Today we are off up to Scotland to see James Ewart about our having a hurdler/chaser in training with him for our 500 Club members this winter. Our appointment with him is at 10-00am tomorrow morning, so it may well be I do not get a Newsletter out tomorrow morning. An apology if that is the case.
I have some feedback following the very disappointing run of Rosie’s Lady.
She seemed to settle better for being on the front end of the race but the second a horse came by her, she threw the lot out of the pram and simply didn’t do a tap. The guy that rode her got off and suggested she’d make a good hurdler!
Late next week Paul and I will visit stables and discuss a short term plan for her. If she continues to show reluctance to race then we will make a decision regarding her future as a racehorse. It could be she is simply a lot better on an all weather surface and I’ll suggest to Paul that we perhaps look at a race at Wolverhampton and then, if the same attitude is displayed, we move her on.
We will also be looking to discuss The Jury syndicate with a view to progressing this new venture. You can check out details of it on the website and if anyone is interested please get in touch as soon as possible.
Before we look back at yesterday’s ratings and results I have to thank both John Standish and Tony Davidson for coming up with the goods yesterday.
I know John was quite nervous about having his first selection go live but he has come up with a winner at his first attempt and you cannot say fairer than that.
When his e-mail came through to me Green Flag was trading around 11/8 and with his reasoning sound enough even I had a few quid on. Great start, John.
Hopefully, should he have a selection today, he’ll back it up with more profit.
Tony Davidson has started his Goal Posts “career” brilliantly and yesterday he provided readers of that site with this:
“For Saturdays bet I’m looking at the game between West Brom and Palace.
Both teams are coming into this game off a defeat from last weekend and funnily enough, the two teams that beat them also face each other this weekend. Means nothing of course but I like odd things like that.
I think this is an easy one to sort out for betting on.
Crystal Palace is the worst side in the Prem, that is already clear. Their gaffer has already jumped ship and they appear to have no clue as to how to win a game.
In losing 8 of their 9 games so far they have scored just 6 goals and conceded 19 and not only are they bottom of the league itself but if you look at the league table for performances away from home, they sit bottom of that one as well having lost all 4 games played away. They have conceded 9 goals away and scored just 2.
West Brom are not pulling up any trees but before last weekends battering at Anfield they had conceded just 6 goals in 8 games and scored 7 so what I would not be expecting here is a goalfest.
The home form of the Baggies isn’t exactly brilliant but they started more slowly than last season and before going up to Liverpool they were starting to take shape. They were unbeaten in 4 games going into that match, winning at Old Trafford, drawing with Arsenal and Stoke and battering Sunderland.
They have scored 4 and conceded 4, losing 2 of the 4 games at the Hawthornes.
A lot will depend on the fitness of Morgan Amalfitano who has been a brilliant loan signing but got a knock last weekend and is rated only 75% likely to play. I do not see CP causing them much of a problem as Steve Clarkes team look to settle themselves into mid table for the rest of the season and my bets here will be
West Brom to win to nil – 1pt @ 8/5
West Brom to win 2-0 – 0.5pt @ 7/1”
All I can say is, outstanding.
Following on from last weekends 9/2 shout he follows up her with a 7/1 winner and two successful plays.
He now shows a profit of 8.2pts and his approach to football betting obviously has sound foundations.
I know he is having a few PC issues right now as Ray had to post his work up yesterday but I hope his Sunday bet arrives in time for us all to make watching a game a bit more enjoyable.
So, what about the Ratings?
It has been a case of us suffering a bit on that front but as has been mentioned, we do still have the issue of fitness etc with plenty of runners still making their seasonal debuts following long absences. Did we see anything to offer encouragement for today?
*GUS MACRAE….+12 – 5TH 12/1
*ULCK DU LIN….+9
*KING EDMUND….+4 – 6th 14/1
MY BROTHER SYLVEST….-3
*LANCETTO….-11 – 2ND 20/1
*DRUMSHAMBO….-20 – WON 16/1
THREE TO DUTCH – GUS MACRAE, ULCK DU LIN, FAIRY RATH
20/80 – GUS MACRAE
EXOTICS – GUS MACRAE, ULCK DU LIN, FAIRY RATH
LAY – NONE
ADVICE – The handicap “proper” looks about right save for my top rated being down that particular pecking order. The bottom five in the handicap sit bottom five on my figures and this looks a race to work with. I’m happy with my top three rated and if Rebecca has GUS MACRAE primed for a repeat performance (won this race last year), he could be a big price. Same preparation in that he has had his pipe opener and should arrive fit to go. I’ll play my dutch to produce my projected profit and work as is my usual way.
RESULT – I am always wary of Venetia Williams runners, you just never know what her plans are and yesterday she did me up like a kipper. My top rated ran well enough to finish 5th but this result did signify to me we’ll be a few more days before hitting anything like full stride.
*GIBB RIVER….+12 – 5th 9/1
RAYVIN BLACK….+12 – 6th 20/1
*CHRIS PEA GREEN….-8 – 2nd 8/1
SAPHIR DU RHEU….-9
*GET ME OUT OF HERE….-15
PINE CREEK….-20 – WON 11/2
THREE TO DUTCH – GIBB RIVER, COURT MINSTREL, JUMPS ROAD
20/80 – GIBB RIVER
EXOTICS – GIBB RIVER, COURT MINSTREL, JUMPS ROAD
LAY – NONE
ADVICE – My top rated has an absence of 553 days to overcome but he’s with a trainer that will have him fit and ready, that’s for sure. Only two of this field has raced so far this season and they sit 2nd and 6th best on my numbers. As has been pointed out many times already fitness will be paramount so I fully expect both RAYVIN BLACK and MAKARI to be to the fore here. It’s interesting that Sherwood runs RAYVIN BLACK from 7lb wrong and on ground slower than he has won on….two placed efforts on good to soft so probably not a lot to concern you if you went in at fancy odds.
It’s another cracking good, competitive race and hopefully the figures produce me a profit.
RESULT – My top rated again plods home in 5th and my “bottom” rated horse makes me look a right plank.
*TRIOLO D’ALENE….+15 – 3rd 7/1
*BLESS THE WINGS….+8
*BIG FELLA THANKS….+8
THERE’S NO PANIC….-16
*HOUBLON DES OBEAUX….-20 – WON 12/1
THREE TO DUTCH – TRIOLO D’ALENE, QUINZ, BLESS THE WINGS
20/80 – TRIOLO D’ALENE
EXOTICS – TRIOLO D’ALENE, QUINZ, BLESS THE WINGS
LAY – BUDDY BOLERO
ADVICE – Before the Cheltenham Festival last season Tony McCoy was asked which horse he felt was the Cheltenham banker and he nominated BUDDY BOLERO. A good horse for sure but he’s going to need rain here as all of his form to date has come on soft or heavy, his last two wins on the latter. The step up in trip will probably help but with so many in the field having trip and ground right he’s a favourite looking vulnerable. My top rated has track, trip and ground right and now on a roll (won his last two), and with the yard firing in winners yesterday, I will get a good run for my money. This, for me, is the best race of the day. Give me a cracking good handicap steeplechase over those top grade ‘chases any day!
RESULT – A good lay beaten but Venetia obviously had hers spot on for yesterday and it doesn’t matter how good a ratings system is as this point in proceedings, they’ll not spot this kind of thing up. My top rated is getting closer though! Third place here an improvement on those 5th placed ones before….means nothing though in terms of profit, another losing race.
SOLWAY SAM….+4 – 3RD 11/2
*DAASIJ….+/-0 – 6TH 13/2
*AMORE MIO….-1 – WON 4/1
LADY OF VERONA….-7 – NR
HARTFORTH….-10 – 2nd 11/2
AUBERGE….-17 – 4th 16/1
*THE FLAMING MATRON….-29
THREE TO DUTCH – SOLWAY SAM, DAASIJ, AMORE MIO
20/80 – DAASIJ
EXOTICS – SOLWAY SAM, DAASIJ, AMORE MIO
LAY – NONE
ADVICE – My top rated arguably needs it a tad quicker but the majority of these have a going concern which makes me think that punting my top three for a dutch is right but, that DAASIJ should carry the solo play. Not a great race but competitive enough and hopefully profitable.
RESULT – When I was watching this it was obvious the ground had gone for my top rated but the pleasing thing for me personally was the performance of the top six rated, which is where I start looking for my winner once I have a race rated. I discussed “natural progression” in the Newsletter that went out on Thursday and here that meant my top six rated horses produced the 1st, 2nd, 3rd, 5th and 6th placed horses. It also meant I had my dutch nailed and so a winning race for me personally. …if only buttons being banked.
SPITFIRE ACE….+10 – UR
*SHOAL BAY DREAMER….-5 – 2ND 15/2
TRESOR DE L’ISLE….-12 – WON 15/2
ALEXANDER OATS….-14 – 4TH 7/2
ADVICE – No dutching here. It’s my top two I’ll work with and if SPITFIRE ACE can improve just a tad he’s got to take a bit of beating. Again it’s not a great race and whatever wins it will not pull-up any trees but, it’s a handicap, I’ve worked on it and I will endeavour to sneak a profit from it.
RESULT – You will often here me mention decision making. Here it was bog awful! Had I opted to play exactly as I had that race above, I would have enjoyed a winning dutch, a 56/1 CSF and a 47/1 exacta….as it was, I banked nothing. The winner and runner up in my top three and the first three home in my top four evidence we are heading in the right direction.
*UBALTIQUE….+14 – PU
THREE TO DUTCH – UBALTIQUE, COOL BARANCA, BIG WATER
20/80 – UBALTIQUE
EXOTICS – UBALTIQUE, COOL BARANCA, BIG WATER
LAY – NONE
ADVICE – The next two races here are little gems. I have three here having obtained a + figure and all good to go on the soft ground. I will simply work with them as best I can and fingers crossed, bank a small profit from it.
RESULT – When an Irish horse travels over I am always very wary of them because marrying up a rating can be seriously difficult and here I just hold my hands up and say, I got this one wrong.
*SIMPLY NED….+9 – WON 11/4
*UN GUET APENS….+8
THREE TO DUTCH – PROSECCO, SIMPLY NED, MISTER STICKLER
20/80 – PROSECCO
EXOTICS – PROSECCO, SIMPLY NED, MISTER STICKLER
LAY – CATCH TAMMY
ADVICE – Small field but a seriously competitive race and I’m just hoping Lucinda Russell has my top one ready to go. The horse took this race last season and I would imagine they’ll not have left the horse short for an attempt at a repeat. I’m hoping not, any way!
RESULT – Lucinda’s horses are either running well and winning, or beaten a fair way out and here we suffered the latter. Happy enough to see the second of my two lays beaten though and this augurs well for those using my figures purely for laying purposes. Another winning dutch, too so I was pleased with this one.
MORE OF THAT….+10 – WON 3/1
*TWELVE ROSES….+10 – 2nd 7/2
PAS TROP TARD….-2
ADVICE – The top three dutch is not a viable play here as my top three front the market and it the winner is outside that trio I’ll be very surprised. To top my figures after one run means the top one must be half decent and what I’ll probably do is just play my top two. I will dutch that pair, have a straight win MORE OF THAT and have an exotic….might lob ARDLUI in for a straight tricast.
RESULT – My figures were absolutely spot on here. My top two rated pulled 24 lengths clear of the field and I landed everything. A nice way to finish and hopefully we carry this kind of result over to today.
BENNY THE SWINGER….+9
THREE TO DUTCH – BOBBY DOVE, BENNY THE SWINGER, ZEN FACTOR
20/80 – BOBBY DOVE
EXOTICS – BOBBY DOVE, BENNY THE SWINGER, ZEN FACTOR
LAY – NONE
ADVICE – Much is going to depend on the fitness level of my top rated. If he is ready to go then I expect a decent run for my shekels. I have opted to dutch rated horses 1, 2 and 5 purely on the grounds of them having won on the going as currently described and, they sit inside my top six. Those new to how I myself works will soon latch on!
TYPHON DE GUYE….-17
FLEMI TWO TOES….-19
ADVICE – This has all the appearance of that Wetherby race yesterday. I will work in exactly the same was here….straight win my top rated, top two dutch and an exotic.
NODDA HIGH KID….-22
THREE TO DUTCH – THE WEATHERMAN, WILLIE HALL, FUNK MUNKY
20/80 – THE WEATHERMAN
EXOTICS – THE WEATHERMAN, WILLIE HALL, FUNKY MUNKY
LAY – NONE
ADVICE – Keep a very close eye on the ground. My feeling is it will have turned heavy by off time and that will make a world of difference to what would happen if it rode soft. I will be keeping my own staking low here and playing the three in my top six having won on the going as currently described. I’ll be in Scotland when this is run and pass Carlisle (more or less), on the way up….if I can get out a weather update whilst enjoying a coffee on the journey, then I will do so.
THREE TO DUTCH – JAUNTY JOURNEY, LIVELY BARON, MISTER MARKER
20/80 – JAUNTY JOURNEY
EXOTICS – JAUNTY JOURNEY, LIVELY BARON, MISTER MARKER
LAY – NONE
ADVICE – Very competitive little race with a seriously decent pot on offer. I have my figures, my top three all look good to go on the ground and we’ll see what happens.
GREY GOLD (Carlisle 2-40) – 20/80
Have a great day and the very best of luck if you are punting.