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Post Racing Podcast 4th April 2014

4th April 2014 – Post Racing Podcast with Ron Robinson and Sean Trivass
[ca_audio url_mp3=”http://www.merseysidewebdesign.com/temppodcasts/PostRacing%20Podcast%204th%20April%202014.mp3″ url_ogg=”OGGURL” css_class=”codeart-google-mp3-player” autoplay=”false” download=”false” html5=”false”] Sean and Ron discuss the Grand National, announce the winner of the first Podcast competition and ask you to get your thinking caps on for this weeks brainteaser, which Sean has prepared for us.

please find below the Profiling for the great race and the name of the horse on which our winner already has £20 on @ 20/1!

THE GRAND NATIONAL PROFILE

My starting point, with any race, is age groupings. For races such as these experience is vital and this is borne out by the fact that of the last 10 running’s, nothing younger than nine years of age has been able to triumph.

The last four running’s have been taken by 10 and 11 year olds.

My first “short list” is composed of those in the correct age bracket:

TIDAL BAY
LONG RUN
HUNT BALL
QUITO DE LA ROQUE
COLBERT STATION
WALKON
BALTHAZAR KING
WAYWARD PRINCE
MR MOONSHINE
TEAFORTHREE
ACROSS THE BAY
BATTLE GROUP
LION DE BERNAI
PRINCE DE BEAUCHENE
MONBEG DUDE
BIG SHU
BURTON PORT
MOUNTAINOUS
THE RAINBOW HUNTER
CHANCE DU ROY
HAWKES POINT
PINEAU DE RE
GOLAN WAY
THE PACKAGE
RAZ DE MAREE
ROSE OF THE MOON
SHAKALAKABOOMBOOM
ALVARADO
LAST TIME D’ALBAIN
ONE IN A MILAN
SWING BILL

In the last 10 years no fewer than 87 6, 7 and 8 year olds have competed in a Grand National and only six…all eight year olds….have even managed to place.

My next port of call is always weight ranges. The first thing I always do is, bin the top weight. Red Rum was the last of them to get his head in front and Tidal bay would get the old shepherds crook because of his age anyway….1923 you have to trawl back to, to find a horse older than 12 winning a Grand National.

Trainers know what they have to do to get one handicapped for these races and here we have the knowledge that nine of the last 10 Nationals were won by horses in the weight range 10st 6lb – 11st 6lb and I can now trim my first shortlist:

QUITO DE LA ROQUE
COLBERT STATION
WALKON
BALTHAZAR KING
WAYWARD PRINCE
MR MOONSHINE
TEAFORTHREE
ACROSS THE BAY
BATTLE GROUP
LION DE BERNAI
PRINCE DE BEAUCHENE
MONBEG DUDE
BIG SHU
BURTON PORT
MOUNTAINOUS
THE RAINBOW HUNTER
CHANCE DU ROY
HAWKES POINT
PINEAU DE RE

Down to 19….

Favourites have performed quite well in recent years, six of the last 10 finishing in the first three past the post and the current tissue favourite sits in that second shortlist.

Only three have won though and that means it’s most likely not going to be Teaforthree winning tomorrow. I have a couple of other stats to put by you later that further explains why I could not be backing Rebecca’s horse, too.

I cannot have horses onside that won at the Cheltenham Festival. Balthazar King won that Cross Country thing and if he wins, I lose. The last Festival winner to win a National was Seagram in 1991 and he was the first since 1961!

Another reason to bin the Hobbs horse is Richard Johnson. Great jockey that he is, he is also the “top jockey least likely to”, he currently holding the “title” of most rides, no winner….16 rides in a National now and just one runners up spot to show for his efforts.

I’ll give you two more reasons now why Teaforthree is being dropped. Amberliegh House is the only horse in the last 20 years to pull it off. The Podcast question last week revolved around Hallo Dandy and the reason I chose that race was because he was the last horse to win a Grand National before AH, having been in the first four, in the race the previous season. That’s a long time ago! Not though, as long ago as the year you have to go back to, to find the last Welsh trained Grand National winner….1905!!

Sorry, Becky, as good as your horse is, me being a stats man, I couldn’t have him off that pair alone. You also have to go back to Rough Quest, to find a horse winning a Grand National after running in the Gold Cup the same season.

QUITO DE LA ROQUE
COLBERT STATION
WALKON
WAYWARD PRINCE
MR MOONSHINE
ACROSS THE BAY
BATTLE GROUP
LION DE BERNAI
PRINCE DE BEAUCHENE
MONBEG DUDE
BIG SHU
BURTON PORT
MOUNTAINOUS
THE RAINBOW HUNTER
CHANCE DU ROY
HAWKES POINT
PINEAU DE RE

We need to trim this back a tad further and I’m taking out horses aged older than 10. Seven of the last 10 winners were aged 9/10 and whilst I think Prince de Beauchene was born to win a National (I have the ashes of burned ante-post vouchers over the last two years to prove it), he’s proven “brittle” and has probably missed the boat.

Better horses are now winning this races and it’s a fact that eight of the last 10 winners had won a handicap worth at least £17k to the winner.

QUITO DE LA ROQUE
COLBERT STATION
WAYWARD PRINCE
MR MOONSHINE
ACROSS THE BAY
BATTLE GROUP
MONBEG DUDE
BIG SHU
BURTON PORT
MOUNTAINOUS
THE RAINBOW HUNTER
CHANCE DU ROY

I now have it down to that dozen above.

If we are going to trust to an Irish trained horse, then we need to be sure they have followed the “master plan”, that being having raced over hurdles on at least one of their previous two starts…a plan also used by both Donald McCain with Ballabriggs and Jonjo O’Neill with Don’t Push It.

I’m prepared to exclude the three travelling from the Emerald Isle on the basis they have raced only over fences on either of those last two runs.

Shortlist now =

WAYWARD PRINCE
MR MOONSHINE
ACROSS THE BAY
BATTLE GROUP
MONBEG DUDE
BURTON PORT
MOUNTAINOUS
THE RAINBOW HUNTER
CHANCE DU ROY

Down to nine.

I’m now going to remove the “mudlarks”. We currently have a going description of good/good to soft and those of you that know me, know I have a solid reliance on form having been achieved on the going as currently described.

Below is the shortlist now, containing horses that have won on good/good to soft:

WAYWARD PRINCE
MR MOONSHINE
BATTLE GROUP
MONBEG DUDE
BURTON PORT
THE RAINBOW HUNTER
CHANCE DU ROY

Down to seven.

Six of the last 10 winners had won or placed on the last run coming into this, so being in some kind of form has “merit”.

MR MOONSHINE – 33/1
BURTON PORT – 20/1
THE RAINBOW HUNTER – 33/1
CHANCE DU ROY – 33/1

Down to four. I’d be quite happy having that quartet running for me in a dutch at the current respective prices.

I’m now looking for just one to have a 20/80 on….

I generally compare official ratings with those compiled by Racing Post (RPR’s), and nothing carrying an RPR of bigger than 169 has won in the last 10 years so, that would allow me to trim this down to just two:

BURTON PORT – RPR 163
THE RAINBOW HUNTER – RPR 169

The first named was posted up by myself as a Grand National winner a couple of years back but he went the same was as Prince De Beauchene in that he copped for an injury that looked to have done for him.

Transferred from Nicky Henderson to Jonjo O’Neill by Trevor Hemmings, he has been slowly nursed back to form and ran a blinder in a veterans race at the beginning of March, running up on ground that would be considered his least favourite. Since going over fences he has won five and been runner up in five of his 14 runs over them and that’s good, consistent form.

He has never fallen in his career under rules and with these fences now built to appease I can see him sailing around and giving us a big run for our money.

POST RACING PROFILE HORSE = BURTON PORT – 20/80

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