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Today’s Ratings and Advice 04/05/14

A quick look back at yesterday’s results/figures. It was tough out there yesterday with plenty of strange results, none more so than the 2000Gns itself. Less than a length separated the first three home and, as Lester once said, “they cannot all be good”….I’m thinking we have no Frankel this time around.

My guess is something will emerge from the less exposed ones to take the mile crown this time around.

When we have two 40/1 winners inside half an hour you know it’s a layers day. Dust yourself off, start again….today we have seven more rated races to work with (strangely nothing at Salisbury!). and we’ll soon know our fate.

GOODWOOD 2-55

* – MAGIC CITY….-11
* – THE CONFESSOR….-12
* – JACK’S REVENGE….-12 – 3RD 6/1
* – NEWSTEAD ABBEY….-16
* – CLOCKMAKER….-24
GEORGE GURU….-27
ABSOLUTELY SO….-27
CZECH IT OUT….-40

MY PLAY – My top three provide a projected profit of 100% and bits so that Dutch has already been placed. I’ll have a 20/80 my top one and exotics, same trio.

RESULT – No good. My top rated lost his unbeaten record at the track…ran like a drain and I lost a couple of bob here.

GOODWOOD 3-30

PAL OF THE CAT….+8
* – JIROFT….-2
* – LONG AWAITED….-6
KYLEAKIN LASS….-11
§ – WASEEM FARIS….-18
§ – FAIR VALUE….-19
§ – TENNESSEE WILDCAT….-21
AJJAADD….-24
§ – ELUSIVITY….-30
PANDAR….-35 – WON 40/1

MY PLAY – My top rated has no winning form on the forecast going and, the worst of the draw….not for me. A low draw is preferred to middle and high is minging. My second and third highest rated are drawn middle and have winning form on this ground so, I’m going to work with them…dutch, 20/80 JIROFT and an exotic. Decision making once you have the figures is every bit as producing the figures themselves and I’ll be right….or wrong.

RESULT – I couldn’t, for the life of me, understand how they made my top rated favourite for this. I cannot also understand how the horse that won this race, won this race. I never will. A day of shocks and surprises, wasn’t it!

NEWMARKET 2-05

* – ROCK CHOIR….+9
§* – STRICTLY SILVER….+9
* – BOLD SNIPER….+9 – 3RD 9/1
§* – NICEOFYOUTOTELLME….+6 – WON 16/1 > 10/1
* – ROSERROW….-1
* – TRUMPET MAJOR….-3
§* – LUNAR DEITY….-7
* – AJMANY….-11
BURANO….-15
* – CIRCUMVENT….-20
§ – FARRAAJ….-22
§ – TWO FOR TWO….-23
* – PROUD CHIEFTAIN….-24
STAND MY GROUND….-29
§ – VEERAYA….-30
§ – BIG BAZ….-31
DIRECTORSHIP….-32
* – SPIFER….–35
HIGHLAND DUKE….-40

MY PLAY – I believe I have the draw bias sorted and two of my top four have plenty going for them so they are in my Dutch…with ROSERROW. Ground right and drawn “second best”. My top one and BOLD SNIPER have, if I’m right, the worst of the draw but could be good enough to beat it.

I’m going to work in my usual fashion though and Dutch STRICTLY SILVER, NICEOFYOUTOTELLME and ROSERROW, go 20/80 STRICTLY SILVER and set up exotics.

RESULT – Figures good, result good but unless you got a dutch set up early you had points stolen by virtue of the winner being a Pricewise selection. The horse to take out of this race is most definitely BOLD SNIPER. He has run a blinder.

THIRSK 3-00

§* – FIELDGUNNER KIRKUP….+12 – 6TH 11/1
* – OUR BOY JACK….+12
* – MUSIC IN THE RAIN….+11 – 4TH 7/4
* – DESERT CREEK….+8 – NR
* – AL MUHEER….+6
§* – CAPAILL LIATH….+1 – 2ND 15/2
* – TRADE SECRET….-5 – 5TH 10/1
§* – KINGSCROFT….-15
* – SHADAROBA….-19
§ – RELIGHT MY FIRE….-20
* – TALENT SCOUT….-20
RUWAIYAN….-26 – WON 14/1
LE DELUGE….-39

MY PLAY – Rated horse 1 & 6 are in my Dutch with MUSIC IN THE RAIN, who has touched for being drawn “second best”. I’ll go 20/80 my top one and faff about with the exotic.

RESULT – Another winner I would not have seen coming using Jodrel Bank. Four of the first six home in my top six that turned up so not a lot wrong with the accuracy of my numbers but I’ve looked again at this winner and still cannot see it.

THIRSK 3-40

* – NORSE BLUES….+11
* – INGLEBY ANGEL….+11 – 2ND 8/1
* – FARLOW….+8
§* – OSTEOPATHIC REMEDY….+8 – 4TH 40/1
§* – ROBERT THE PAINTER….+1
* – TRAIL BLAZE….-1
* – WANNABE KING….-10
§* – ANDERIEGO….-11
OFF ART….-11
* – JOE EILE….-14
§ – BOLD PREDICTION….-18 – 3RD 33/1
§ – FORT BASTION….-19 – WON 9/1
MULTI BENE….-20
EQUITY RISK….-21 – NR
* – CAPO ROSSO….-24 – NR
§ – SHOWBOATING….-26

MY PLAY – Cracking good race. Again I have a brace in my top six carrying §*….they are in my Dutch. NORSE BLUES will join them as he’s got a decent draw to work with. My 20/80 goes to the horse I backed two years ago, OSTEOPATHIC REMEDY, who ran a blinder that day but bumped into FARHH. Exotics same three.

RESULT – I am thinking I sorted the draw bias out right enough with three of the first four home drawn where they needed to be….INGLEBY ANGEL has run a cracker from that box….but I’m gutted the non-runners cost me my “80” off the fourth placed horse. He has run another good race here and will doubtless be back in 2015.

THIRSK 5-20

§* – HAAJES….+9
* – LASTCHANCELUCAS….+8 – WON 10/1
* – TAX FREE….+8 – 2ND 18/1
§* – BEDLOES ISLAND….-1 – NR
* – OLDJOESAID….-2 – 3RD 28/1
§* – HOLY ANGEL….-3
§* – RED BARON….-4
§* – ARCTIC FEELING….-4
§* – SPACE ARTIST….-7
* – ROYAL BAJAN….-7
* – BOSUN BREESE….-8
* – MAYFIELD GIRL….-10
* – SILVANUS….-10
* – DUSTY STORM….-12
§* – BRONZE BEAU….-15
TUMBLEWIND….-15
TOWBEE….-25
CAPTAIN DUNNE….-26
SLEEPY BLUE OCEAN….-40

MY PLAY – Tight as a mallards backside, this is. HAAJES, BEDLOES ISLAND and HOLY ANGEL for my own bets…dutch, 20/80 HAAJES and exotics but we’ve a fair few in here that could take this cosy and if I squeeze a profit here I’ll be over the moon.

RESULT – When I first started doing what I do, way back in 2004, my own play was very simple. Top three dutch, a 20/80 my top rated plus exotics. Nothing else. Now I sometimes kick myself when results like this happen. The figures were superb but I got diddly from it. I know a fair few of you are “old school” and will have nailed this one….not me though.

DONCASTER 7-15

* – HALF A BILLION….+9
§* – LIGHTNIN HOPKINS….+8
§ – ANGUS OG….-1 – NR
T* – ENGLISHMAN….-1
HOOFALONG….-13
§ – RIGHT TOUCH….-19 – WON 4/1
BABY STRANGE….-26
§ – MUTAFAKIR….-26 – 3RD 9/2
DARK CASTLE….-28
T§ – CORPORAL MADDOX….-29 – 2ND 20/1
SACROSANCTUS….-33
MON BRAV….-40
SINGEUR….-40

MY PLAY – This will test my decision making skills! LIGHNIN HOPKINS is inn my Dutch and will carry my 20/80 but, two others needed. I’m thinking HALF A BILLION and ENGLISHMAN. Nothing like confident, more hopeful!

RESULT – Again the draw bias spotted absolutely but the only one of the four well drawn that did nothing, was the one that carried my money. Someone up there didn’t like me yesterday.

OF INTEREST SELECTIONS

I’d suggest they did very well yesterday.

SPECIAL MEANING – WON 9/2
(Goodwood 2-20) – 20/80
SHERSTON – 3RD 8/1
(Goodwood 5-10) – 20/80
PINZOLO – 3RD 9/1
(Newmarket 5-00) – 20/80
ANNAWI – 3RD 6/1
(Thirsk 2-25) – 20/80
BIG CHILL – UP
(Doncaster 6-15) – 20/80

Unfortunately non-runners stopped us drawing on ANNAWI as only seven went to post.

PROFILE RACES

Sole Power ensured a small profit came from those yesterday and the 4/1 that was available now looks gold dust. Sean Trivass also tipped that up on the Podcast so the Palace House was kind to us.

Today’s 1000Gns Profile horse will hopefully give Graham, our prize winner from last week, a nice return.

PODCAST COMPETITION

If you have not yet entered for this weeks competition all you have to do is tell us who rode the winner of the 1954 Triumph Hurdle

Send your answers to contact@postracing.net by 5-00pm Wednesday of next week and if your name comes out of the hat first, you win a free £10 bet on my main profile horse next Saturday.

ASSUMPTIONS:

HAMILTON PARK – Flat (Updated:04/05/2014 at 06:46:44)
Going
Good to Soft in places, Soft in places
(GoingStick: 7.3 on Sunday at 06:45)

Stalls
5F & 6F – Centre

Rails
All races over 1 Mile and beyond will measure approx 25yds
further than the official distances at this meeting due to the
rail set up on the loop.

Weather
0.2mm rain overnight. Overcast, still and dry start to the day;
risk of occasional light drizzle later. Max temp 13C.

NEWMARKET – Flat (Updated:04/05/2014 at 07:41:44)
Going
Good to Firm (Good in places)
(GoingStick: 7.9(Stand Side 7.9; Centre 8.0; Far Side 7.7) on
Saturday at 10:30)

Stalls
All Races Centre

Weather
Dry on Saturday and overnight.
Sunday: Dry and with sunny spells 16C.

SALISBURY – Flat (Updated:03/05/2014 at 15:38:56)
Going
Soft, Good to Soft in places
(GoingStick: 6.8 on Saturday at 15:30)

Stalls
5F, 6F, 7F – Far side

Weather
86mm rain between Sun 20th April & Thurs 1st May
Friday was cloudy but dry
Saturday has been warm and dry, and the condition of the course
has improved.
Sunday – Forecasted to be dry, some bright spells, 14’c.

* indicates horses having won previously on the going as currently described
§ indicates horses perceived as being best drawn
T INDICATES HORSES THAT HAVE TRAVELLED OVER 150 MILES OR MORE TO RACE

NEWMARKET 2-05

* – SALUTATION….+9
* – BANCNUANAHEIREANN….+9
* – URBAN DANCE….-2
* – CAFE SOCIETY….-10
AMRALAH….-17
VIEWPOINT….-20
* – ELHAAME….-21
* – MISS MARJURIE….-29
ABAAB….-34
* – MIGHTY YAR….-38
RAY WARD….-40
VAN PERCY….-40
CENTURIUS….-40
BUCKLAND….-40

MY PLAY – No draw bias here so it’s relatively simple this end. I will Dutch my top three, go 20/80 my top one and set up exotics…”old school”.

I’d certainly be thinking the winner is in my top four.

NEWMARKET 3-10

TAMAYUZ STAR….+9
* – SECONDO….+9
*HADAJ….+9
NINJAGO….+8
* – OUT DO….+4
§* – SECRETINTHEPARK….+2
§* – ASHPAN SAM….+1
§* – ZERO MONEY….+/-0
GO FAR….-3
§* – ALBEN STAR….-6
§* – PEARL ACCLAIM….-8
BADDILINI….-8
* – ZANETTO….-8
* – SWISS CROSS….-13
* – GOLDREAM….-13
§* – SEEKING MAGIC….-15
* – YEEOW….-15
* – CREW CUT….-18
§ – JIMMY STYLES….-19
KIMBERELLA….-30
HANNAHS TURN….-40

MY PLAY – I’ve only one in my top six carrying both §* and that’s copped for my 20/80. The draw bias to me looks to favour high over low, middle not that far off them and with SECONDO and HADAJ having secured low draws I’ll have them in my dutch/exotics, both having winning form on the going as currently described. This is mighty competitive and I’ll skip through a hoop if i have this right.

HAMILTON 1-55

T* – MANATEE BAY….+11
CHLOE’S DREAM….+9
§T – THE NIFTY FOX….-2
§T – LOTHAIR….-6
§T* – AMENABLE….-10
T – ECONOMIC CRISIS….-16
FINDOG….-20
T – PROFILE STAR….-32

MY PLAY – Believe it or not, i’ve spotted a draw bias in an eight runner race, if this is run how I think it will be run. High do look favoured. I’m going to dutch rated horses 1, 3 and 6 with my 20/80 going the way of AMENABLE. It is one of those races that if it were run again tomorrow we’d get a different result but that thing carries 3 x icons so I will have a bet on an Ann Stokell horse…probably my first!

HAMILTON 2-30

§* – ALEXANDRAKOLLONTAI….+11
T – SHADY MCCOY….+11
§T* – KLYNCH….+11
T* – BAPAK CHINTA….+10
§T* – SUNRAIDER….+10
§ – RASAMAN….+9
T – FEEL THE HEAT….+4
T – KHELMAN….+2
§T – BONNIE CHARLIE….-2
T – BE LUCKY….-14
T – LADY IBROX….-33

MY PLAY – How tight does this look! Middle look best boxed and I’ve three in my top five, 1, 3 & 5, boasting icons for going/draw….they are dutched. My 20/80 will go the way of KLYNCH as I’m going to experiment with this “traveller” situation for the rest of this month to see if it has an impact. Sometimes you can over egg an omelette but, we’ll see how things pan out.

BE LUCKY is unexposed and impossible to set a proper figure for.

HAMILTON 4-10

§T – LORD FRANKLIN….+10
* – KYLLACHY STAR….+9
§* – TED’S BROTHER….+8
§ – TECTONIC….-2
§ – ANOTHER FOR JOE….-5
T – I’M SUPER TOO….-5
NEVER FOREVER….-10
§ – RIOJA DAY….-11
VITTACHI….-15
ROYAL STRAIGHT….-18
T – SAVED BY THE BELL….-23
T – STAFFHOSS….-26
HENPECKED….-30

MY PLAY – Only two of these have winning form on the going as currently described and, they sit in my top three. I’m thinking I’ll just set up a top three dutch, go 20/80 TED’S BROTHER and tinker with those exotics.

HAMILTON 4-45

ARYAL….+4
* – LINGUINE….-3
PIXIE CUT….-11
JONNY DELTA….-17
O MA LAD….-21
SIRVINO….-30
CATEGORICAL….-40

MY PLAY – Nasty looking affair. My top two are silly prices so I’ll play them to October Rules but I’m not expecting much from it.

HAMILTON 5-20

§T* – CAPTAIN SCOOBY….+8
§T – ICHIMOKU….+1
* – TWO TURTLE DOVES….-6
ROCK CANYON….-12
§T – PAVERS STAR….-17
T – SPRING BIRD….-20
§ – CLASSY ANNE….-21
TADALAVIL….-21
T – BUSY BIMBO….-27
AMIS REUNIS….-27
T – ROY’S LEGACY….-35

MY PLAY – I’ll most certainly be having a goodly 20/80 my top one and, he heads my dutch. Top three dutch to pay for it and, exotics.

Have a great day and the very best of luck if you are getting involved.

Kindest regards

Ron

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