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Podcast disaster 28/03/14

Unfortunately, and I have no idea how this has happened, the podcast did not “save” and has disappeared into the ether! If it turns up we’ll get it onsite right away but right now, I’m stumped!

As promised please find below the text of my profiling, as promised:

CAMMIDGE TROPHY

Typical “start of season” race in that we’ll learn more by watching than we will get profit from punting it.

I’m only really interested in horses aged 5 or older. Seven of the last ten winners were in that age grouping but with two of the last three winners priced 22/1 and 12/1, you know it’s looking tricky.

We simply have no idea which stables are ahead of the game right now, which is why I use April for sending out “sighters” only.

The stats can only tell us so much.

The favourite has won or been placed in four of the last eight running’s and won two of the last five but three of the last five failed to hit the frame.

Three of the last five winners were making their seasonal debut and had not been running on the all weather.

Only one horse older than six has won in the last five seasons so I’ll look at those aged 5 & 6, making their seasonal debuts:

JACK DEXTER
TROPICS
DINKUM DIAMOND
ES QUE LOVE

The going is certainly looking set to be a factor and I’m seeing it has gone soft. Three of Jack Dexter’s last four wins have come at Doncaster on soft ground so, fair to say last seasons winner of this has everything spot on, if the going description I have is correct.

TROPICS would seem to appreciate slightly quicker ground at the very least.

All of DINKUM DIAMOND’s winning form has come over five furlongs on good to firm ground

ESQ QUE LOVE does all of his winning at this time of year…three of his four wins to date coming in April… but has yet to race on soft so I have no idea what he’ll make of it.

It has to be JACK DEXTER for me.

POST RACING PROFILE HORSE = JACK DEXTER

SPRING MILE

Four year olds have won eight of the last 10 of these and, in fact, four of the last five so, I’m looking to that age grouping for my winner.

We have just three protagonists to shortlist:

GWORN
FREEWHEEL
YOURARTISONFIRE

Three of the last four winners went off 10/1 or shorter and looking at past tissues, the winner was sitting comfortably in the front four in the market in five of the last seven Spring Miles.

GWORN trades 7/1 market leader right now and the only thing causing me a concern is the draw. He’s got the six box and the last two of these to be run on soft went to horses drawn 16 and 19.

I’m happy to look at a 20/80 though and we’ll see what the weather does.

POST RACING PROFILE HORSE = GWORN

THE LINCOLN

I see Roger Charlton was true to his word and pulled Captain Cat out the second the word soft appeared in the going description.

We have also lost Bronze Angel and Norse Blues so, down to 18 runners already.

I like LEVITATE and have done for a while but the stat that blows his chance out of the water is that which tells us no horse has won back to back Lincolns for more than 50 years. I expect him to run well, now he has his required ground but I couldn’t back him off that one stat alone.

He is also a little high in the weights now and I think they should have gone for the Listed race at 1-30.

From an age point of view there is not a lot in it…I wouldn’t want anything older than six running for me though.

That only rules out three:

SWEET LIGHTNING
SPA’S DANCER
TRES CORONAS

Four year olds had a stranglehold on the race until 2011

Knowing that four of the last five winners were making their seasonal debuts is another good stat to work with. Trainers getting one ready for this generally know what they are doing and how fit one is so, looking at those that qualify on the stats mentioned already we can look at:

TUILIS
MEZZOTINT
HI THERE
ONE WORD MORE
BALTY BOYS
GABRIAL’S KAKA
JACK’S REVENGE
OFF ART

That’s down to eight and much more manageable.

I’m now looking for soft ground winners in amongst them:

TULLIUS (22)
HI THERE (4)
ONE WORD MORE (10)
JACK’S REVENGE (11)

We have four left.

I have indicated the draw position of each and this is because only two of the last 10 winners were drawn lower than nine.

I’m dropping HI THERE from my lists and am happy to work with the trio left

TULLIUS
ONE WORD MORE
JACK’S REVENGE

Given it’s March I’d be bonkers not to be dutching so, I’ll play only to small stakes and set that up.

Looking for just one of that threesome to play a mad 20/80 on I’d be inclined to select ONE WORD MORE because I like the fact he’s carrying less than 9st 7lb – only one of the last 10 winners managed to do that – and his two previous trips to Doncaster yielded the form figures 3 ,2….so he likes the track.

His form figures on seasonal debut are 2, 1 and everything points to us getting a decent run for our money with track, draw and going more or less right.

POST RACING PROFILE HORSE = ONE WORD MORE

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