I think it is plain for all to see that right now, and as I mentioned yesterday, we are seeing the first week of this month start very much as the last week of September finished our flat season. I think we dropped 32 points in that final week and whilst hopefully that’s not where we are heading this week, it would be prudent of everyone to either sit back and let this week….and possibly next week too….play out. I’m not at all unhappy with my figures but as I mentioned in an e-mail to a member yesterday, we are seeing top rated horses coming back from long lay offs and they are simply not seeing out their races.
As you know, I’m a firm believer that the dutch is king of the bets and on the right of this Newsletter you will see links to various areas of the website that explain all you will need to know about what I do….but not how I do it. Read the section on dutching and if it appeals make use of it because whilst I was acutely aware those simply playing my top rated are going through the mill right now, I was pocketing a nice enough little profit off the 9/1 winner of the last at chepstow yesterday, Bathwick Junior.
One thing I will never do is cheat the figures. During the month of October I made reference to the fact that the easiest way to pick winners is to latch on to stables in form, those that have their horses furthest forward. Right now Henry Daly’s is such a stable and the Chepstow 3-15 yesterday was a race I could quite easily have “placed” Brave Buck top but that would be wrong of me to do so. He was the most obvious winner of that race and running for the Daly stable. He was also my top rated in the race he recently won at Ffos Las where he won very easily.
I felt very sorry for John Standish yesterday. He has also spotted that the Daly yard is alight right now and I assume he opted to play the longest priced Daly runner, posting up his 1pt win/2pt place Heronshaw, The horse all but decanted it’s jockey four out but going to the last I honestly thought John was going to have a very nice priced winner but I imagine a combination of that error, the long lay off and the fact McCoy had switched to the winner, replacing a 10lb claimer (they should not allow jockey changes on raceday….one for tomorrow’s podcast!), saw him beaten just 2/4 of a length. Unlucky John, keep it up, sir!
Henry Daly saddled five runners yesterday and went home with three winners, a runner up and one finishing fifth. In the last week of racing he has saddled 11 runners, six of which have won.
So, my advice to you all is protect your betting bank and either play to much reduced stakes or abstain until things do bed in. The figures most definitely will start to come good sooner rather than later.
I had a bit of an e-mail conversation yesterday with a member who advises me that my work and figures are being openly discussed on the betfair forum and causing prices to crash. These are his words:
“I have watched as prices have fallen, your tips and ratings are offered in the betfair chat system, meaning any advantage created is unfortunately disappearing. You asked what do I think you should do, Hmmm maybe that horse has bolted, given the software around these days, it’s probable your figures are being reverse engineered for their trends, and I’d guess if you monitored your picks, of interest and top rated on befair for a few days from before you send the emails, to 30 mins after you’d see what is happening. You’ll see the drops in prices and pool predictions. I think Alan Potts stopped his tipping service for precisely the same reasons.”
I ask myself, why would anyone that has paid to be a member of Post Racing then decide to give the advice away on an open Forum, especially one connected to an Exchange? If it is you doing it, please get back to me advising me of what advantage you gain from doing this. I would ask that everyone keeps what they have to themselves because in the end, we will all be losers if you do not.
MUSSELBURGH – Jump (Updated:06/11/2013 at 08:04:12)
(GoingStick: 7.2 on Wednesday at 07:45)
The hurdle and Chase use a common bend
7mm Rain Thursday. Dry Friday 3mm Rain Saturday
Dry Sunday Cold Monday 1mm rain last night
Forecast: Dry Cool and bright might catch a shower tonight
Thursday and Friday Cool and Bright 8c
Harriet Graham 07843 380401
Stable Bookings firstname.lastname@example.org
TOWCESTER – Jump (Updated:06/11/2013 at 08:21:56)
Good to Soft, Soft in places
(GoingStick: 8.3 on Wednesday at 00:00)
Chase & Hurdle Courses are on shared bends.
Hurdle Course on inside line.
Dry at present, with further rain forecast for this
afternoon/Evening, up to 10mm.
Forecast to be dry Tomorrow, Temp +11c.
* indicates horses having won previously on the going as currently described.
*FOOT THE BILL….-11
ADVICE – I myself will simply play a top two dutch, go 20/80 my top one and light that candle I have made previous references to.
*ANY GIVEN MOMENT….+8
MERCHANT OF DUBAI….-15
THREE TO DUTCH – WEYBRIDGE LIGHT, ANY GIVEN MOMENT, ABBEY GARTH
20/80 – WEYBRIDGE LIGHT
EXOTICS – WEYBRIDGE LIGHT, ANY GIVEN MOMENT, ABBEY GARTH
LAY – NONE
ADVICE – There should be no excuses on the grounds of fitness for my top rated but if the rains arrive and it goes worse than good he’d not be my play so monitor that as best you can. Right now I work as indicated and if I have further information on the going here when I send out the midday Newsletter I will pass it on to you.
*REALTO MO CROI….+12
NIGHT OF PASSION….-8
*MARIE DEJA LA….-35
CRUISE IN LUXURY….-40
THREE TO DUTCH REALTA MO CROI, YOUNG LOU, ROMNEY MARSH
STRAIGHT WIN – REALTA MO CROI
EXOTICS – REALTA MO CROI, YOUNG LOU, ROMNEY MARSH
LAY – NONE
ADVICE – My figures suggest strongly that my top rated should oblige BUT…149 days off the track? I’ll play as indicated but to those lower than usual stakes because it’s low grade stuff.
CASH IN HAND….-40
THREE TO DUTCH – AUTUMM SPIRIT, BRAVO RIQUET, SALUT HONORE
20/80 – BRAVO RIQUET
EXOTICS – AUTUMM SPIRIT, BRAVO RIQUET, SALUT HONORE
LAY – GLENWOOD PRINCE
ADVICE – This will be another low staking jobby at this end. I’d trust this lot as far as I could throw them.
THREE TO DUTCH – SCALES, HOLLOW PENNY, VALID POINT
20/80 – SCALES
EXOTICS – SCALES, HOLLOW PENNY, VALID POINT
LAY – NONE
ADVICE – I mentioned above that stables in form are more relevant than anything else right now and that of Venetia Williams is also bang on blob. She trains my fourth highest rated, Market Option and if that one scuppers my own bets, so be it. This is the best race of the day bar none. I’m really looking forward to it.
MOUNTAIN TUNES (Towcester 3-10) – 20/80
PITTER PATTER (Towcester 4-10) – 20/80
Have a great day and the best of luck if you get involved