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Today’s Ratings and Advice 01/03/14

March already. Scary, isn’t it.

We start our months free trial today and a warm welcome to those that have stuck their heads around the corner to see what we do here. Over the course of the next 31 days you will think one of two things….I like this or, I don’t. It’s very much the same with everything in life. Some people think Ford make the best family cars, some think Toyota, some like red sauce, some like brown sauce and working with handicap figures is very much like that. They are not tips. What I provide you with every single day are the most accurate private figures you will find anywhere. What you do with them once you have them is entirely up to you. I will add text to each race I’m considering betting on that advises you how I myself is looking to play the race. It may be, when I get to the Exchanges, I cannot and so, I’ll look again at how best to maximise a profit.

I have a page on the website dedicated to how I approach a race, It breaks down a play so you can see for yourself the “innards”….if it’s to complicated for you, to long winded (it will be for most), then look at doing what the other members here do.

Some play the top rated horses only, some will just work with the top two, or three, some will work only with horses having achieved a + figure of 10 or more, and I know some play only horses rated -40 in handicaps of lower grade. Plenty use the figures for laying horses only. that is how I myself makes most of my own profit from them but, that requires you to be in a position, daily, to work in that way.

If you are a fun punter, looking to snaffle up a big pot every now and again, you’ll be playing multiples (I hate them myself….I’ll explain why at a later date), using what you perceive to be the best races on ratings, each day. You might decide the Ratings are not for you and choose to work only with the OF INTEREST horses….as good a way as any, I can assure you. Those horses are selected because in my opinion they are very much “of interest” from a punting perspective.

During March I will be expanding on the content of the website, introducing more explanations and methods used to play the Ratings. All are viable.

I have missed quite a few good paydays due to my own decision making and you will too, that’s the nature of gambling. What I do not do is beat myself up over them. You need to be able to treat a winning day in exactly the same way as a losing one…..and vice versa. You will have more losing days than winning ones…guaranteed. However, if you are set up right, have a betting bank of at least 50 points in place, that is money you can afford to lose, then long term, you will win.

Long term is the most important part of that last sentence. Betting on racehorses is gambling. Nobody will win everyday. The plain fact is, you will finish most days losing but, betting with a strategy and being able to handle a losing run (mental toughness is vital), you will come out ahead. The last flat racing season was a prime example of that. Betting the top rated, between May 1st and September 30th, to a level point stake, produced a profit of 350 points, to BFSP, before commissions but, your mental ability to stick it out would have been tested by a losing run of 32. If you were betting to £100 per point, at what point would you have blinked? That is why a betting bank is vital. It has to be money you can afford to give up and not worry if it doesn’t come back. The second you start using money that should be used for paying the bills, you are finished as a punter. A loss will crucify you.

This applies to any service you might choose to use. Nobody out there has the Holy Grail. It doesn’t exist, certainly not when it comes to betting. What we provide you with is a genuine desire to help you enjoy your horse racing and sports betting more than you have ever done. Nobody at this end is out to do anything other than help. Nobody here is looking to make a fortune out of charges applied to anything we do….it’s the absolute opposite actually. We tend to give lots away and increase on the packages we can provide to you. You will see this to be true as we go through the month of March.

John Standish will be back next week….now he is a tipster, and a good one. He did the sensible thing recently and took a couple of months off due to the awful weather which in turn produced awful racing. I had no such option….unfortunately. His expertise is flat racing anyway and he was kind of “cattle prodded” into coming on board during the NH season….he did ok though, even if he was at one point frustrated by a run of 2nd’s….we’ve all been there.

Cheltenham kick off a week Tuesday and today the first of the Post Racing Specials will be going out. It will contain three things:
The name of one horse I expect to win during the Festival to pay for everything.
The name of one horse you should be looking to obtain an ante-post price about for the 2015 Festival
An e.w. accumulator that is a bit of fun but, if we nail it, offers up a superb dividend.
Nothing Cheltenham related will be included in the FREE DAILY NEWSLETTER. That is because it’s, well, “special”. We are doing something with the monies raised from that (thanks to everyone that has got involved so far, we are close to £1k already!), and you can read about that below.

It’s a busy old day of racing so I’ll crack on now but if you have questions about anything I do, that are not answered on the website, please drop me a line.

ASSUMPTIONS

DONCASTER – Jump (Updated:01/03/2014 at 07:24:23)
Going
Good
(GoingStick: Chase 7.7 Hurdle 8.6 on Saturday at 07:00)

Rails
Where possible hurdle dividing rail has been moved to provide
fresh ground for this meeting.

Weather
Dry overnight
Forecast to remain dry Periods of bright Sun

Other
Clerk of the Course Roderick Duncan 07772 958685

KELSO – Jump (Updated:01/03/2014 at 06:39:35)
Going
Good to Soft, Soft in places
(GoingStick: 6.1 on Thursday at 11:45)

Rails
All bends have been moved out on to fresher ground for this
meeting, extending all races on hurdle course approx 10yds per
circuit further than official distances.

Weather
Dry overnight and remained above freezing (1C). Forecast is for a
mainly dry fine day, chance of a light shower mid-afternoon; max
temp 7C.

NEWBURY – Jump (Updated:28/02/2014 at 12:19:37)
Going
Heavy
(GoingStick: Hurdle 4.8 Chase 5.5 on Friday at 12:15)

Rails
Rails have been moved out since last meeting on both courses.

Weather
Last 24hrs 7.1mm(to 8.30 am)
Friday- Damp start, sunshine and showers later Max 5 min 0.
Saturday- Sunshine and showers Max 8.

*INDICATES HORSES HAVING WON PREVIOUSLY ON THE GOING AS CURRENTLY DESCRIBED ABOVE

NEWBURY 1-30

PILGREEN….+4
*MINELLA DEFINITELY….-6
CASTLETOWN….-11
KINGS BAYONET….-16
WHAT AN OSCAR….-19
RED DEVIL LADS….-20
BANGKOK PETE….-29
WESTAWAY….-40
TORERO….-40

ADVICE – The going here will be on the evil side of heavy. We have just one horse in here having won previously on slop and for that reason alone it’s a race I’d keep to minimal staking…if I play at all.

NEWBURY 2-05

*PROMISED WINGS….+3
*WHO OWNS ME….-1
FRIZZO….-11
BILLY TWYFORD….-18
BRACKLOON HIGH….-24
GARDE FOU….-38
GEORGIAN KING….-40

ADVICE – My top rated might have been promised them but they never arrived…slow as an old moose! Having said that, this will replicate a migration across the Serengeti and no result would surprise me. Top pair to October Rules if I loose my marbles and bet on it.

NEWBURY 3-15

*BODEGA….-6
TIQRIS….-16
*JUMPS ROAD….-16
KUDA HURAA….-21
SEVENTH SKY….-26
ROMAN FLIGHT….-40

ADVICE – This meeting today is one you genuinely have to treat with caution. I was listening to the guys on Timeform Radio yesterday and the way they described the ground then was “attritional” – code for “unraceable”….if you bet here today using any advice or information then you do so knowing in advance it’ll not be proper horse racing and betting on it is akin to leaping from a plane with a hole in your parachute.

NEWBURY 3-50

*ULCK DU LIN….+10
*MAJALA….+6
*ROYAL REBELLION….+/-0
*SHANGANI….-13
ELENIKA….-17
*DASHING GEORGE….-25
TARA ROSE….-30

ADVICE – Have you listened to the podcast? If my profiling is right and my figures are right, then we have a top rated winner.

DONCASTER 2-55

*SIMPLY NED….+11
*LUCKY LANDING….+10
*KINGS GREY….+9
*TURN OVER SIVOLA….+7
*SWIFT ARROW….+/-0
*LIDAR….-6
*SHADRACK….-8
*DOESLESSTHANME….-10
PRINCE OF DREAMS….-40

THREE TO DUTCH – SIMPLY NED, LUCKY LANDING, KINGS GREY
20/80 – SIMPLY NED
EXOTICS – SIMPLY NED, LUCKY LANDING, KINGS GREY
LAY – NONE

ADVICE – I am loving the racing here this afternoon. My figures here look solid and I’ll work with them as indicated.

DONCASTER 3-30

*GOLDEN CALL….+17
*MONBEG DUDE….+11
*MON PARRAIN….+10
*HARRY THE VIKING….+9
*NIGHT IN MILAN….+8
*GODSMEJUDGE….+7
COURT BY SURPRISE….+5
*WAYWARD PRINCE….-13
*STORM SURVIVOR….-17
MART LANE….-20
REAL MILAN….-29
RENARD….-40

THREE TO DUTCH – GOLDEN CALL, MONBEG DUDE, MON PARRAIN
20/80 – GOLDEN CALL
EXOTICS – GOLDEN CALL, MONBEG DUDE, MON PARRAIN
LAY – COURT BY SURPRISE

ADVICE – I said in the podcast, this is the best race of the day and it is…for me. Ultra competitive, it’ll be run at a true pace….racing pace….and I will simply rust my numbers are right and work with them. The podcast profiling suggested Godesmejudge and Harry The Viking will be competitive and hat whilst I see many positives regarding the tissue favourite, Court by Surprise he’s done all his winning on good to soft and it’ll be quicker today. A huge plus is the fact Emma Lavelle is 6-13 with ‘chasers here and has booked Gerraghty. if you follow me in laying the beast we need to be crossing the lot!

DONCASTER 4-05

*DROP OUT JOE….-20
AMPLEFORTH….-26
*DAWN COMMANDER….-27
*LOW GALES….-35
*HARTFORTH….-35
AWAYWITHTHEGREYS….-40

ADVICE – I will just work with my top rated to coppers.

KELSO 3-40

SHARNEY SIKE….-5
PEACHEY MOMENT….-8
ROCKING BLUES….-18
BLUESIDE BOY….-21
*FIDDLERS REEL….-23
MILANO MAGIC….-28
LADY OF VERONA….-32
COLLYNS AVENUE….-40
ACCORDION TO PADDY….-40

ADVICE – The ground is drying out here and it’ll be guesswork on that score. Only one has winning form on good to soft and he’s in my top six so, if you fancy working along those lines, be my guest.

KELSO 4-50

NOTONEBUTTWO….+15
MAGIC PRESENT….+9
*BOW SCHOOL….+8
*MASTER MURPHY….-9
CAUGHT IN THE ACT….-10
*FUNKY MUNKY….-13
MISTER JONES….-15
DOUBLE WHAMMY….-15
*SOLIS….-16
TOTAL ASSETS….-28
GOREY LANE….-34
SEE THE LEGEND….-39
REDPENDER….-40
AUBERGE….-40
AZERODEGREE….-40
MOONEYS COTTAGE….-40

ADVICE – Personally I’m scared of this one. My top rated surely need slow ground to produce his best and he’d be off my own betting slip. For me it would be a dutch rated horses 3, 4 and 6,…dutched. I’d be going 20/80 Bow School and looking at exotics but staking will be to October Rules, such is the low grade of this one.

Best of luck if you get involved this afternoon

Kindest regards

Ron

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