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Today’s Ratings and Advice 16/11/13

Anay Turge was a very nice 9/1 start to our Cheltenham Open meeting and with Thomas Crapper landing my dutch when winning the only other rated race there at 16/1, I was extremely pleased with how the figures performed.

Just to let you know we are off to a Christening down Bewdley way and it takes place at noon on Sunday so, we are away for an overnighter. This means the figures may be a little late coming out tomorrow….but they will come out!

I thoroughly enjoyed doing the podcast yesterday and I hope everyone has had a chance to listen to it. Sean has made mention of one in both his piece on the website and in the podcast, that it’s trainer believes will run a huge race at a huge price. I make mention of the fact that if I ever find one in my race profiling that my figures also suggest could be winning then it’s time to have a bet.

It’s a busy day so let’s get to work.

ASSUMPTIONS:

CHELTENHAM – Jump (Updated:16/11/2013 at 06:32:40)
Going
Good, good to soft in places.
(GoingStick: 7.2 on Friday at 11:00)

Weather
Cloudy but dry.

UTTOXETER – Jump (Updated:16/11/2013 at 07:34:38)
Going
Chase – SOFT
Hurdle – SOFT – Good to Soft in places
Chute (2m races only) – Heavy
(GoingStick: Ch – 5.8; Hur – 6.6 on Saturday at 06:45)

Rails
Hurdles moved out on to fresher ground. Divided bends
Chute hurdle omitted in 2m hurdle race

Weather
9mm rain Monday
Dry Tuesday and Wednesday
2mm rain Thursday
Dry Friday
Overcast and drizzly at present but should dry and brighten up

Other
For stabling and overnight staff accommodation please e-mail
stabling@uttoxeter-racecourse.co.uk
For information regarding Going/Weather please contact Clerk of
the Course – Charlie Moore – 07764 255500

WETHERBY – Jump (Updated:16/11/2013 at 07:36:31)
Going
Good to Soft
(GoingStick: not available on Thursday at 00:00)

Weather
7mm rain on Saturday 9th November. Damp day on Monday,
putting down 2mm in total. Tuesday & Wednesday cool, dry and
sunny. 1mm shower on Wednesday night, then cool, dry and
very windy on Thursday. Dry and calm on Friday, with sunny
spells.
Dry Overnight Friday / Saturday. Forecast for a dry day
today, with temps 10C.

* indicates horses having won previously on the going as currently described

CHELTENHAM 1-50

*SPRING HEELED….+10
*BURTON PORT….+1
*MONBEG DUDE….-5
*BRADLEY….-7
*BALLYBOUGH GORTA….-8
*QUENTIN COLLONGES….-8
*GODSMEJUDGE….-14
GOULANES….-18
*ON TREND….-21
TOUR DES CHAMPS….-32
*KNOCKARA BEAU….-35
ALVARADO….-40
BECAUSEICOULDNTSEE….-40

THREE TO DUTCH – SPRING HEELED, MONBEG DUDE, BRADLEY
20/80 – SPRING HEELED
EXOTICS – SPRING HEELED, MONBEG DUDE, BRADLEY
LAY – GOULANES

ADVICE – Happy enough with my figures here and if Burton Port is still as good as I once thought he was then I’ll look a muppet for leaving him out. I’ll work as I have suggested and hopefully draw something from this.

CHELTENHAM 2-30

*FINIAN’S RAINBOW….+11
*RAJDHANI EXPRESS….+9
*WISHFUL THINKING….+8
*JOHNS SPIRIT….+4
*ASTRACAD….+3
*WOOLCOMBE FOLLY….+1
GIFT OF DGAB….+/-0
*NADIYA DE LA VEGA….-4
*CHAMPION COURT….-15
*ATTAGLANCE….-17
*KUMBESHWAR….-24
BALLYNAGOUR….-25
VINO GRIEGO….-33
*CONQUISTO….-33
*BATTLE GROUP….-36
CARRICKBOY….-40
COLOUR SQUADRON….-40
EASTER METEOR….-40
HIDDEN CYCLONE….-40

THREE TO DUTCH – FINIAN’S RAINBOW, RAJDHANI EXPRESS, WISHFUL THINKING
20/80 – FINIAN’S RAINBOW
EXOTICS – FINIAN’S RAINBOW, RAJDHANI EXPRESS, WISHFUL THINKING
LAY – CHAMPION COURT

ADVICE – If my figures are right they blow my profiling out of the water. As was mentioned in the podcast if Finian’s Rainbow is back to anything like his best he’d beat these hollow. I’m working as I’ve outlined above because I’m already on Ballynagour at fancy prices (I fear it may not be soft enough for him), and I’ll look for a bookmakers to stop at on my way south so that I can watch what should be a great race.

CHELTENHAM 3-00

*CROSS KENNON….+8
*BALLY LEGEND….+8
*GAUVAIN….+5
*SOUTHFIELD THEATRE….+5
*SUNNYHILLBOY….+4
*CLOSE HOUSE….-9
SALUBRIOUS….-11
*MONETARY FUND….-13
*RECESSION PROOF….-14
*VICTRIX GALE….-15
*CINEVATOR….-17
*ARALDUR….-24
*SILVER EAGLE….-26
*PINEAU DE RE….-26
*RED NOT BLUE….-27
*GREYFRIARS DRUMMER….-27
EDMUND KEAN….-30
LAMB OR COD….-40
RETURN SPRING….-40

THREE TO DUTCH – CROSS KENNON, BALLY LEGEND, GAUVAIN
20/80 – CROSS KENNON
EXOTICS – CROSS KENNON, BALLY LEGEND, GAUVAIN
LAY – SILVER EAGLE

ADVICE – As competitive a hurdle race as we’ll see. I’ve got horses down the bottom of my ratings that could well win this but I have what I have and will trust the runes.

WETHERBY 1-30

*OUTLAW TORN….-8
*DANCEINTOTHELIGHT….-10
*LOOKOUT MOUNTAIN….-15
*WOLF SHIELD….-18
FORTY CROWN….-22
KENT STREET….-27
FLICKA WILLIAMS….-28
JOSEPH MERCER….-29
WAYWARD GLANCE….-40
AMERICAN LIFE….-40
MADAM LILIBET….-40

ADVICE – It’s simply October Rules or nowt for me personally. Not a race I would want to be involved in to heavily.

WETHERBY 2-05

*DENALI HIGHWAY….+10
*GROUSE LODGE….+10
NO PLANNING….-3
*FRANK THE SLINK….-3
ROYAL SIM….-8
SCOTSWELL….-17

ADVICE – If the winner sits outside my top two I’ll be poorer. Straight win my top one and an exotic the top pair.

WETHERBY 2-40

*ACORDINGTOSCRIPT….+7
SPITFIRE ACE….+1
TRESOR DE L’ISLE….-4
*MIDNIGHT CHARMER….-5
TWICE LUCKY….-9
GOODTOKNOW….-17
VARDAS SUPREME….-20
BADGER FOOT….-26

ADVICE – This is already filed under “dodgy”. Another I’m playing purely to October Rules.

WETHERBY 3-15

*HARTSIDE….+14
*LIGHTENING ROD….+9
*MOJOLIKA….-5
LIFETIME….-11
ZAFRANAGAR….-16
*DOYNOSAUR….-22
*ZAPLAMATION….-22
MITCHELL’S WAY….-24
FAIR TRADE….-30
GOLDEN FUTURE….-36
DUMBARTON….-37
THE BULL HAYES….-40
PERTUIS….-40

THREE TO DUTCH – HARTSIDE, LIGHTENING ROD, MOJOLIKA
20/80 – HARTSIDE
EXOTICS – HARTSIDE, LIGHTENING ROD, MOJOLIKA
LAY – NONE

ADVICE – A good competitive race and I’ll work as my numbers are telling me.

UTTOXETER 2-15

THE JUGOPOLIST….+11
CTAPPERS….+6
*WELLFORTH….+1
*ALBORZ….-8
TOKYO JAVILEX….-15
*HEAVENSTOWN….-19
DI KAPRIO….-24
RED ADMIRABLE….-29
*KILFLORA….-32
I KNOW THE CODE….-33
THE ROAD AHEAD….-37
BASFORD BOB….-40
TAKE THE MICK….-40
FINDING YOUR FEET….-40
JOHNNY’S LEGACY….-40

ADVICE – Trip and ground are a mystery for most of these and i’m afraid it’a another October Rules or diddly race for me personally.

UTTOXETER 2-50

*LEAN BURN….+1
PAGHAM BELLE….-5
WHISPERING HARRY….-12
*LOGICAL APPROACH….-25
PRINCE FREDDIE….-25
ON THE RECORD….-36
POETIC POWER….-40
ADILI….-40
ANCIENT TIMES….-40
ROSE RED….-40

ADVICE – The worst race of the day? Top three to those October Rules again I’m afraid.

UTTOXETER 3-25

PENSNETT BAY….+13
*DANCING ART….+8
*DUKE OF MONMOUTH….-2
*STOW….-10
*HOLLINS….-21
*RINGA BAY….-25
*THE THIRSTY BRICKY….-25

ADVICE – The only horse in this race without winning form on soft is….my top rated. The chase course is heavy in places and if it’s “very soft” then my top rated should be fine. Top two for a dutch, a 20/80 DANCING ART and an exotic.

OF INTEREST

SUPREME BAILERINA (Cheltenham 4-05) – 20/80
SUPREME ASSET (Wetherby) – straight win
SIR MANGAN (Wetherby 3-50) – straight win
SPECIAL ACCOUNT (Uttoxeter 1-05) – 20/80
CLANCY’S CROSS (Uttoxeter 4-00) – straight win

THE E.W. DOUBLE

SPECIAL ACCOUNT (Uttoxeter 1-05)
SUPREME BAILERINA (Cheltenham 4-05)

Have a great day and best of luck if you are punting

Kindest regards

Ron

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