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Today’s Ratings and Advice 08/11/13

We received a couple of e-mails yesterday asking why my figures went up late on the website. Well, after hearing about my work being bandied about on the Betfair forum and my not wanting to believe one of our members would be daft enough to do that kind of thing, I was reminded of an e-mail I received a while back advising me that it was easy for a non-member to access my work on the site without the need to login and so, I asked our webmaster to look at any potential issues and refrained from posting the figures on the site whilst this area was checked. The guy that e-mailed me telling me this could be done also then e-mailed me a screenshot of the Ratings page and indeed, there sat that day’s figures. He wanted a fee to make it secure and I politely refused but it made sense to have this looked at again today. My apologies if this inconvenienced anyone.

I guess if people can hack into the Pentagon nothing we do here will stop anyone determined enough to do that to us. Pentagon and Post Racing….I’m flattered!

How happy was I with yesterday’s figures? Ecstatic sums it up quite nicely. How happy with the sole lay?….likewise!….and with the OF INTEREST selections….over the moon.

In the last two days I’ve secured the dutch with three decent priced ones but yesterday’s 20/1 shot made for pleasant viewing, especially as the lay struggled home in third, the 2/1 favourite.

There was me worried about the possibility of rain at Musselburgh and what happens….it dried out to ground more suitable for flat racing! Great to see James Ewart’s horses running so well, two winners from three runners, the other unfortunately falling at the first fence.

MUSSELBURGH 3-00

*KNIGHT WOODSMAN….+6 – 3RD
*DUKEOFCHESTERWOOD +/-0 – 2ND
*MORE EQUITY….-11 – WON
*FOOT THE BILL….-11 – 4TH
QUINDER SPRING….-12 – 5TH
JAN JANDAURA….-20

ADVICE – I myself will simply play a top two dutch, go 20/80 my top one and light that candle I have made previous references to.

RESULT – Top three first three home but unfortunately not a bean back.

MUSSELBURGH 3-30

*WEYBRIDGE LIGHT….+9
*ANY GIVEN MOMENT….+8
*ABBEY GARTH….-3
UEUETEOTL….-12
EASY REACH….-13
MERCHANT OF DUBAI….-15
BOGSIDE….-20
RED EYES….-34
BALLYREESODE….-40

THREE TO DUTCH – WEYBRIDGE LIGHT, ANY GIVEN MOMENT, ABBEY GARTH
20/80 – WEYBRIDGE LIGHT
EXOTICS – WEYBRIDGE LIGHT, ANY GIVEN MOMENT, ABBEY GARTH
LAY – NONE

ADVICE – There should be no excuses on the grounds of fitness for my top rated but if the rains arrive and it goes worse than good he’d not be my play so monitor that as best you can. Right now I work as indicated and if I have further information on the going here when I send out the midday Newsletter I will pass it on to you.

RESULT – Not unhappy….not happy either.

TOWCESTER 1-10

*REALTO MO CROI….+12 – 4TH 8/1
YOUNG LOU….+3
*ROMNEY MARSH….-7
NIGHT OF PASSION….-8 – 3RD 7/2
NIKI ROYAL….-15
JE T’AIME….-17 – 2ND 11/1
ROSEINI….-24
MAXI’S LADY….-26
*MARIE DEJA LA….-35
LANSDOWNE PRINCESS….-37
POSSIBLY FLORA….-40
CARHUE PRINCESS….-40
CRUISE IN LUXURY….-40
AMAZINGGREYCE….-40
SAPPHIRE ROUGE….-40
JUNE FRENCH….-40
BEST BETTE….-40

THREE TO DUTCH REALTA MO CROI, YOUNG LOU, ROMNEY MARSH
STRAIGHT WIN – REALTA MO CROI
EXOTICS – REALTA MO CROI, YOUNG LOU, ROMNEY MARSH
LAY – NONE

ADVICE – My figures suggest strongly that my top rated should oblige BUT…149 days off the track? I’ll play as indicated but to those lower than usual stakes because it’s low grade stuff.

RESULT – 2ND, 3RD AND 4TH in my top six and my top one performed well enough.

TOWCESTER 1-40

AUTUMM SPIRIT….-9
*BRAVO RIQUET….-11
*SALUT HONORE….-13 – WON 20/1
BALLYVONEEN….-14 – 2ND 6/1
VON GALEN….-16
OVERTON LAD….-25- 4TH 50/1
IFONLYALFIE….-29
*TOP BENEFIT….-32
GLENWOOD PRINCE….-40
ENDOFDISCUSION….-40
DRAMATIC VICTORY….-40
CASH IN HAND….-40
HENRY HURST….-40

THREE TO DUTCH – AUTUMM SPIRIT, BRAVO RIQUET, SALUT HONORE
20/80 – BRAVO RIQUET
EXOTICS – AUTUMM SPIRIT, BRAVO RIQUET, SALUT HONORE
LAY – GLENWOOD PRINCE

ADVICE – This will be another low staking jobby at this end. I’d trust this lot as far as I could throw them.

RESULT – Three of the first four home in my top six rated, dutch landed, lay beaten….happy enough, even though staking was low.

TOWCESTER 2-10

*SCALES….+15
*HOLLOW PENNY….+12
*VALID POINT….+9 – WON 7/1
*MARKET OPTION….+9
*HALUCHA….+8 – 4TH 40/1
*THORESBY….-5 – 6TH 16/1
CHURCH FIELD….-8
*MURCAR….-16
*EARCOMESTHEDREAM….-21
THINGER LICHT….-29
CRYSTAL SWING….-39
PHARE ISLE….-40
RIOR….-40
SQUIRE TRELAWNEY….-40
MOSCOW PRESENTS….-40
REYNO….-40

THREE TO DUTCH – SCALES, HOLLOW PENNY, VALID POINT
20/80 – SCALES
EXOTICS – SCALES, HOLLOW PENNY, VALID POINT
LAY – NONE

ADVICE – I mentioned above that stables in form are more relevant than anything else right now and that of Venetia Williams is also bang on blob. She trains my fourth highest rated, Market Option and if that one scuppers my own bets, so be it. This is the best race of the day bar none. I’m really looking forward to it.

RESULT – Another dutch secured and again three of the first six home in the top six rated.

OF INTEREST

MOUNTAIN TUNES (Towcester 3-10) – 20/80 – WON 6/4
PITTER PATTER (Towcester 4-10) – 20/80 – WON 6/1

I really feel for John Standish this morning. I read his piece on the website and sensed he was being ultra cautious but his decision was not to bet and he (I’ve been there!), suffered as both horses he mentioned he had considered putting up as a tip went and won 15/2 and 6/4. I know exactly how he feels right now.

Today we’ve three meetings to work with before I get busy on the podcast and we’ve plenty of small fields to ponder over. Some proper NH ground going on at both Hexham and Southwell, too.

Assumptions:

HEXHAM – Jump (Updated:08/11/2013 at 06:23:08)
Going
SOFT
(GoingStick: 4.8 on Wednesday at 15:30)
Rails
Fresh ground will be made available on bends, down back
straight and at all bar one hurdle site.
Weather
Dry over night
2mm last weekend & Mon.
Set mainly dry, bright spells & cold thereafter.
Temps between 0 to 8c
Other
All obstacles to be jumped
MUSSELBURGH – Jump (Updated:08/11/2013 at 06:54:13)
Going
Good Good to Soft in Places
(GoingStick: 6.8 on Friday at 06:45)
Rails
The hurdle and Chase use a common bend
Rail dropped on bottom bend 2 meters to give fresh ground
Weather
7mm Rain Thursday. Dry Friday 3mm Rain Saturday
Dry Sunday Cold 1mm Monday Dry Tuesday & Wednesday
7mm Rain Last night Clear am
Forecast:
Friday Cool Bright with Sunny Spells Breezy 8c
Other
Harriet Graham 07843 380401
@harrietgraham1
Stable Bookings musselburghstables@gmail.com
SOUTHWELL – Jump (Updated:08/11/2013 at 06:33:52)
Going
Soft, Heavy in Places
(GoingStick: 5.8 on Friday at 06:30)
Rails
The Golf club bend will be inside the bend into the home
straight outside the line raced 24 October
Weather
Wednesday- 14mm rainfall
Thursday- Dry
Forecast
Friday- Dry

* indicates horses having won previously on the going as currently described

MUSSELBURGH 2-35

*DISCOVERY BAY….+9
*SOLARAS EXHIBITION….+9
*POPULATION….+8
*NINE STORIES….-9
WILLOW’S SAVIOUR….-10
*DHAULAH DHAR….-26
*SAINT THOMAS….-30
*AUSTRALIA DAY….-35
SMART RULER….-40
EASY REACH….-40
RUNSWICK ROYAL….-40

THREE TO DUTCH – DISCOVERY BAY, SOLARAS EXHIBITION, POPULATION
20/80 – DISCOVERY BAY
EXOTICS – DISCOVERY BAY, SOLARAS EXHIBITION, POPULATION
LAY – NONE

ADVICE – Some cracking good racing at this meeting today and this is probably the best of them. My top three look to contain the winner on the numbers and they are the ones I’ll work with myself. Brian Ellison gave my top rated a pipe-opener on the flat 20 days ago, presumably in preparation for this and hopefully the cobwebs have been blown away and I get a decent run for the shekels.

MUSSELBURGH 3-05

*MONETARY FUND….+8
*GOLDEN SPARKLE….+7
*LOS NADIS….-9
*ARCTIC COURT….-13
*SO FINE….-15
*ONGENSTOWN LAD….-21
CAPELLANUS….-34
MARMAS….-40

THREE TO DUTCH – MONETARY FUND, GOLDEN SPARKLE, LOS NADIS
STRAIGHT WIN – MONETARY FUND
EXOTICS – MONETARY FUND, GOLDEN SPARKLE, LOS NADIS
LAY – NONE

ADVICE – My top one is trained by Venetia Williams, who has hers firing again now. The horse won this race last year, is 2-2 at Musselburgh and you can only think the horse has been prepared for a repeat performance.

SOUTHWELL 1-10

*SWISS ART….-23
MAD PROFESSOR….-29
THE ABSENT MARE….-37
PEAKS OF FIRE….-40
FINCH FLYER….-40
HOPEAND….-40

ADVICE – Absolutely dire race. I cannot think of anything else to say about it.

SOUTHWELL 2-45

*MIDNIGHT BELLE….+10
*IN BY MIDNIGHT….-1
*A LITTLE SWIFTER….-14
DREAMBROOK LADY….-20
RATTLIN….-26
ALDER MAIRI….-26

ADVICE – Straight win my top one, exotic my top two.

HEXHAM 12-50

SILVER SOPHIRE….-16
FLYING DOCTOR….-18
LADY OF VERONA….-26
BRAE ON….-32
BOB’S TICKET….-39
CHARLIE BUCKET….-39
OH RIGHT….-40
MORELLO MIST….-40
MACKLYCUDDY….-40
TWO OSCARS….-40

ADVICE – If you punt this race you do so knowing not a single one of them has won previously on the ground they will face this afternoon. Only two of these have ever won a race before (rated horses 2 & 7), and all indications are they need it nearly as hard as Bath in July! October Rules or nowt would be my call.

HEXHAM 2-25

*BLAKE DEAN….+9
*MORNING TIME….+8
ANCIENT TIMES….-2
RAYADOUR….-22
RAVI RIVER….-26
*SHAN VALLEY….-27
MRS GRASS….-40
MASTER MURPHY….-40
WAVE BREAKER….-40

ADVICE – My top two front the morning tissue, they stand head and shoulders above the rest of these on my numbers but with my top rated trading odds on in a handicap it’s just one I will watch.

HEXHAM 3-25

LOCAL PRESENT….+13
*PANTHERS RUN….+/-0
CRACKERJACK LAD….-1
*PAMAK D’AIRY….-9
VARDAS SUPREME….-27
PRINCE BLACKTHORN….-40
HAVE YOU HAD YOURS….-40

ADVICE – If my top one handles the soft, he should win. He has placed twice on it in eight starts on soft and if I do play, it will be a straight win bet my top one but I will wait to see just how bad it is before doing so.

OF INTEREST

FINMERELLO (Southwell 3-15) – 20/80
NO NO ROMEO (Southwell 3-45) – 20/80
OCEAN CLUB (Hexham 2-55) – straight win
PRESENTED (Hexham 3-55) – 20/80

Have a superb day and the very best of luck if you are betting

Kindest regards

Ron

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