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Today’s Ratings and Advice 12/11/13

I thought that went quite well yesterday. Three top rated winners from four races would seem to indicate things are now “right” and with seven of the last 20 top rated (since Saturday), obliging, giving us a 35% strike rate over that period I can now breathe easy.

I responded to an e-mail from a member yesterday who was not so much expressing concern at the start we had made but asking if punting the top rated horse was actually the right thing to be doing to make profit. I explained that both history and last summer would suggest it was and that he should consider halving his unit stake until he felt comfortable. I also explained to him what I believed had actually happened and it followed an interview with Donald McCain in the Racing Post. He admitted to their reporter that he had deliberately started his horses a week later that usual because he felt this was going to be a long season (something I had alluded to several times myself) and that explains why the first week of November was a trial. It appears to me that not only Mr McCain has been hanging fire so far.

I also had a cracking good read sent to me regarding my figures (thanks, Mike…response to follow), and what I should be looking to do with them following the information I received about someone offering them up on the Betfair Forum. I’ll read it again this morning and pluck out those bits and pieces requiring deeper thought and maybe we could use this on the Forum, to gauge opinion.

Speaking of the forum I was supposed to get on there last night but was in my GP’s surgery from just before 7-00pm until just before 8-00pm and will be having an x-ray on my sacroiliac this morning. I thought getting fit was a wonderful idea….probably was….but you do get to an age when you should lose your competitive streak and accept the body just cannot cope with what it did 30 years ago.

I will be on the Forum this afternoon.

Three meetings today and we’ll see if we can keep this ball rolling.

ASSUMPTIONS:

HUNTINGDON – Jump (Updated:12/11/2013 at 06:50:05)
Going
Hurdle: Soft, Heavy in places
Chase; Soft
(GoingStick: C – 6.3, H 5.6 on Monday at 07:30)

Weather
1.2mm steady drizzle through Monday, 3.6mm rain so far Tuesday
morning.
Forecast: Rain clearing mid-morning for a mostly cloudy day with
temperature highs of around 11c.

LINGFIELD PARK – Jump (Updated:11/11/2013 at 08:08:24)
Going
Steeple Chase Course: Heavy
AWT: Standard
(GoingStick: 5.6 on Monday at 08:00)

Weather
Friday November 8th – 4.8mm rain.
Saturday November 9th – 11.0mm rain
Sunday November 10th – 1.2mm rain
Forecast:
Monday – Rain (up to 7mm), 12C/9C
Tuesday – Early rain clearing to leave a cloudy day, 11C

Inspections
PLEASE NOTE THE HURDLE RACES HAVE BEEN ABANDONED DUE
TO WATERLOGGING. An additional Steeple Chase and AWT NHF
race have been added to the programme in their place.

Other
Due to the recent wet weather we have been unable to cut the
track and consequently the grass is longer than is normal.
The AWT will be power harrowed for the National Hunt Flat
races.

SEDGEFIELD – Jump (Updated:11/11/2013 at 08:22:38)
Going
Chase – SOFT – GOOD to SOFT in places
Hurdle – GOOD to SOFT – SOFT in places
(GoingStick: Ch 6.4; Hur – 7.3 on Monday at 07:30)

Rails
Divided Bends moved out to provide fresher ground. Hurdles on
outside.

Weather
Showers Friday night
Dry and bright Saturday and Sunday
Frost early Sunday night then rain
4mm (at 7am) since early hours which course has takem well
Should brighten up but some forecast rain tonight (1-3mm)
Then mainly dry tomorrow

* indicates horses having won previously on the going as currently described

HUNTINGDON 12-40

*BRASS MONKEY….+2
TIGRESSE BLEUE….+/-0
COMMITMENT….-11
*LISDONAGH HOUSE….-21
*ZELOS DIKTATOR….-25
OLD WAY….-30
JUST CLOUDY….-31
MARBLE WALK….-33
ADMIRAL BOOM….-40
XENAPHON….-40
ROYAL DEFENCE….-40

ADVICE – A chin rubber. My top one is in form, goes on the ground, trades tissue favourite but….in all previous attempts going right-handed he has not even managed to place. The other pair having won previously on soft look exposed and vulnerable to a horse such as Commitment, who makes his handicap debut for a trainer more than capable. A race I will just watch.

HUNTINGDON 2-10

*SALMANAZAR….+9
*BROADWAY BUFFALO….+9
*HIDDEN IDENTITY….+8
*VULCANITE….-1
ZUIDER ZEE….-12
BAILE ANRAI….-35
MAN OF LEISURE….-40

ADVICE – I’m hoping the winner is in my top two because they will represent my dutch. I’ll have a small 20/80 Salmanazar and an exotic but all the time looking over my shoulder at Zuider Zee who is completely unexposed and may have been simply lobbed in off this mark.

LINGFIELD 3-00

*TOPAZE COLLONGES….+9
CHRISTOPHER WREN….-9
BE ALL MAN….-16
CHESTNUT BEN….-27
TAKEROC….-40
MAM RATAGAN….-40

ADVICE – I took one look at the situation here regarding the state of the ground and have decided I’ll not be betting here. Read for your self above how bad things are. They have opted to abandon all hurdle races because the ground is unsafe and been unable to cut the grass because the tractor would have probably sunk.

LINGFIELD 3-30

*GORING TWO….+9
*SOMERBY….+8
*SHE’S HUMBLE….-10
RUSTY NAIL….-32
SEVENTH HUSSAR….-36
ACCORDING TO THEM….-36
TCHANG GOON….-40
OFFICIALLY MODERN….-40

SEDGEFIELD 1-50

OH RIGHT….+8
*SAMBELUCKY….+5
*BOCAMIX….-9
*PISTOL BASC….-10
OVER AND ABOVE….-19
CHICAGO OUTFIT….-20
RAVENSBILL….-28
FOZY MOSS….-37

ADVICE – I’m just dutching rated horses 2 & 3, going 20/80 Sambelucky and having a pop at the exotic but, my staking will be minimal. My top rated is about as consistent as a politician and if it wins then well done those simply playing that horse!

SEDGEFIELD 2-50

ONE FOR HARRY….+9
SURF AND TURF….+9
*ANOTHER DIMENSION….+8
*SAM LORD….-1
*WALTZ DARLING….-2
*CALL IT ON….-9
CAERLAVEROCK….-21
MARY MILAN….-31
EMBSAY CRAG….-33
BIG SOUND….-33
TOTAL ASSETS….-40

THREE TO DUTCH – ONE FOR HARRY, SURF AND TURF, ANOTHER DIMENSION
20/80 – ONE FOR HARRY
EXOTICS – ONE FOR HARRY, SURF AND TURF, ANOTHER DIMENSION
LAY – NONE

ADVICE – I hate races in which I can only find reasons for horses not winning, and that is very much the case here. The ground might not be slow enough for my top one, it might be to slow for my second highest rated, my third best is here off the back of an absence Lord Lucan would be proud of and my fourth best, whilst obviously having a passion for this place (three times a course winner), might require oxygen coming off the home bend. I’ll play as indicated but only to my October Rules levels of staking.

SEDGEFIELD 3-20

SILVER ROQUE….+20
*FINGER ONTHE PULSE….+19
*DIVERS….+11
TAHITI PEARL….-1
STAGECOACH PEARL….-12
RISKIER….-17
*SUBLIME TALENT….-18
GRANVILLE ISLAND….-18

ADVICE – I’m again just dutching my top two, 20/80 Silver Roque and an exotic but it will be interesting to see what Donal Mccain does with Divers, who is a seriously good horse at his best.

SEDGEFIELD 3-50

*IKTIVIEW….+4
*AMIR PASHA….-5
BROCTUNE PAPA GIO….-17
DYNAMIC DRIVE….-26
LYSINO….-31
KATHLATINO….-33
FREEDOM FLYING….-35
KAYALAR….-37
OPERATEUR….-40
BERTIELICIOUS….-40
TIM’S APPROACH….-40
MONTHLY MEDAL….-40
AW RIPE CHINA….-40
QUEEN OF EPIRUS….-40

ADVICE – A wonderful way to finish off the afternoon….not. This is chic full of moose, wildebeest and camel. The owners of my bottom six rated, I salute you. Top three to nowt but October rules…dutch, 20/80 my top one and exotics but to my lowest staking.

OF INTEREST

SUBURBAN BAY (Huntingdon 1-10) – straight win
DEFINITE RUBY (Huntingdon 3-10) – straight win
KIBO (Huntingdon 3-40) – 20/80

THE E.W. DOUBLE

HALO MOON (Sedgefield 1-20)
SUBURBAN BAY (Huntingdon 1-10)

Have a great day and the very best of luck if you get involved.

Kindest regards

Ron

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