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Today’s Ratings and Advice 20/03/14

In the last two days I’ve had two e-mails and a call come in from members and it simply shows the difference in the mindsets of punters. We really are fascinating people and I’m sure psychologists have tried to study us in the past but given up on the search for the “perfect punter”.

The discussions regarding laying do seem to have captured the imagination of a fair few members, too. I am accumulating the e-mails coming in and I’ll be discussing everything with you very shortly. A few new things will be in place come the end of this month, with an eye on the start of the new flat racing season.

I will be taking a couple of weeks out after Aintree to firstly give myself time to recuperate properly, and to recharge the batteries that have taken a right old hiding this winter. During those two weeks each day I will be looking to add the names of horses to the Post Racing list of 20 to Follow this coming flat racing season. So, not so much time off but a few minutes to relax.

From March 31st I myself ceases betting on the jumpers and starts preparing for the assault on the layers for the 2014 flat racing season. I have been looking at the calendar and it doesn’t really get doing much of anything until around the 7th of April and it’ll be a case of “sighters only”.

I don’t bet on anything during this period (April), as it’s the time of year the jumpers are being let down and the flat boys are getting theirs ready for the five months commencing May. That is when my season starts.

We will be setting up our very first members naps competition and we’ll have some fun with it, I’m sure. We will put up a nice prize for our winner to enjoy.

How did we do yesterday?

HAYDOCK 2-10

CARLI KING….+12
*BLENHEIM BROOK….+9 – 3RD
*PRESENTED….+8 – 2ND 9/2
*BENNYS WELL….-6 – WON 11/1
*HARRIS….-12
*PURCELL’S BRIDGE….-15
DANCING ART….-22

ADVICE – Here I will be dutching rated horses 2 & 3, going 20/80 BLENHEIM BROOK and setting up a small exotic.

RESULT – The top three rated marked * were the first three home…unfortunately not in the correct order but, with the favourite, HARRIS, out of the first four home, I’m happy my figures were right enough.

HAYDOCK 2-40

*RUMBLE OF THUNDER….+13 – 2ND 6/1
HIDDEN JUSTICE….+12 – WON 8/1
*MASTER OF THE HALL….+9
*TOP GAMBLE….+8
*THE KNOXS….+8 – 3RD – 20/1
SHALONE….+/-0
CLOUD CREEPER….-9
*DARTFORD WARBLER….-10
*KAYAAN….-25
MOVEABLE ASSET….-33

THREE TO DUTCH – RUMBLE OF THUNDER, MASTER OF THE HALL, TOP GAMBLE
20/80 – RUMBLE OF THUNDER
EXOTICS – RUMBLE OF THUNDER, MASTER OF THE HALL, TOP GAMBLE
LAY – NONE

ADVICE – With several of these still lightly enough raced it’s hard to be confident but, I’ll work as indicated and we’ll see what happens.

RESULT – Outstanding ratings, a short head between my top two at the line but what can I say…another top rated horse coming home second and I felt for all of us here because I imagine we were all on! First three him in my top five rated….very happy with my accuracy.

HAYDOCK 3-40

*KARAZHAN….+11
*DISPOUR….+11 – NR
*KUDU COUNTRY….+3 – WON 14/1
*DISCOVERY BAY….-1 – 2ND 5/1
*ROBBIE….-1
*MOSCOW ME….-7
ROMAN FLIGHT….-17
SLEEPY HAVEN….-17
*AAZIF….-17
SMART RULER….-28

THREE TO DUTCH – KARAZHAN, DISPOUR, KUDU COUNTRY
20/80 – KARAZHAN
EXOTICS – KARAZHAN, DISPOUR, KUDU COUNTRY
LAY – NONE

ADVICE – Three obtaining a plus figure, all good to go on the ground so, they’ll be the ones I work with but, this is a little cracker of a race and the one winking at me is Roman Flight. I’m intrigued as to why Wayne Hutchinson, who has a serious strike rate here, would come for just this one ride.

RESULT – With DISPOUR out I managed to land my dutch, brought DISCOVERY BAY into my bets in place of the non-runner (good old Natural Progression!), spotted up a nice enough 79/1 CSF and the 57/1 Exacta….Betfred really have scuppered decent Tote dividends, haven’t they! As I expected, Roman Flight ran a good race to finish third but my top rated hated the track and didn’t handle the bends at all.

HAYDOCK 4-15

*NOBLE LEGEND….+14
*REAPING THE REWARD….+11
*GRANVILLE ISLAND….+11 – 3RD
*RUDEMEISTER….+9
REAL MILAN….+4 – 2ND
*GANSEY….-1
*TIPTOEAWAY….-12
*SHADOWS LENGTHEN….-13 – WON 5/1
ROS CASTLE….-40

THREE TO DUTCH – NOBLE LEGEND, REAPING THE REWARD, GRANVILLE ISLAND
20/80 – NOBLE LEGEND
EXOTICS – NOBLE LEGEND, REAPING THE REWARDS, GRANVILLE ISLAND
LAY – SHADOWS LENGTHEN

ADVICE – I am absolutely loving this race. It struck me a a good nun as soon as I started working on it and don’t be put off by those horses having letters instead of numbers next to their names from their last outings. My lay could quite easily win this but I’m after it already.

RESULT – Don’t you just hate “predictive text” – good nun? – I just sat here shaking my head as my lay got up right on the post to win by a short head. Right now I am sure someone, somewhere, is sticking pins in a voodoo doll of me….probably more than one person, actually!
No hiding place in this game though and it’s as I keep saying, you have a losing day, you treat it just as you would any other or, what’s the point?

WARWICK 3-20

*BALLYVONEEN….-13
*BISHOPHILL JACK….-13
CORNISH ICE….-17
*HANDSOME BUDDY….-20 – WON 11/4
GET READY TO GO….-40
VOLLO VINCENTE….-40

ADVICE – Top pair to October Rules….pretty poor race, isn’t it!

RESULT – Betting on the first couple of rated races here was a bit like being given the job of licking envelopes closed all day. My top rated was well punted 11/2 > 7/2 but after he’d cruised up to the backend of the leader he simply didn’t fancy it….low grade horses for you. The first time I’ve heard of good to firm being added to a going description for a long, long time and proof positive the flat racing is just around the corner.

WARWICK 3-55

*GO AMWELL….-15
LISHEEN HILL….-25 – 3RD 8/1
WINGED CRUSADER….-30 – WON 11/4
GRAND GIGOLO….-32
*ESTATES RECOVERY….-35
DANCING DAFFODIL….-35
JOHN’S GEM….-40
VAL D’ALLIER….-40
DIXIE BULL….-40
SQUIRE TRELAWNEY….-40

ADVICE – A race I will avoid like the old plague. My top rated needs Huntingdon and another furlong.

RESULT – Again superbly happy with my figures, two of the first three home in my top three but I didn’t part with a penny.

WARWICK 4-30

IRON BUTTERFLY….+11 – 3RD 12/1
WOODLAND WALK….+8 – 2ND 10/1
DREAMS AND SONGS….-6
*DANCINGTILMIDNGHT….-15
*WEATHER BABE….-23
POLLY PEACHUM….-23
MISS LUCKY PENNY….-29
QUEEN SPUD….-40
A SHADE OF BAY….-40
LADY KATHLEEN….-40
BARTON ROSE….-40

ADVICE – I’ll just have a teedly 20/80 DANCINGTILMIDNIGHT and see if she improves back on better ground. Wont cost me much to find out.

RESULT – Lost for words….cracking good figures and I don’t know whether to breath a sigh of relief that my top pair didn’t offer up what would have been a superb dividend or not. Top rated punters must be thinking the whole world is against them right now!

WARWICK 5-00

FREE WORLD….+14 – 4TH 14/1
ALPANCHO….+10
ROLL THE DICE….+8
*SPEED MASTER….+8 – WON 7/1 > 5/1
ROCKCHASEBULLETT….-3
*WESSEX KING….-9
*THE NEPHEW….-10
*ENTERTAIN ME….-19
*BRODY BLEU….-25

ADVICE – Another race that doesn’t exactly inspire me to get involved but, in the first time visor, I might just risk a small 20/80 SPEED MASTER bit with no confidence of drawing anything but a small loss if I do.

RESULT – Small 20/80 went on but not a lot back…just pleased to be able to say I got one!

Only one of those races yesterday was won by a horse not carrying the *….

ASSUMPTIONS
CHEPSTOW – Jump (Updated:18/03/2014 at 13:02:25)
Going
Good
(GoingStick: Chase 7.4 Hurdle 7.7 on Tuesday at 12:30)

Weather
Forecast: Dry and breezy with sunny spells on Wednesday.
Rain from midday on Thursday, 3-4mm.

LUDLOW – Jump (Updated:18/03/2014 at 11:50:13)
Going
Good, good to soft in places .
(GoingStick: 7.8 on Tuesday at 11:00)

Weather
Breezy and becoming cooler. Possibility of a light shower today .
Dry Wednesday and breezy. Up to 5mm of rain coming in Thursday
but not arriving till mid afternoon.

Watering
Watering today to maintain the good ground.

*INDICATES HORSES HAVING WON PREVIOUSLY ON THE GOING AS CURRENTLY DESCRIBED ABOVE

CHEPSTOW 2-30

PENNANT DANCER….+3
STRAITS OF MESSINA….-7
*DELPHI MOUNTAIN….-12
TAKE THE CROWN….-20
OUT OF NOTHING….-25
LODGICIAN….-28
DONNACHAS CHANT….-33
PEARL….-35
DRUMGOOLAND….-35
BENEFITOFHINDSIGHT….-35
WHEELAVIM….-35
MISTER FANTASTIC….-40
TENBY JEWEL….-40
OSCAR RAINBOW….-40
BILLY MY BOY….-40
GENEROUS BOB….-40
CHANCE ENCOUNTER….-40
CRACKERJACK….-40

ADVICE – A question to the punters of the top rated horse only. What are you expecting? It’s a Class 5 event, our top rated has never won a race before, it has never gone off shorter than 16/1 in 12 previous attempts under rules (gone off 50/1 or bigger in 10 of those 12 races and over 100/1 in four), the two times it has raced at Chepstow it fell and was last of eight, beaten 88 lengths (100/1). This afternoon they replace visor with cheekpieces and leave off the tongue strap.

Does my having it top rated mean it will win? Nope….and that applies to every single race I work on.

What will I personally be doing with this race? Will I personally bet on it? Imagine my face right now as I’m looking at this….similar to that when the cat is on your lap and let’s out a sneaky one.

That Pennant Dancer can top my figures is indicative of just how poor a race this is. He may well win but if he does, I’ll be sitting here having missed it. You? A no bet race for me personally, as I’m sure you will have gathered!

CHEPSTOW 3-40

MAURICETHEATHLETE….+11
*ADDICTION….+8
*RICH BUDDY….-4
MILO MILAN….-11
ROYAL PALLADIUM….-21
MIDNIGHT OSCAR….-25
GARDE FOU….-27
CASH INJECTION….-40
SOLSTICE SON….-40
SANDANSKI….-40

ADVICE – If I have a bet here it’ll just be a small 20/80 ADDICTION. Only three of this field finished in the first three last time out, we have an odds on shot rating -40, half of this lot have the beginning of a Scrabble rack next to their names and it’s just not a race I’d be interested in getting heavily involved in myself.

CHEPSTOW 4-15

*DARK GLACIER….-2
*SPECIAL ACCOUNT….-3
*CAMDEN….-15
BARLOW….-18
*COUNTING HOUSE….-25
REBECCA’S CHOICE….-36
THE MUSICAL GUY….-38

ADVICE – Today I’m trying to give you a clear idea as to what we are working with. Camden has not won a race since January 2013….on heavy. He has managed to win on good ground, way back in 2011. He currently 3.45 clear favourite. Barlow trades second favourite….4.5….has won two races in his life, never on ground quicker than good to soft. My top rated trades 6.8….nice….if he wins….last win came on heavy and his good ground win came in February 2012. What are you expecting? Me? Not a lot. I’ll dutch my top two, have a 20/80 my top one and give it a Ronaldo across the laminate if I’m right. If I’m wrong, next race.

LUDLOW 4-40

*SONOFVAGUN….+8
LAST SHOT….+8
*CHANGING THE GUARD….+7
*OYSTER SHELL….-2
ZARZAL….-7
*GRACCHUS….-15
*HIGHWAY CODE….-20
PARSNIP PETE….-27

ADVICE – Best race of my four. My top rated seems to have taken to chasing, winning one, placing in one from three attempts to date. Has a good ground win, trip should be ok and he’s 4.2 win….1.64 place. I’ve gone in 20/80. I’ll look at my dutching options, the potential for exotics and we’ll see where we go but it’ll be horses rated 1, 3 and 4 I’m working with on those plays, if they happen.

Have a brilliant day and best of luck.

Kindest regards

Ron

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