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Today’s Ratings and Advice 30/11/13

Close on a couple of occasions but no cigars yesterday. The Emma Lavelle stable is causing me real problems (and I imagine the official handicapper, too), and whatever was wrong with her horses last season has been well and truly cleared up. I guess we could all make a decision not to bet in these early season races her horses are running in? Particularly galling was seeing my top two rated horses come home 2nd 11/2 and 3rd 20/1 behind her easy winner Off The Ground, who was backed like defeat was completely out of the question….which it was.

She took the second of my rated races there too and again, the horse was very well backed to do so.

The big hurdle race at Newbury produced a cracking good finish but with three of the first five home priced 33/3, 66/1 and 20/1, I would have done well to have produced figures good enough to get much out of that one.

Cantlow….I did say he was a horse that was going to win a big one…and he beat another Emma Lavelle runner.

I do a top two dutch in the first of my rated races at Musselburgh and what happens? The third highest rated wins it at 20/1. I’ll be contacting James Ewart today to make sure Sleepy came home safe after his fall and report back to everyone once I know.

If anyone spotted Pass Muster coming, I salute you.

Today we have my favourite handicap, the Hennessy Gold Cup. I was in no fit state to do a podcast today and so unable to let you know of the profile this race throws up so, I’ll do it here, in writing.

Six and seven year olds dominate it, eight of the last 10 winners coming from that age grouping, five of the last 10 were aged seven. With 16 of the 21 runners fitting that profile it’s a fair bet it’ll be one of them first past the post again, eh….not a lot of help really.

Seven of the last 10 winners were in the first two in the market and five of the last 10 actually went off favourite so, it’s a race in which the market tells us a tale. Seven of the last 10 winners also carried 11st or more so weight carrying is no issue….in fact, it’s seems a requirement! The race generally goes to a progressive second season ‘chaser and the muddied waters are becoming very much clearer.

Three of the last five winners were making their seasonal debuts so if all the stats above hold water then we have two seven year olds sitting at the head of the market, Lord Windermere (11st 8lb) and Rocky Creek (11st 5lb). No stable has been in finer form at Newbury these past couple of days than that of Paul Nicholls and I’m very much favouring Rocky Creek from a profiling point of view. If the Ratings suggest likewise, I’ll be having a generous 20/80.

It is one of 10 rated races on a busy day with some great racing to enjoy.

From next week I will be starting to put up the lay and play of the day. The season so far has been very slow to come to hand and I’ve trusted horse racing as far as I can throw it but we should now see opportunities to get a bit more involved in certain horses.

Assumptions:

DONCASTER – Jump (Updated:29/11/2013 at 06:49:47)
Going
Chase Good
Hurdle Good, Good to Firm in Places
(GoingStick: Chase 7.5 Hurdle 8.0 on Friday at 06:15)

Weather
Tuesday Drizzle overnight 0.2mm
Wednesday Dry
Thursday Dry strong gusting winds overnight
Forecast to remain dry with strong winds

MUSSELBURGH – Jump (Updated:29/11/2013 at 06:56:19)
Going
Good, Good to Firm in places
(GoingStick: 7.3 on Friday at 06:45)

Rails
Hurdle and Chase using common bends

Weather
2mm Overnight Dry and breezy at 7am
Forecast – Rain Clearing by 7am Dry Windy Sunny Day
Wind easing later 7c

NEWBURY – Jump (Updated:29/11/2013 at 11:40:32)
Going
Hurdle: Good to Soft, Soft in places
Chase: Good to Soft, Good in places
No Stick reading, broken stick

Rails
The Bends are set out wide on both courses.
The bends and hurdles will be moved in overnight through the
meeting to provide fresh lines.

Weather
Forecast:
Friday-Cloudy start with a chance of showers or light rain
later. Max +9 Min +3.
Saturday- Cloudy Max +8.

* indicates horses having won previously on the going as currently described

NEWBURY 1-20

*VIOLIN DAVIS….+7
*HANDY ANDY….-1
RUBEN COTTER….-4
*HECTOR’S CHOICE….-6
*OPERA OG….-7
CARRIGMORNA KING….-17
MR GARDNER….-20
*WHAT A WARRIOR….-21
*ARTHUR’S PASS….-27
TRIPTICO….-28
*TATENEN….-30
*RENDL BEACH….-31
NO SECRETS….-32
*GUS MACRAE….-35
THE DRUIDS NEPHEW….-40
SIR DU BEARN….-40
KILCREA ASLA….-40
VALOROSO….-40
SOLIX….-40

THREE TO DUTCH – VIOLIN DAVIS, HANDY ANDY, HECTOR’S CHOICE
20/80 – VIOLIN DAVIS
EXOTICS – VIOLIN DAVIS, HANDY ANDY, HECTOR’S CHOICE
LAY – NONE

ADVICE – The cards here and at Newcastle are superb today and it’s a day of racing to more than make up for the rubbish we were served up midweek. I have five clear of the pack here and I’m pinning my hopes on the three highest rated horses marked * for my own plays. Handy Andy loves this track and must run a big race today. He is three from four over this course and even when he got beaten here he was third to Rolling Aces, who is a cracker and Merry King, who is one of the more fancied for the Hennessy this afternoon. Rock solid form and I’m more than half wishing he had topped my figures.

NEWBURY 1-50

*GIBB RIVER….+9
*NOTUS DE LA TOUR….+8
*BATONNIER….+8
*AEGEAN DAWN….-2
*IMPERIAL LEADER….-12
*MASTER OF THE GAME….-13
*PUNJABI….-15
*SHOTAVODKA….-17
VENDOR….-27
*AZURE FLY….-29
THE BEAR TRAP….-30
SAPHIR DU RHEU….-33
MISCHIEVOUS MILLY….-36
GASSIN GOLF….-36
*NATIVE GALLERY….-37
CITIZENSHIP….-40
DON’T BE LATE….-40

THREE TO DUTCH – GIBB RIVER, NOTUS DE LA TOUR, BATONNIER
20/80 – GIBB RIVER
EXOTICS – GIBB RIVER, NOTUS DE LA TOUR, BATONNIER
LAY – NONE

ADVICE – Ultra competitive and very much up in the air as to what could come through and win it. I have three with a + figure and they get my personal call to arms but they are dodgy to say the least. My top rated is having his second run since a lay off and off top weight has a bit to do, my second highest rated is brittle but if he’s fit and firing he’d skittle these on his old form and my third highest rated is in here after a 672 day lay off. Imperial Leader makes his handicap debut and off just five runs is open to plenty of improvement and likewise Mischievous Milly, who is stepping up in trip and again has just five runs on the board. I’ll stake lower than usual because of those two horses and if something comes back, I’ll be chuffed.

NEWBURY 3-00

*ROCKY CREEK….+16
*OPENING BATSMAN….+10
*LOCH BA….+9
*TRIOLO D’ALENE….+9
*HOUBLON DES OBEAUX….+1
*SAME DIFFERENCE….-1
*IMPERIAL COMMANDER….-2
*LORD WINDERMERE….-3
*THEATRE GUIDE….-4
*HIGHLAND LODGE….-5
*INVICTUS….-6
*SUPER DUTY….-6
PRINCE DE BEAUCHENE….-9
*HADRIAN’S APPROACH….-15
*CAPE TRIBULATION….-16
*CLOUDY TOO….-19
KATENKO….-22
*MERRY KING….-22
*TERMINAL….-27
OUR FATHER….-37
WHODOYOUTHINK….-40

THREE TO DUTCH – ROCKY CREEK, OPENING BATSMAN, LOCH BA
20/80 – ROCKY CREEK
EXOTICS – ROCKY CREEK, OPENING BATSMAN, LOCH BA
LAY – LORD WINDERMERE

ADVICE – Rocky Creek fits in every way. Stable in flying form, a profile to die for, ground ok (would have preferred it a tad softer) and if he stays the trip, a comment that applies to all bar Imperial Commander, he’ll be bang there. It’s the best handicap run all season and I’ll just trust my figures squeeze me a profit from it.

NEWBURY 3-35

*ULCK DU LIN….+11
*PARSNIP PETE….+10
*TETLAMI….+9
*CONSIGLIERE….-8
*FAIRY RATH….-11
ELENIKA….-12
FILBERT….-19
*ANAY TURGE….-25
GREYWELL BOY….-26
NEXT SENSATION….-32
RODY….-32

THREE TO DUTCH – ULCK DU LIN, PARSNIP PETE, TETLAMI
20/80 – ULCK DU LIN
EXOTICS – ULCK DU LIN, PARSNIP PETE, TETLAMI
LAY – NEXT SENSATION

ADVICE – My lay might be the death of me because he did me up like a kipper at Newcastle recently. He’s totally unexposed though and could be one of those that simply improve through the roof. if he is, I lose money on this race. I’m relying on Nicholls getting my top rated back to the form he showed last season. If he does, I’ve a shout. Is Tetlami, a Henderson inmate, fit enough to do himself justice first time up? We have no idea. Low staking race for me because of the ifs and buts.

NEWCASTLE 12-35

PRESENTED….-14
*DUKEOFCHESTERWOOD….-17
TWICE LUCKY….-17
BORIS THE BLADE….-22
NEWSPAGE….-29
QUINDER SPRING….-24
NOTONEBUTTOW….-28
SHOAL BAY DREAMER….-30
ALEXANDER OATS….-40
GOREY LANE….-40
BREEZE WITH EASE….-40
STAGECOACH JASPER….-40
SOUL ANGEL….-40
BARNEVELDER….-40

ADVICE – Only one of these has won on good ground and it sits second best on my numbers. October Rule race for me….top three dutch, 20/80 Dukeofchesterwood and exotics.

NEWCASTLE 1-35

*PALOS CONTI….+/0
*PEACHEY MOMENT….-6
*BADGER FOOT….-9
*RIQUEZ DANCER….-14
MOYODE WOOD….-15
SWING HARD….-17
SEE WHAT HAPPENS….-17
*SADDLE PACK….-25
ALFRED OATS….-40

ADVICE – Brian Ellison saddles two here and Moyode Wood has featured high on my figures for both previous runs this term. He has been seriously well backed on both runs to win, too but has not done the job. Today I have the stables other runner topping my figures….how much of a surprise would it be to see Moyode Wood go unbacked and win? I’ll play my top three dutched, 20/80 my top one and exotics but scary race this one.

NEWCASTLE 2-40

HEY BIG SPENDER….+12
*ULTIMATE….+6
*VINTAGE STAR….-2
*NETMINDER….-11
*MASTER OF THE HALL….-11
*BAILE ANRAI….-20
MISTER MARKER….-25
*MR MOSS….-35
TARQUINIUS….-40

ADVICE – Will first time blinkers make a difference to Baile Anrai? Trip and ground are right and going up in trip and back over fences, he’s my fly in the ointment. I’m happy to work with my top three though and we’ll see what happens. Dutch, 20/80 Hey Big Spender and exotics.

BANGOR 2-35

*HERONSHAW….+8
*ALDERLEY ROVER….+7
*HADA MEN….-8
WESTERN JO….-10
*WELLFORTH….-20
AMERICAN LIFE….-23
BEAUBOREEN….-40
HOWIZEE….-40
SHALONE….-40

ADVICE – Who would be a handicapper, eh! I cannot get proper handles on my top one or Western Jo so I will just see what happens to my top three dutch, 20/80 Heronshaw and exotics.

TOWCESTER 1-45

IFYOUTHINKSO….-15
*CHANGING LANES….-18
*KINGS APOLLO….-21
*EARCOMESTHEDREAM….-21
MISS MAYFAIR….-28
BURNTHILL….-37
OAK WOOD….-38
REGAL FLOW….-40
ADILI….-40
ALFIE ALEXANDER….-40
COWBRIDGE….-40

ADVICE – As is usual we have some ordinary stuff on a Saturday….and this meeting is it. I’m playing rated horses 2, 3 and 4 to my October Rules and if my top rated wins for those playing that horse, great.

TOWCESTER 2-15

*RED ADMIRABLE….+11
*DARKESTBEFOREDAWN….+9
*URCALIN….+9
IF IN DOUBT….-10
*RAY DIAMOND….-15
SAROQUE….-18
*ALL THAT REMAINS….-21
MINNEAPOLIS….-21
CHURCH FIELD….-31
TOUCH BACK….-36

ADVICE – The best race on this card today but it’s not saying a lot. Top three get the gig to October Rules.

Have a brilliant day and the very best of luck

Kindest regards

Ron

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