Whilst we believe we provide the very best private handicap figures, they only genuinely apply to handicap races of a certain value. Race Profiling looks at a race in a different way. They take in races that have a good prize attached because we know horses going for those prizes are “off”. Trainers will have set them up as legitimate targets and they are not running for a handicap mark.
I trawl back through 10 years history of each race and produce a selection based on what that history tells me. I’m a firm believer that everything happens for a reason.
Below are a couple of recent examples of the text supplied to our members and the results produced by Race Profiling:
AINTREE 3-25 – Ratings
*DUKE OF LUCCA….-3
*MINELLA FOR VALUE….-19
SIR DU BEARN….-40
Seven of the last 10 winners carried less than 11st and that indicates to me that, whilst it’s not impossible to win carrying more, because three have, you have a bit of an advantage if you’ve got less lead in the saddle.
I’m looking at the race card now and that means it’s Victor Hewgo, down for “shortlisting”.
Six year olds have a cracking good record in this. During the last 10 years 16 from that age group have tried to win this, three have succeeded and three have placed…not a bad old strike rate. However, in recent times the older horses have dominated it, four of the last five winners aged eight or older.
Unioniste, a six year old, is unbeaten in two previous trips to Aintree but looks to have a job on off that weight.
I’ll work with older horses in my weight ranging and we can drop both Wetak (who ran a good race at Cheltenham), and Kian’s Delight.
My inclination is to drop horses that failed to finish on their last start. Whilst coming here off the back of a win or placing isn’t vitally important (three of the last 10 winners had come here off the back of a win, one of the last five and, only one had placed form), it’s nice to not have a P next to a horses name because I’d want concrete proof nothing ailed the horse and that he was pilled up because it was simply being looked after.
My first shortlist is:
MINELLA FOR VALUE
DUKE OF LUCCA
The tissue is my next port of call.
The winner could have been found in the first five in the market on six of the last nine occasions and only two of that quintet qualify
VICTOR HEWGO – 3/1F
DUKE OF LUCCA – 12/1
Favourites haven’t performed badly, winning two of the last seven running’s and placing in two others but with the prices on offer and knowing that three of the last four winners went off 11/1, 10/1 and 12/1 I’m going to dutch that pair but suggest DUKE OF LUCCA as my Profile horse
POST RACING PROFILE HORSE = DUKE OF LUCCA – 20/80 – WON 12/1