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Today’s Ratings and Advice 15/03/14

What an amazing week that was. I don’t know about you but for me, every single day just seem to blend into each other and Saturday has arrived before I know what has happened!

Since Sunday of last week I have been putting in 18 hour days trying my best to find winners for you….over 100 hours…now that’s scary!

We provide you with what we believe to be the best resource for punters and deliver it daily, to your inbox, through the medium of podcasts and via our website and Cheltenham surely proved that! Some superb results, both in the Newsletters and in those podcasts Sean and I did each day. We hope those that listened in enjoyed them.

The e-mails we got yesterday following the end of the Festival, thanking us for the “Special”, were brilliant. Thank you to those that wrote in, much appreciated.

I missed the first three races yesterday as I was at St Cyril’s Rehabilitation Centre, which is on the Countess Of Chester Hospital complex, meeting up with two of the OT’s that had helped me at Clatterbridge, Flick and Kiri. We were there to look around the Sensory Garden they have, so that we can now put together a plan of just what we want to achieve at the Clatterbridge Rehabilitation Centre.

They arrived just as the County Hurdle was about to get under way so I switched my phone off and missed the commentary. I was totally oblivious as to what was happening as the three of us were shown two areas that have been designed specifically for those patients there to be able to enjoy a garden, plant out, prune and enjoy the process of healing, whilst being motivated to get better.

As we were walking around though my phone started “bleeping”, as texts and e-mails came in following the success of Lac Fontana. It was only as we left following our visit that I knew what had been going on though and I showed the girls some of the messages that had come through. A lot of you were on, it seems!

They are fully aware it is you that is making their garden happen and the looks on their faces – I should have taken a picture!

We raised close to £1600 through the Cheltenham Special and I have told them that we will do the same for them when Royal Ascot comes around. I will also be looking at other ways of raising funding for them in the interim period.

Today is extremely busy, four meetings to work through and 13 rated races….I turned my light off last night just turned 11-00pm having prepped those races and let’s hope it was worth the efforts!

ASSUMPTIONS
FONTWELL PARK – Jump (Updated:15/03/2014 at 06:48:33)
Going
Good to Soft, Soft in places
(GoingStick: 6.7 on Saturday at 06:30)

Rails
Hurdles outer.
Bends moved onto fresh ground.
All fences will be jumped.

Weather
Forecast: A dry day with sunny spells.

KEMPTON PARK – Jump (Updated:15/03/2014 at 06:42:16)
Going
Good to Soft, Good in places
(GoingStick: Chase 6.6; Hurdle 6.3 on Friday at 13:00)

Rails
All rail moved out 3 yards; all distances as advertised.

Weather
Dry overnight.
Saturday: Dry with periods of sunshine, max temp +14c.

Watering
7mm of water applied on Thursday from the start of back straight
to the winning post.

Other
Ground conditions may stay the same or dry to Good, Good to Soft
in Places by racing.

NEWCASTLE – Jump (Updated:15/03/2014 at 06:38:04)
Going
Home straight: GOOD, Good to Firm in places
Back straight: GOOD, Good to Soft in places
(GoingStick: 7.0 on Thursday at 00:00)

Rails
Hurdle sites relocated on to best ground available.
Rail at 3m bend moved 4m in onto best ground available.
Rail on bend into home straight moved 3m in onto best ground
available.
Dividing rail between Hurdle & Chase in last furlong removed.

Weather
Cool dry & breezy this am.
Similar forecast for rest of day.
Temps up to 13c with stiff breeze.
Drying.

UTTOXETER – Jump (Updated:14/03/2014 at 08:23:39)
Going
Ch -SOFT – GOOD to SOFT in places
Hur- GOOD to SOFT – SOFT in places
(Chute – HEAVY)
(Improving)
(GoingStick: 51 on Friday at 06:45)

Rails
Hurdlers on the inside with course at its shortest. Divided
bends on fresher ground. Fence 2 (open ditch) and Fence 8 (last
in back straight) both renewed. There will be no hurdle in the
chute for the 2m hurdle races.

Weather
8mm rain late last week. Dry since with sunny afternoons. Cold,
damp and foggy morning but will brighten and warm up. Similar
tonight/tomorrow then more cloud later today through to Saturday
which will be cooler with a light breeze. No measurable rain
forecast.

*INDICATES HORSES HAVING WON PREVIOUSLY ON THE GOING AS CURRENTLY DESCRIBED ABOVE

KEMPTON 2-55

*GOLDEN HOOF….+13
*BENBANE HEAD….+3
*IMPERIAL LEADER….-3
*ANOTHER HERO….-4
*LORD PROTECTOR….-8
*DRUN VALLEY….-8
*EMPIRE LEVANT….-18
*LEGACY GOLD….-21
*CANNON FODDER….-22
PRIDEOFTHECASTLE….-26
*SEVENTH SIGN….-27
TRADITIONAL BOB….-27
LORD OF SCOTLAND….-33
PORTWAY FLYER….-35
CAROLE’S DESTRIER….-40
HOME RUN….-40
CARRIGMORNA KING….-40
MARCILHAC….-40
BYGONES SOVEREIGN….-40
SPECIAL CATCH….-40

THREE TO DUTCH – GOLDEN HOOF, BENBANE HEAD, IMPERIAL LEADER
20/80 – GOLDEN HOOF
EXOTICS – GOLDEN HOOF, BENBANE HEAD, IMPERIAL LEADER
LAY – LEGACY GOLD

ADVICE – Ultra competitive heat that even the one at the bottom of my figures could win! I will work with my figures though and we’ll see what happens.

KEMPTON 3-30

*TOP OF THE RANGE….+15
CLOUDY BOB….+12
*SAVED BY JOHN….-5
*THE COCKNEY MACKEM….-7
LOST LEGEND….-9
*LE GRAND CHENE….-13
AL ALFA….-19
*ROYAL GUARDSMAN….-24
*BAR DE LIGNE….-25
NOTARFBAD….-32
ELENIKA….-38
THE ROMFORD PELE….-40
NEAREST THE PIN….-40

THREE TO DUTCH – TOP OF THE RANGE, SAVED BY JOHN, THE COCKNEY MACKEM
20/80 – TOP OF THE RANGE
EXOTICS – TOP OF THE RANGE, SAVED BY JOHN, THE COCKNEY MACKEM
LAY – THE ROMFORD PELE

ADVICE – Three highest rated in my top six bearing the * will do for my own bets….another very competitive event though and my lay starts his handicapping career this afternoon…hopefully my figures are correct!!

KEMPTON 5-15

WHISPERING JACK….-9
BILLY DUTTON….-15
MIC AUBIN….-18
CAMPBONNAIS….-20
MIDNIGHT MACARENA….-32
BADGERS COVE….-40
VENETIAN LAD….-40

ADVICE – This is simply all over the place. A no bet one for me personally.

UTTOXETER 3-15

SWYNYMOR….-2
IRISH BUCCANEER….-6
*INDIAN DAUDAIE….-7
*SEYMOUR ERIC….-15
*AUBUSSON….-15
*VIVACCIO….-16
SAPHIR RIVER….-18
*SONGSMITH….-23
LIBERTY ONE….-29
PROMPTER….-34
TWOWAYS….-40
BOB TUCKER….-40
SUNNY LEDGEND….-40
BALLINALACKEN….-40

ADVICE – Another I’m not all that sweet on from a punting perspective. I’ll possibly just post up an October Rules play those three highest rated marked *….possibly!

UTTOXETER 3-50

*JUNIOR….+6
PETE THE FEAT….+6
*WEST END ROCKER….+2
*GOULANES….-1
*ALFIE SPINNER….-3
*HARRY TOPPER….-7
*FIREBIRD FLYER….-11
*SUMMERY JUSTICE….-13
*BRADLEY….-13
FILL THE POWER….-21
*WYCK HILL….-27
*SUN CLOUD….-28
*ALPHA VICTOR….-32
*LOCH BA….-40
EMPEROR’S CHOICE….-40
RED ROCCO….-40
ARE YA RIGHT CHIEF….-40

THREE TO DUTCH – JUNIOR, WEST END ROCKER, GOULANES
20/80 – JUNIOR
EXOTICS – JUNIOR, WEST END ROCKER, GOULANES
LAY – NONE

ADVICE – Below is a repeat of the profiling and we’ll see which, if either, is right.

PROFILING

Nothing older than nine years of age has won this in the last nine years so the first list we work from consists of:

HARRY TOPPER
GOULANES
EMPEROR’S CHOICE
SUN CLOUD
FILL THE POWER
ARE YA RIGHT CHIEF
ALPHA VICTOR
ALFIE SPINNER
RED ROCCO
LOCH BA
FIREBIRD FLYER

That’s got rid of six of them.

Nothing has carried more than 11st 6lb to victory in that same time period and so we lose what is thought of as a Gold cup horse if the mud is flying, Harry Topper

GOULANES – 11/2
EMPEROR’S CHOICE –
SUN CLOUD – 7/1
FILL THE POWER – 9/1
ARE YA RIGHT CHIEF – 8/1
ALPHA VICTOR
ALFIE SPINNER
RED ROCCO
LOCH BA
FIREBIRD FLYER

The winner has been in the first six in the market in five of the last eight season so let’s see how that stacks up:

GOULANES – 11/2
SUN CLOUD – 7/1
FILL THE POWER – 9/1
ARE YA RIGHT CHIEF – 8/1

Starting to look more manageable.

Only one favourite has managed to pull this out of the bag so, I’m dropping Goulanes, despite the stable being on blob right now. I must be nuts because he carries a very similar profile to the 2012 winner, Master Overseer and the stable has taken this race for the last three seasons. If something else is backed into favouritism I’m going to look stupid but, right now, he has to go.

SUN CLOUD – 7/1
FILL THE POWER – 9/1
ARE YA RIGHT CHIEF – 8/1

The winner of three of the last five running’s has been found in the top three in the market and the second favourite has won two of he last four.

Using what I have here the Post Racing profile horse has to be:

SUN CLOUD – 20/80

UTTOXETER 4-25

*HOLLINS….+8
LORD OF DRUMS….-7
*CRYSTAL SWING….-7
TIQUER….-11
MATERIAL BOY….-17
KINGCORA….-18
GENTLE BOB….-21
PENSNETT BAY….-34
ITSUPTOYOU….-40

ADVICE – My top one is clear on my numbers and he’s my 20/80…dutch rated horses 1 & 3 to pay for that bet and offer up some insurance.

NEWCASTLE 2-50

SHARNEY SIKE….+1
*DEFINITE APPEAL….+/-0
DINGO BAY….-11
*BALTIC PATHFINDER….-20
*EVERAARD….-25
GIBBSTOWN….-28
WAR ON….-33

ADVICE – Rated horses 2 & 4 dutched for me but staking here will be on the low side as it’s anticipated the ground will continue to dry out through the day.

NEWCASTLE 3-25

*LONE FOOT LADDIE….+17
*COOL SKY….+12
FISHER….+11
*STORMY WEATHER….+9
DUMBARTON….-9
SATANIC BEAT….-19
CIRCUS STAR….-40

ADVICE – Top pair dutch, 20/80 my top one and an exotic but again, staking minimal.

NEWCASTLE 4-00

*LACKAMON….+9
RYTON RUNNER….+8
*MERRYDOWN….+7
MOSCOW PRESENTS….-15
HOLLOW TREE….-16
TIMESISHARD….-40
WAYWARD GLANCE….-40
MASTERLEADERMAN…..-40

ADVICE – I believe my top rated is going to run a big race here as the ground is now coming right for him. Dutch rated horses 1 & 3 but a straight win punt my top one….small exotic, too.

NEWCASTLE 4-35

BALLYCOOL….+15
*LITTLE JIMMY….+14
CLOVERHILL LAD….+12
*PAMAK D’AIRY…-8
*BOCAMIX….-18
INOOGOO….-21
LILLIOFTHEBALLET….-32

ADVICE – Three clear on my figures but only one of them having won previously on the going as currently described. I’ll just have a little 20/80 that one marked * in my top pair.

NEWCASTLE 5-10

*MOOTABAR….+8
NORTHERN ACRES….-2
*ANOTHER DIMENSION….-7
JASPER MASSINI….-10
*ALLEZ COOL….-15
FOOT THE BILL….-19
NEXIUS….-40
BONNET’S VINO….-40

ADVICE – By the time this comes around we’ll all be worn out, I’m sure. Rated horses 1, 3 and 5 for me to work with and I’ll see what the layers are offering when setting up my dutch etc.

FONTWELL 3-05

INDIAN DAUDAIE….+7
*OURMANMASSINI….-5
*UHLAN BUTE….-13
VISION DES CHAMPS….-14
*HAWKHILL….-16
CHEMISTRY MASTER….-17
PHANTOM PRINCE….-29
TUSCAN GOLD….-33

ADVICE – My top ne is double entered this afternoon but I’d be looking to play with rated horses 2 & 3, based purely on those * next to their names.

FONTWELL 4-15

NO NO BINGO….-22
AULD STHOCK….-29
STAY IN MY HEART….-31
SINBAD THE SAILOR….-33
CURTAIN RAZER….-33
*HENRYVILLE….-37
SAFFRON PRINCE….-40
COP DE GRACE….-40

ADVICE – You would need to be pretty desperate for a bet to get involved here!

Have a brilliant day and best of luck.

Kindest regards

Ron

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