All winter I have been advising, “do not bet midweek, only look at the racing of a weekend”. We have all endured a terrible winter, the rains all but washing racing off the map, even if they have opted to race on ground more suitable for ploughing and planting. Yesterday was the first day I can remember when I could sit down and say, “I love the racing today”. Proper racing ground, bigger fields and the sun shining and, what happens?….we nail, by “natural progression”, a top two 1-2 in our very first rated race of the day, that coughed up a 14/1 top rated winner and a 207/1 exacta, we then had a suggested straight win top rated hose up at 11/4 and would have seen three successive top rated winners had Hatters River jumped the last cleanly. Azure Fly seemed to enjoy the step up in trip, another top rated horse running second @ 5/1 plus, the suggested lay, Five In A Row, napped in the Racing Post, beaten.
Then came the best race of the day at Warwick and the profiling again proved it’s worth, Loughalder leading from pillar to post landing everyone a nice profit to take into Cheltenham week.
I said in January that if you punted horses midweek you would probably be looking at a break even situation playing the top rated horse and I’ll wager that comment is true. I will ask our member keeping the stats just how we sit at close of play last night. I mentioned to him in conversation yesterday that the racing we were working with during that afternoon was like someone having opened a window and letting some fresh air in!!
I have been head down battering the Cheltenham Special and tonight you will receive the first Newsletter (if you qualify), containing my race profiling for Tuesday. Close to 3000 words it is and it hopefully contains all we need for a good start to the Festival meeting.
If you have not yet got involved in the Clatterbridge/Cheltenham project but did enjoy reading the profiling for both the Imperial Cup and that marathon run at Warwick yesterday, which produced winners priced 7/1 and 5/1, feel free to visit the site to register.
It is going to be a funny old week for me. Tomorrow it’s hospital and GP surgery visits (I’ll miss the Supreme), Wednesday I’m free, Thursday I visit Clatterbridge to discuss the project and on Friday I’ll miss the whole lot as I’m heading off to a hospital near Chester with two of the OT’s from Clatterbridge, to see the Sensory garden they have at St Cecils and take back plans on how we can improve on it for the patients at Clatterbridge. A full and busy one.
It’s a full and busy day of racing today, too. Nine rated races from three meetings so best we crack on, eh!
PLUMPTON – Jump (Updated:10/03/2014 at 06:59:19)
Soft, Good to Soft in Places
(GoingStick: 5.1Hurdle 5.7 Chase on Monday at 06:45)
Dry overnight, leaf frost on grass this morning. A fine and
at times sunny day ahead max temp around +15C.
STRATFORD-ON-AVON – Jump (Updated:10/03/2014 at 06:46:06)
Hurdle course: Good to Soft, Soft in places
Chase course: Soft.
(GoingStick: 7.2 on Sunday at 07:00)
Two hurdle bends are at their maximum, (stable bend and two mile
start bend), extending hurdle race distances by about half a
furlong. (Chase bends as laid out will have little effect on
official distance). The town bend is the only split bend.
A dry and beautiful day but cooler: max 12C. Breezy.
TAUNTON – Jump (Updated:10/03/2014 at 06:31:43)
Soft, Good to Soft in places
(GoingStick: 4.8 on Monday at 06:00)
Hurdle bends moved since last meeting, along with chase bend
into home straight. Middle hurdle in back straight to be
omitted all hurdle races. Racing lines altered where
possible, however racing over previously used lines in
Pleasant day forecast 10c to 12C, sunny intervals, ground
*INDICATES HORSES HAVING WON PREVIOUSLY ON THE GOING AS CURRENTLY DESCRIBED ABOVE
THE LAST BRIDGE….+14
TIN POT MAN….-4
OVER MY HEAD….-6
BEST BOY BARNEY….-32
ADVICE – This meeting is probably the least “favourite” today….we know what they’ve suffered down there and I’d still be suspicious of the going but, we’ll see. October Rules or nowt for me.
ADVICE – A race I trust as far as I can throw it….no bet for me personally.
THE HAPPY WARRIOR….+8
*GOING NOWHERE FAST….-3
KEEP THE CASH….-12
UNTIL THE MAN….-40
KILL VAN KULL….-40
ADVICE – You wouldn’t want to be heavily involved here and for me personally, October Rules!
THINK ITS ALL OVER….-12
ADVICE – I’ll dutch rated horses 1 & 3, go 20/80 my top one and pop an exotics on.
*OUR PHYLLI VERA….+15
WAS MY VALENTINE….-36
ADVICE – Low grade stuff and I’ll work in my usual fashion playing those horses in my top six marked *.
*ACCORDING TO THEM….+11
*BEWARE CHALK PIT….+/-0
ADVICE – Nothing to see here…move on!….I’m just playing here as I am that 3-00!
*HOLD THE BUCKS….+1
JAJA DE JAU….-24
ADVICE – October Rules….top three….if i can summon the energy!
*THAT’S THE DEAL….-11
ADVICE – I may well just use my top rated only here….I’ll consider my options closer to off time!
UBALDO DES MENHIES….-12
OWEN NA VIEW….-25
ADVICE – Top three to October Rules and that’s me lot!
Have a brilliant day and best of luck if you get involved!