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Today’s Ratings and Advice 23/11/13

Yesterday we were back on the roundabouts….but believe me, my roundabouts were worse than yours. To compound the fact that three of my top rated horses finished 2nd @ 20/1, 8/1 and 15/2, I fell downstairs….twice. The first time I was lucky….I got to the bottom stair when my right leg simply refused to carry my weight and I hit the floor like a sack of spuds. Lesson learned, you would think. Nope. I’m having to lead with my “wrong leg” (now I fully understand why some horses are best going around a course in a certain direction!) and after we had finished the podcast I was plodding downstairs, got half way down when I lost concentration, led with my right and bang….down five stairs before I could grab the bannisters. A Youtube moment. Took me about 10 minutes to compose myself and release the leg, which I was now sitting on, and get out of the position I was in, which must have resembled some advanced Yoga pose.

The only thing I was remotely interested in after that was prepping today’s work so if anyone is awaiting replies to e-mails or Forum postings, my apologies but it’s very much a case of me getting done what I can right now.

I am so much looking forward to this afternoons racing. The handicaps look superbly competitive even if the supposed classier races are lacking in numbers and will produce form that is about as useful as a chocolate teapot. The Betfair Chase though is an absolute cracker. The Gold Cup itself will not be more competitive than this race and it’s definitely the cherry on today’s NH cake.

I had a few e-mails supporting my decision not to release “mother and father” and a few asking me to do so….I have again decided to keep it on file. I’ll post a piece up on the Forum once I’m fit again that will, hopefully, prove a point of reference in the future. A note to those simply playing the top rated horses though, and this came from a fellow member:

“I’m very pleased you decided not to post your ‘mother and father’ of Newsletter yesterday. Like you said; there would be little point.

It is very obvious the ‘unhappy’ people have little or no experience of gambling and statistics.

It’s probably worth pointing out that statistically if your strike rate is 17% (which most people seem to agree is what to expect from the top rated) that over a series of 1000 bets you should be prepared for a losing run of 37.

If this does happen and then you have a low priced winner, then a further long(ish) losing run – well, I would guess by then we would be looking at forum meltdown”

So, you now have a clearer idea of what you are going to, at perhaps several points, deal with. I say again, if losing runs make you blink, quit now because seriously, they will happen, especially punting one horse blind in every rated race. You have to remember, what you receive each day are not “tips” but handicap ratings and whilst they are the most accurate around, the top rated will produce more losers than winners….by a wide margin….the idea is though that the smaller percentage of winners covers those losers and creates those profits but you have to set out your stall for the long haul because the profit made during the summer did not happen within the first three weeks of the season, it took five months. The law of averages dictates that one season, no top rated winners will win. Are you ready for that?

I lost money on the first race at Haydock yesterday but was deliriously ecstatic with my figures.

HAYDOCK 12-50

FIGHTER JET….+3 – 2ND 20/1
*SCOTS GAELIC….+1
CYRIEN STAR….-6 – WON 4/1
*ABRUZZI….-12 – 3RD 9/1
REVOCATION….-13 – 5TH 14/1
SHOULDAVBOUGHTGOLD….-21
*MISSION COMPLETE….-25
*OUR JOEY….-30
TALKONTHESTREET….-39
MILANO MAGIC….-40
STORM ALERT….-40
BORDER PHOENIX….-40
BEYEH….-40

THREE TO DUTCH – FIGHTER JET, SCOTS GAELIC, ABRUZZI
20/80 – SCOTS GAELIC
EXOTICS – FIGHTER JET, SCOTS GAELIC, ABRUZZI
LAY – NONE

ADVICE – My top rated ideally wants quicker ground and with only three in this field having won previously over three miles it’s going to be interesting to see how many get home on the soft ground. I’ll play as indicated to lowish staking.

RESULT – First three home in my top four rated, four of the first five home in my top five rated….not a penny of profit back but nothing at all wrong with the numbers.

We were given an inaccurate going description by the CoC but it would have made only a negligible difference. We had no rain at all overnight prior to racing and yet, after race 2, they changed the going to “soft all over”. When you are working six hours ahead of the off time of the first race, that helps nobody betting on horses.

Hopefully we get what we have been told we will get and nail a bit of profit.

ASSUMPTIONS:
ASCOT – Jump (Updated:23/11/2013 at 07:03:28)
Going
Good to Soft
(GoingStick: Chase 7.2, Hurdle 7.5 on Friday at 11:00)

Weather
Dry overnight to 7am Saturday. Expected to remain dry with
sunny spells.

HAYDOCK PARK – Jump (Updated:23/11/2013 at 07:06:33)
Going
Soft
(GoingStick: Chase 5.2; Hurdle 4.6 on Saturday at 06:30)

Rails
Chases to be run on the Inner Flat Course.
The distance of Chases increases by 1/2 furlong per circuit,
compared to normal configuration.
Hurdles to be run on what is normally the Chase Course.

Weather
17mm of rain in the week. Slight frost overnight. Forecast dry
and bright after misty start.

HUNTINGDON – Jump (Updated:23/11/2013 at 06:39:07)
Going
Soft
(GoingStick: C – 6.0, H – 6.7 on Friday at 07:30)

Weather
0.8mm rain Mon, 5mm Wed, a couple of light, immeasurable showers
on Thurs, dry overnight.
Forecast: Dry and cold. Mostly cloudy but some periods of
sunshine possible.

* indicates horses having won previously on the going as currently described

HAYDOCK 12-10

TIDAL WAY….+5
MOUJIK BORGET….+2
*GOLDEN HOOF….-1
QUICK DECISSON….-11
*UBALDO DES MENHIES….-13
SMADYNIUM….-17
DEEPSAND….-20
*HAWKHILL….-25
HONOUR SYSTEM….-28
CAPTAIN BROWN….-37
BOB’S WORLD….-40
RULER OF ALL….-40
SUDDEN LIGHT….-40

THREE TO DUTCH – TIDAL WAY, GOLDEN HOOF, UBALDO DES MENHIES
20/80 – GOLDEN HOOF
EXOTICS – TIDAL WAY, GOLDEN HOOF, UBALDO DES MENHIES
LAY – NONE

ADVICE – Normally Honour System would be a suggested lay but he comes here having had four runs, having won by 10 lengths last time out, has never raced on soft under this code and makes his handicap debut today. You lay such critters at your peril. My top rated would possibly prefer it to dry out a tad but has placed on his only start on soft to date and so, I’ll fling it into my dutch with two of the three in this race that have won previously on soft, and sit inside my top six rated.

HAYDOCK 1-15

*LIVELY BARON….+12
*GORGEHOUS LLIEGE….+10
*ELEAZAR….+9
*NUTS N BOLTS….+1
*DUSKY BOB….-5
ACE HIGH….-12
*JAUNTY JOURNEY….-13
*CHAC DU CADRAN….-18
*OUR ISLAND….-25
*INCENTIVISE….-35
RED ROCCO….-40
MISTER PHILSON….-40

THRTEE TO DUTCH – LIVELY BARON, GORGEHOUS LLIEGE, ELEAZAR
20/80 – LIVELY BARON
EXOTICS – LIVELY BARON, GORGEHOUS LLIEGE, ELEAZAR
LAY – NONE

ADVICE – Top three clear on my figures, no going issues, my top rated a previous course winner, a winner over the trip, and i’ll happily work with them.

HAYDOCK 1-50

*CLONDAW KAEMPFER….+13
*SPECIAL CATCH….-3
MATTHEW RILEY….-6
*MORE OF THAT….-13
MCMURROUGH….-13
*PARTY ROCK….-18
*HOME RUN….-19
*TRUCKING ALONG….-22
ZUIDER ZEE….-28
*VASCO D’YCY….-35
BLUE FASHION….-36
EDGARDO SOL….-40

THREE TO DUTCH – CLONDAW KAEMPFER, SPECIAL CATCH, MORE OF THAT
20/80 – CLONDAW KAEMPFER
EXOTICS – CLONDAW KAEMPFER, SPECIAL CATCH, MORE OF THAT
LAY – NONE

ADVICE – Three in my top four happy with the ground, including the wholly unexposed tissue favourite More Of That and I believe the winner will come from that trio….hopefully my top rated, for everyones sake!

HAYDOCK 2-25

*GEVREY CHAMBERTIN….+11
*MONETARY FUND….+11
*RESTLESS HARRY….+11
TWO ROCKERS….+8
*TRUSTAN TIMES….+8
*LIE FORRIT….+/-0
*SIXTY SOMETHING….-4
*ELY BROWN….-14
*MASTER OF THE SEA….-17
*GULLINBURSTI….-21
*THE KNOXS….-23
NIGHT IN MILAN….-27
CROWNING JEWEL….-31
UTOPIE DES BORDES….-36
LOVCEN….-40
KNOCK A HAND….-40
ALFIE SHERRIN….-40

THREE TO DUTCH – GEVREY CHAMBERTIN, TRUSTAN TIMES, LIE FORRIT
20/80 – GEVREY CHAMBERTIN
EXOTICS – GEVREY CHAMBERTIN, TRUSTAN TIMES, LIE FORRIT
LAY – NONE

ADVICE – The winner could quite easily be sitting outside my top six here. This is the best race of the day for me personally and I’m looking forward to it very much. I’ve neglected my second and third highest rated horse because Monetary Fund has shown a marked preference for going right handed (0-9 going left handed) and Restless Harry looks a shadow of his former self (last of 20 on seasonal debut beaten a mile). I’m happy with my top rated, like the look of Two Rockers but he may need it slower and so I’ll have the winner of this race last year, tristan Times in my dutch alongside Lie Forrit who, if Lucinda Russell has him back to his best and they let him dictate from the off, could run a biggun.

HAYDOCK 3-35

NOBLE LEGEND….+13
*SYDNEY PAGET….+11
*RELAX….+9
*MAC AEDA….+9
*SILVER BY NATURE….+8
*PROBLEMA TIC….+8
*MR MOONSHINE….-4
*PIGEON ISLAND….-13
*THE RAINBOW HUNTER….-15
GAS LINE BOY….-19
*QUINCY DES PICTONS….-35
SAINT ARE….-40

THREE TO DUTCH – NOBLE LEGEND, SYDNEY PAGET, RELAX
20/80 – NOBLE LEGEND
EXOTICS – NOBLE LEGEND, SYDNEY PAGET, RELAX
LAY – GAS LINE BOY

ADVICE – Another cracker….those going to Haydock today have a feast of racing on show. I’m jealous! My top rated has yet to win on soft (only one run on it to date, unplaced), but has won on heavy and good to soft plus, is unbeaten here at Haydock…two trips, bacon taken home both times. I’ll trust my top three but do expect my fourth best to run a big race off bottom weight, too.

ASCOT 1-30

*FLORAFEARN….+12
*UPBEAT COBBLER….+8
*SCHOLASTICA….+5
TOP TOTTI….+3
MISTRAL REINE….-10
*LADY KATHLEEN….-22
*LIGHTS OF BROADWAY….-35
*VA’VITE….-35
CHILWORTH SCREAMER….-40
VENCEREMOS….-40
FASHION FAUX PAS….-40

THREE TO DUTCH – FLORAFEARN, UPBEAT COBBLER, SCHOLASTICA
20/80 – FLORAFEARN
EXOTICS – FLORAFEARN, UPBEAT COBBLER, SCHOLASTICA
LAY – NONE

ADVICE – Given the form of the yard I imagine everyone was hoping my second highest rated would be top! Come 1-35pm that may well be the case but I have what I have and will work as the runes suggest.

ASCOT 3-15

*DRUMSHAMBO….+8
*KING EDMUND….+8
*KIE….-2
*VIVA COLONIA….-14
LANCETTO….-14
*ALASI….-22
*SAVED BY JOHN….-32

ADVICE – Just a top two dutch, a straight win my top one and an exotic. If Drumshambo turns up here in the same form he did recently then he’ll be tough to beat, despite the revised weights with Lancetto.

HUNTINGDON 1-40

*ARKOSE….+1
*BALLYVONEEN….-1
*SOUDAIN….-1
*DESPERATE DEX….-2
*ONE MORE DINAR….-5
*BALLY SANDS….-11
*SMART EXIT….-12
RHUM….-18

THREE TO DUTCH – ARKOSE, BALLYVONEEN, SOUDAIN
20/80 – ARKOSE
EXOTICS – ARKOSE, BALLYVONNEN, SOUDAIN
LAY – NONE

ADVICE – Tight as a drum this one. Good competitive little race though and I’m happy to work as indicated.

HUNTINGDON 2-50

*ELEGANT OLIVE….-3
GO AMWELL….-6
ARCTIC NIGHT….-9
*ACOSTA….-9
ICONIC ROSE….-34
BRAVO RIQUET….-36
CUTE COURT….-40
CRUSHED ICE….-40
ALMUTAHAM….-40

ADVICE – The worst race of the day but it will be interesting to see if Go Amwell can add to his five CD wins. My top rated likes it here too and has winning form on soft so, I’ll work with my top three to October Rules….top three dutch, 20/80 my top one and exotics but to my lowest staking.

OF INTEREST

ZARKANDAR (Ascot 2-40) – straight win
BRASSBOUND (Huntingdon 1-10) – 20/80
MY NOSY ROSY (Huntingdon 2-15) – 20/80

Have a great day and best of luck if you are getting involved

Kindest regards

Ron

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