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Today’s Ratings and Advice 18/05/14

I had a lovely day in the Welsh sunshine yesterday but I am absolutely cream crackered this morning. Worth it though and I imagine those that were still there when we left feel much worse than I do!

I had very limited access to internet down there and didn’t really know what was going on…or had gone on, until I got up this morning. This is how the figures performed:

NEWMARKET 1-45

§T* – ILLUSTRIOUS PRINCE….-15
* – FRONT PAGE NEWS….-25 – WON 20/1
EVIDENT….-30
T – STAFFHOSS….-31
T* – ZAITSEV….-35
§ – SHEIKH THE REINS….-40
§ – PRESUMIDO….-40
SHAOLIN….-40
§ – JACK OF DIAMONDS….-40
DUKE OF DESTINY….-40
UNTIL MIDNIGHT….-40
SMOKETHATTHUNDERS….-40

MY PLAY – This is the opening leg of today’s Scoop 6 and it’s very nasty. My top rated has a lot going for it but only usually wins later in the season, his sole win at this time of year coming on debut many moons ago. The Tote were never going to make winning £10M easy!

On an ordinary day I would probably not bet on this one, or, if I did, it would be that trio marked * to October Rules levels of staking.

RESULT – I neglected the winner in our Scoop 6 syndicate entry and was kicking myself for doing so. It should have been in there, especially after I had produced a profile (below) for the syndicate members the night before!

PROFILE:

NEWMARKET 1-45

We have had just seven previous running’s of this and six of the seven winners were four year olds.

That’s a stat to go to war with.

EVIDENT
SHAOLIN
SMOKETHATTHUNDERS
PRESUMIDO
ZAITSEV
FRONT PAGE NEWS
UNTIL MIDNIGHT
STAFFHOSS

They run for that age group.

Stats show us that only one favourite so far has managed to win but, he has been placed in the last six runnings so one to keep “onside”. Right now that is EVIDENT.

The market can, and probably will, change so final selections will be left as late as possible….after last week I’m inclined to mark the box “fav” where it is proven whatever goes off favourite has a genuine favourites chance!

Horses owning an official mark of 74 or higher look favoured, they having taken the last five of these so, from my first shortlist we take:

EVIDENT
SHAOLIN
SMOKETHATTHUNDERS
PRESUMIDO
ZAITSEV
FRONT PAGE NEWS

Six of the seven running’s of this have gone to horses in the weight range 8st 7lb to 9st 6lb, the last four all having carried more than 9st. and all those above qualify with the exception of EVIDENT, who carries 9st 7lb. This horse would have been fine but for those above him prior to final decs being taken out and the weights rising, as he was set to carry 9st 5lb.

From:

SHAOLIN – 2ND 5/1
SMOKETHATTHUNDERS
PRESUMIDO
ZAITSEV
FRONT PAGE NEWS – WON 20/1

Annoying.

NEWBURY 2-40

* – INDIGNANT….+11
* – BRONZE ANGEL….+10
§T* – SIR REGINALD….+8
* – TELLOVOI….-9
§* – CHIL THE KITE….-15 – WON 8/1
§* – BURANO….-16
* – SET THE TREND….-16
T – KENNY POWERS….-26
FORT KNOX….-26
§T – DREAM WALKER….-35
MONSIEUR CHEVALIER….-40
MORACHE MUSIC….-40
MODERN TUTOR….-40
§ – TRADER JACK….-40

MY PLAY – Top three for me…Dutch, 20/80 SIR REGINALD as he has draw/going icons nestling nicely alongside his name, and exotics.

Another Scoop 6 race but this has no history/stats attached and we are very much guessing from that angle.

RESULT – My own play should have been rated horses 3, 5 (the winner) and 6 but I made a serious blooper here and lost money. I will be having a natter with “she who must be obeyed” and advising evening’s only of a Saturday from here on in as I had crawled from my bed at 4-00am yesterday knowing we had to be away for 9-00am and I’m blaming that!! The winner, therefore, should also have been in the Scoop 6 entry, too and I imagine if it had been, many syndicate members would have been hiding behind couches after it, not daring to watch!

THIRSK 3-25

T* – GO GO GREEN….+9
§ – LASTCHANCELUCAS….+9
§* – IMPERIAL LEGEND….+3 – 3RD 9/1
* – OLDJOESAID….+3
T§ – PRINCE REGAL….-5
TAX FREE….-7
§ – TUMBLEWIND….-15 – WON 5/1
* – KEEP IT DARK….-15
* – AMBITIOUS ICARUS….-17
BLUE BULLET….-18
* – BRONZE BEAU….-25
ALASKAN BULLET….-25
HOOFALONG….-28
§ – FIRST IN COMMAND….-29
SIX WIVES….-32

MY PLAY – I’m working with rated horses 1, 3 and 4 – Dutch, 20/80 IMPERIAL LEGEND and exotics. I mentioned in my Scoop 6 prep work last night that my feeling here is that this is the race that blows the Scoop 6 apart…you get this one, you most certainly have a chance. I’m throwing five into the perm from this race and have not a lot of confidence in finding that winner.

MY PLAY – Got my “80” back and the two highlighted were in our Scoop 6 entry….that would/should have been the first three legs nailed…or should it? If I had applied my thinking as suggested to those above, then I would have omitted the winner because of ground conditions alone.

THIRSK 4-00

§ – EUTROPIUS….+15
§* – CELTIC SIXPENCE….+11
§* – JUSTONEFORTHEROAD….+11 – 6TH 14/1
§* – SAVE THE BEES….+10 – 5TH 10/1
§* – LLANARMON LAD….+9 – WON 16/1
* – MYSTERIAL….+9
§ – BLIGHTY….+9
* – ROCKET RONNIE….+9
§* – CAPAILL LIATH….+8 – 2ND 14/1
* – AL MUHEER….+8
LORD AERYN….-8
§ – ESACPE TO GLORY….-16
§ – ODDYSEY….-16
§ – PICENO….-17

MY PLAY – The last leg of the Scoop 6. If anyone is in with a chance of winning this they are going to need the luck of the devil. The draw bias looks to favour those drawn high/middle, low struggling.

If I didn’t have the syndicate entry to mess with my mind it’d be a simple Dutch….rated horses 2, 3 and 4, my 20/80 on CELTIC SIXPENCE and exotics. They have the two icons I want when backing horses. That’s how I’ll play it.

MY PLAY – Again kicking myself. I used four horses here for our entry and dropped LLANARMON LAD, who had both icons required, plus a nice sit in my top six, instead bringing in CAPAILL LIATH, who placed. The decision for that was nothing more than my believing the lower rated horse perhaps had a better chance of placing – you can “think” to much!

THIRSK 4-35

T – APRICOT SKY….+18
§* – BOP IT….+11 – 4TH 12/1
§* – POLSKI MAX….+10
* – MY NAME IS RIO….+9
* – MUTAFAAKIR….+8
ROBOT BOY….+2
* – BABY STRANGE….-1
§ – ARCTIC FEELING….-1
LEWISHAM….-7
BARNSTON ASH….-11
§ – CHOOSEDAY….-14
SPACE ARTIST….-17

MY PLAY – My top rated is unexposed and if he wins, he wins but my dutch will consist of rated hoses 2, 3 and 4….20/80 BOP IT and exotics.

MY PLAY – Absolutely no use at all. The two that occupied the first and second spot on the course had never won on that ground before but, we’ve seen it before and, we’ll see it again.

THIRSK 5-10

§* – HOPES N DREAMS….+12 – 5TH 20/1
* – DOC HAY….+9
§* – KIMBRELLA….+8 – 6TH 13/8F
* – CONFESSIONAL….+2 – 4TH 20/1
COSMIC CHATTER….+2
* – DA’QUONDE….-3 – 3RD 11/1
§ – LOVER MAN….-7
NOBLE STORM….-10 – WON 16/1
ZIGGY LEE….-21
WAFFLE….-25
T§ – PEARL ACCLAIM….-40 – 2ND 11/2

MY PLAY – Top three for everything. They pick themselves for my own way of working.

RESULT – Told you! The first two home had no winning form on the going I used as “Gospel” and you just have to accept it’ll happen. The four right behind them did so, i’m not going to look at that as an excuse for losing money.

DONCASTER 7-30

* – BOONGA ROOGETA….+8
COSSETED….+8 – WON 5/2
* – NO POPPY….-3
MISSED CALL….-9
SEA MEETS SKY….-15
MAGIC ART….-20

MY PLAY – Just a 20/80 my top one….perhaps an exotic with NO POPPY but staking will be minimal.

RESULT – The two horses with winning form on the ground report I used finished 5th and 6th….had it been an ultra drying day over Yorkshire way?

I will be watching the racing back this morning and we’ll see.

DONCASTER 8-05

§* – RUN WITH PRIDE….+11 – NR
T* – RASAMAN….+9
§ – TIME AND PLACE….+8 – 3RD 8/1
§* – COMMANCHE – 2ND 10/1
* – TRADE SECRET….+5
§ – WILLBEME….+/-0 – 5TH 10/1
* – MON BRAV….-3 – 4TH 8/1
* – KLYNCH….-6
§ – DUKE COSIMO….-8 – WON 10/1
* – MEANDMYSHADOW….-9
T§ *- ALEXANDRAKOLLONTAI….-15 – 6TH 33/1
* – TOWBEE….-15
* – SUNRAIDER….-15
ORBIT THE MOON….-21
T* – VINCENTTI….-23
§ – EXPOSE….-24
ENDERBY SPIRIT….-30
BACHOTHEQUE….-34
ELAND ALLY….-40

MY PLAY – I’ll wager they would have loved this one in that Scoop 6 conundrum! My 20/80 is my top rated but, what to use with it for dutching? COMMANCHE, for sure but RASAMAN and TRADE SECRET have poor draws and TIME AND PLACE/WILLBEME have going issues. I’ll go with TIME AND PLACE.

Dutch – rated horses 1, 3 and 4, top one for my solo play and exotics. I’ll be on the drive back from Abersoch when this goes off so I’ll annoy the other residents in the car with the Timeform Radio commentary.

RESULT – Spotting a draw bias is next on my list after going conditions once my figures have been compiled. Here, five of the first six home were drawn where they need to be…the other was a non-runner. A double figure draw in such races run here is vital….ask Connor Beasley who rode the favourite, drawn 2, into 7th place. Unfortunately another, with no previous wins on the ground report I used, took the spoils….i really am going to have to watch all of this today! COMMANCHE ran a cracker for my dutch getting done just half a length….and would have been my revised 20/80 play had I been in a position to make that happen.

THE JURY SYNDICATE

I have several of our members very keen to get this going and I am having a professional prospectus put together for the purposes of promoting it. Those that have contacted me already are “in”.

I would say we have half the 12 shares “sold” but we want no money changing hands until we have all shares sold.

500 Club members will benefit from this venture, too as we will be purchasing a share so that you go racing as owners with three more horses.

If this takes off then we’ll look at other areas of the country to make it happen and we’ll have Craig and Sean busy in their current locations.

If you are interested in getting involved please e-mail me.

THE NEW PACKAGES

Details will be arriving in your inbox on Wednesday. I’m trying to add a few things and once done will send it out.

If there are better packages for punters out there then please let me know…I’ll wrap up and here and join you!

THE NEW LAY SERVICE

I know a lot of you are chomping at the bit to get this going but please be patient. I have purchased a domain name, www.tippedtolose.co.uk and a website dedicated to the laying of horses will be built.

It will explain in graphic detail how to set about making profits as a layer and using my figures each day and other bits of information i have to hand, we’ll do that.

It will be run wholly separate from Post Racing but as with that project, I’ll be looking to use the monies to put smiles on the faces of others.

TODAY

A brace from Ripon and both are little crackers!

ASSUMPTIONS:

RIPON – Flat (Updated:18/05/2014 at 06:07:45)

Going
Good
(GoingStick: 8.1 on Sunday at 06:00)

Stalls
Straight course – Stand side

Rails
Rail on bend from back straight to home straight moved out 6
yds adding about 12 yds to races on the round course

Weather
12mm of rain through Sunday, Monday and Tuesday.
Dry since midnight on Tuesday.
Sunday – Partly cloudy with sunny periods.

* indicates horses having won previously on the going as currently described
§ indicates horses perceived as being best drawn
T INDICATES HORSES THAT HAVE TRAVELLED OVER 150 MILES OR MORE TO RACE

RIPON 4-10

§ – BOLD PREDICTION….+14
* – TRAIL BLAZE….+13
* – OSTEOPATHIC REMEDY….+11
* – CAPPO ROSSO….+10
* – TWO FOR TWO….+10
* – NORSE BLUES….+9
§* – DUBAI DYNAMO….+9
§* – PARTY ROYAL….+/-0
§* – MANCHESTAR….-5
* – YEAGAR….-13
* – JOE EILE….-14
KING OF THE DANES….-17

MY PLAY – Both rated races here today are diamonds. Ideally you need a low draw and you’ve no idea how much I’m wishing rated horses 7, 8 and 9 were in my top six because I would be all over them like a bad rash. My top rated has a perfect draw but, his only turf win in 17 attempts Came on slightly quicker ground….if it goes good to firm I’ll have my top three for all bets but it it remains good then it’s rated horses 2, 3 and 4….I have a decision to make nearer the time.

RIPON 5-10

* – NOODLES BLUE BOY….+13
* – HOLY ANGEL….+11
§* – RYLEE MOOCH….+7
§* – INDIAN TINKER….+2
§ – COME ON DAVE….+1
* – SHILLITO….+1
* – CAPTAIN ROYALE….-1
* – BOXING SHADOWS….-8
§* – THATCHERITE….-15
* – HAAJES….-19
SIR GEOFFREY….-24
ADAM’S ALE….-33

MY PLAY – Top three here. High look best drawn to me, middle second best and low not so good. I’m working with rated horse 1, 3 and 4…Dutch, 20/80 RYLEE MOOCH and exotics.

Have a great day and the very best of luck if you are getting involved.

Kindest regards

Ron

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