOD….-40
LUPO D’ORO….-40
TRIPLE CHOCOLATE….-40

MY PLAY – Rated horses 1, 2 and 6…dutch, 20/80 my top rated and exotics…no fancy staking though.

RESULT – A very nice way to finish off the afternoon of punting.

TODAY

Just three rated races this afternoon and with another 8mm of rain set to hit Redcar, I’m thinking I’ll wait to see what they are actually racing on before betting myself.

ASSUMPTIONS:

LEICESTER – Flat (Updated:26/05/2014 at 19:09:28)
Going
Soft
(GoingStick: 6.2 on Monday at 06:30)

Stalls
Straight course- Stands side. Round course- Inside.

Weather
5 mm rain on Monday. Forecast- Monday night light rain. Tuesday-
Rain on and off for most of the day.

REDCAR – Flat (Updated:26/05/2014 at 17:57:44)
Going
Good to Soft, Soft in places
(GoingStick: 7.6 on Friday at 01:30)

Stalls
Straight Course – Centre

Weather
Remained dry throughout Monday with cloudy periods developing
during the afternoon, the Forecast for Tuesday is dull with
showers and up to 8mm rainfall during the day.

* – indicates winner on ground as currently described above
§ – perceived as best drawn
T – indicates having travelled more than 150 miles to race today

LEICESTER 2-30

* – TOWBIE….+8
RAMBO WILL….+/-0
* – CARDINAL….-5
PROFILE STAR….-7
* – SOPHIE’S BEAU….-10
WHITECREST….-17
SECRET MILLIONAIRE….-29
HARROGATE FAIR….-40

MY PLAY – TOWBIE carries my own 20/80 but I’ll just dutch with CARDINAL. Exotics might be more interesting given the tissue price of the third horse in here having that * next to it’s name. We’ll see.

REDCAR 3-20

YORKSTERS PRINCE….+6
ST MORITZ….+/-0
* – WYLDFIRE….-1
WOODY BAY….-4
ENGROSSING….-5
AL FURAT….-13
BLING KING….-15
T – KINDLELIGHT STORM….-20
RASSELAS….-24
HUSSAR BALLAD….-40
REX ROMANORUM….-40

MY PLAY – Right now I’m sitting on my hands…metaphorically speaking….but with just one so far a previous winner on the ground they currently have, and with that rain forecast, I’m loathe to say anything. Top three to October Rules with the 20/80 on WYLDFIRE.

REDCAR 4-20

* – OLDJOESAID….+10
§* – JACK LUEY….+9
* – KEEP IT DARK….+9
§ – BISPHAM GREEN….+9
§* – BONDI BEACH BOY….+8
TAX FREE….+5
§* – BRONZE BEAU….+1
* – AVON BREEZE….-3
§ – TOM SAWYER….-16
ELAND ALLY….-18
SLEEPY BLUE OCEAN….-28

MY PLAY – Again I’m waiting but this is the best race of the day and I’m keen to get involved. Middle drawn look best boxed. I do not want high on my play but low are not that far off and I’m happy to work with rated horses 1, 2 and 5….dutch, 20/80 JACK LUEY and exotics but for sure, I’ll need to know what they are racing on before getting down to business.

Have a great day and the very best of luck

Kindest regards

Ron

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