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Today’s Ratings and Advice 09/11/13

The cats have gone into hiding, there is much gnashing of teeth, and on Monday morning I will be giving you my own personal take on the first week of November. I am thinking….in fact I know….that the trends seem to indicate we have started at least a week to soon and next November the first day of the season will be Badger Ale day at Wincanton…today.

I saw some results yesterday that defied belief. Long standing maidens finding form previously they were incapable of, one going off 3/1CF….I will never find winners like that, working as I do. Not only did that horse win but it won by 28 lengths….a 31 race maiden….I knew that 1-10 was a bad race but I had no idea just how bad.

I winced last night, too, when I read of Tony Davidson’s PC issues because that has also been happening to me. Has anyone else out there been finding Safari crashing when they tried to move to another site or page? Yesterday was ridiculous and it has stopped me getting the podcast out on time. I will be trying again this morning so keep checking the website to see if it is up. This issue seems to have coincided with the launch of Apple’s new OS, Mavericks….are they trying to force people to upgrade? I run Parallels on my machine and upgrading the OS would mean I also have to upgrade several other bits of software which would cost me a few bob. Swines.

It’s a busy day of racing so I’ll kick off with a bit of a bonus. I have rated the November Handicap for you and if you do get a chance to listen to the podcast (fingers crossed), I profiled this race and you will see (hear), we actually have a potential play.

DONCASTER 3-35

RHOMBUS….+14
*AIKEN….+13
§*NICHOLASCOPERNICUS….+10
*BOHEMIAN RHAPSODY….+10
§*RIO’S ROSANNA….+8
§*SHREWD….+1
*NEARLY CAUGHT….+/-0
*KIAMA BAY….-5
LAHAAG….-7
FORGOTTEN HERO….-7
§CONDUCT….-14
§COMMUNICATOR….-15
§EX ORIENTE….-16
*SWNYMOR….-16
OPEN EAGLE….-17
§HIGHLAND CASTLE….-17
*HI THERE….-20
*TWELVE STRINGS….-25
COUSIN KHEE….-26
ITLAAQ….-30
§AWAKE MY SOUL….-35
BORDER LEGEND….-35
CASHPOINT….-36

As you will remember the § indicates horses perceived as being best drawn and the * indicates a winner previously on the ground they face this afternoon.

I will not be betting because it goes against my grain at this time of the year, me much preferring the NH code anyway!

My figures for today’s three jumps meetings are below.

ASSUMPTIONS:

KELSO – Jump (Updated:08/11/2013 at 08:01:00)
Going
Good to Soft
(GoingStick: 6.8 on Thursday at 12:00)

Rails
Fresh bends on hurdle and chase course

Weather
Cold overnight (+1C) and dry. Forecast is to remain dry and
feeling quite cold (max temp 6C). Slightly more overcast with
just a few brighter spells Friday/Saturday.

SANDOWN PARK – Jump (Updated:08/11/2013 at 16:20:47)
Going
Chase – Soft, Good to Soft in places
Hurdle – Heavy, Soft in places
(GoingStick: Chase 6.4 Hurdle 5.6 on Thursday at 16:00)

Weather
10mm rain since 10am Friday, still light rain at present which is
expected to die out this evening. Dry then until further rain
forecast from mid-morning Saturday until mid-afternoon – 5mm or
more possible.

WINCANTON – Jump (Updated:08/11/2013 at 07:52:15)
Going
GOOD, GOOD TO SOFT IN PLACES
(GoingStick: Chase 7.8, Hurdle 7.9 on Friday at 07:45)

Rails
Fences & Hurdles moved out 4 yards onto better ground
All bends moved out, grass cut, spiked and will be sanded before
racing.

Weather
Dry last 24 hours. Forecast: Showers from lunch time today until
Saturday morning then clearing. Possible 3-6mm rain in next 24
hours.

* indicates horses having won previously on the going as currently described

SANDOWN 2-30

*GRANDADS HORSE….+9
REBEL REBELLION….+8
*KAPGA DE CERISY….+8
*MART LANE….-4
*NOZIC….-9
*ACKERTAC….-13
DOMATALINE….-15
MISTER GREZ….-22
HECTOR’S CHOICE….-31

THREE TO DUTCH – GRANDADS HORSE, KAPGA DE CERISY, MART LANE
20/80 – KAPGA DE CERISY
EXOTICS – GRANDADS HORSE, KAPGE DE CERISY, MART LANE
LAY – NONE

ADVICE – My top rated has won on soft but I’m of a mind he would prefer quicker found. I’ll have him in my dutch simply because the trainer is ablaze right now but my 20/80 goes to the horse trained by another that burst into flames last weekend, Venetia Williams. Kapga De Cerisy loves this place and is three time a course winner. I’ll bet as indicated.

SANDOWN 3-05

MCVICAR….+3
*OSCAR PRAIRIE….-5
*SAPHIR DU RHEU….-11
*UT MAJEUR AULMES….-17
UBALDO DES MENHIES….-20
SWAMPFIRE….-21
VALID REASON….-24
*CHAT ROOM….-25
WHIPCRACKAWAY….-27
KINGCORA….-31
HAWKHILL….-38
CRAFTY ROBERTO….-40
ESCORT’MEN….-40

THREE TO DUTCH – OSCAR PRAIRIE, SAPHIR DU RHEU, UT MAJEUR AULMES
20/80 – SAPHIR DU RHEU
EXOTICS – OSCAR PRAIRIE, SAPHIR DU RHEU, UT MAJEUR AULMES
LAY – NONE

ADVICE – This has a whiff about it. I cannot get anything like a proper handle on Chat Room. Another stable in serious form, this horse has had just one run over hurdles, on heavy, and he bolted up. If he is your fancy do not let my figures put you off. The one I’ve opted to punt 20/80 will like this ground and was expected to win at Cheltenham but ran no race at all. I’ll give him another chance.

SANDOWN 3-40

*GORGEHOUS LLIEGE….-6
TIME FOR SPRING….-10
*VENETIAN LAD….-12
*FINE PARCHMENT….-13
*SHUIL ROYALE….-14
*TAFIKA….-23
FIRM ORDER….-32
FRANKLIN ROOSEVELT….-39
LOUGH COI….-40

THREE TO DUTCH – GORGEHOUS LLIEGE, VENETIAN LAD, FINE PARCHMENT
20/80 – GORGEHOUS LLIEGE
EXOTICS – GORGEHOUS LLIEGE, VENETIAN LAD, FINE PARCHMENT
LAY – FRANKLIN ROOSEVELT

ADVICE – I am scratching my head wondering why nothing in here has obtained a + figure but, triple checked, the figures are right. I’m working with the three proven on the ground, highest in my top six rated.

WINCANTON 12-55

*BESIDE THE FIRE….+9
BE DEFINITE….+8
*O’CALLAGHAN STRAND….-6
*NEXT OASIS….-16
PLEIN POUVOIR….-19
*UPTON MEAD….-24
MISTER SNOWBALL….-31
TAFFY THOMAS….-40

THREE TO DUTCH – BESIDE THE FIRE, O’CALLAGHAN STRAND, NEXT OASIS
20/80 – BESIDE THE FIRE
EXOTICS – BESIDE THE FIRE, O’CALLAGHAN STRAND, NEXT OASIS
LAY – NONE

ADVICE – I’m not at all confident of having this one right but, I’ve rated it, i’ve three in my top four with winning form on good ground and they’ll do for me personally.

WINCANTON 1-30

*TARA ROSE….+9
*UTOPIE DES BORDES….-6
*SCHOLASTICA….-8
*CALL ME A STAR….-9
*MRS PEACHEY….-11
*EMILY’S FLYER….-13
HIGHLAND RETREAT….-14
*BLASE CHEVALIER….-19
*KIM TIAN ROAD….-25
*EMERALD ROSE….-26
*VA’VITE….-29
*MICKIE….-35
*AS I AM….-35
JEAN FLEMING….-40
LOYAUTE….-40

THREE TO DUTCH – TARA ROSE, UTOPIE DES BOURDES, SCHOLASTICA
20/80 – TARA ROSE
EXOTICS – TARA ROSE, UTOPIE DES BOURDES, SCHOLASTICA
LAY – NONE

ADVICE – I’m expecting a big run from my top rated. Same stable won this in 2008, 2009 and saddled the runner up in 2010 so they know what it takes. I’ll work exactly as my figures suggest I should here.

WINCANTON 2-05

KARINGA DANCER….-6
*AYAKNOWYERSELF….-6
FAR WEST….-7
MELODIC RENDEZVOUS….-16
*COTTON MILL….-21
SWNYMOR….-30
RULER OF ALL….-40

ADVICE – Not your normal handicap. I will probably just have a 20/80 my top one and watch what happens.

WINCANTON 2-40

*STANDING OVATION….+13
*AITEEN THIRTYTHREE….+10
BALLYALLIA MAN….+9
*BILLE MAGERN….+9
*PANTXOA….+/-0
*LAMBORO LAD….-10
*POUNGACH….-13
*DE LA BACH….-20
MASTERS HILL….-26
*OWEN GLENDOWER….-30
COURT BY SURPRISE….-37
BALLYOLIVER….-37
ALFIE SPINNER….-40
ALVARADO….-40

THREE TO DUTCH – STANDING OVATION, AITEEN THIRTYTHREE, BILLIE MAGERN
20/80 – STANDING OVATION
EXOTICS – STANDING OVATION, AITEEN THIRTYTHREE, BILLIE MAGERN
LAY – NONE

ADVICE – Again I’m happy to play my three highest rated with winning form on good ground. It’s at odds with my profiling though….listen in if I can get that podcast up!

KELSO 1-40

KARINGA DANDY….-3
*WHAT A STEEL….-11
*DEVOTION TO DUTY….-16
BISHOPS HEIR….-20
MICRO MISSION….-26
TALKIN SENCE….-29
APLHA VICTOR….-40

ADVICE – Here it’s just a dutch rated horses 2 & 3 purely and simply because of the * next to their names. If my top rated succeeds in what is in truth not a great race, then I’ll look a plank and those punting the top rated will be pinging e-mails my way rubbing my nose in it.

KELSO 2-15

*KRUZHLININ….+11
*MAGGIO….+11
*ROLECARR….+10
*BLENHEIM BROOK….+2
*GARLETON….-5
*SA SUFFIT….-17
*ANEYEFORANEYE….-18

ADVICE – A little cracker. All good to go on the ground, a decent prize to chase and I’ll just trust my top two to produce me a profit….dutch, 20/80 Kruzhlinin and an exotic.

KELSO 2-50

*SWIFT ARROW….+11
*MR MOONSHINE….+8
*JET MASTER….-4
*UPSILON BLEU….-5
RHYMERS HA’….-13
WILDE PASTURES….-15

ADVICE – My bottom pair are trained by trainers smashing them in right now. However, I’ve two + rated, having won on good to soft so it’s over to them!

KELSO 4-00

*SENDIYM….+2
*BOB’S DREAM….+/-0
BEN AKRAM….-13
*JIM TANGO….-15
BREEZE WITH EASE….-22
LAYBACH….-26
BALLYCOOL….-39
OVERLAW….-40

ADVICE – If we need to be looking to “get out” here we could be up that creek “paddle less” Rated horses 1, 2 and 4 get a dutch, I’ll have a 20/80 my top one and exotics.

OF INTEREST

THE LAST SAMURI (Kelso 12-30) – 20/80
TINY DANCER (Kelso 3-25) – 20/80
CLANCY’S CROSS (Wincanton 3-50) – 20/80

THE E.W. DOUBLE

CLANCY’S CROSS (Wincanton 3-50)
GRANDADS HORSE (Sandown 2-30)

The very best of luck if you are punting today

Kindest regards

Ron

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