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The warts ‘n all weekend review

The LiquidatorWe do not go hiding here. If we have a bad day, bad weekend, we acknowledge it and move on. There is absolutely no point in doing otherwise and you simply have to treat winning and losing days in exactly the same way. If you cannot do that, you need to be looking at spending your spare cash on something else.

We had a great day on Friday, a poor day on Saturday and an indifferent day on Sunday but today is Monday and those other days count for nothing….not even the Friday.

This is my look back at what could (understatement), have been a better weekend.

Saturday

CHELTENHAM 1-50

*SPRING HEELED….+10
*BURTON PORT….+1
*MONBEG DUDE….-5 – 4TH 10/1
*BRADLEY….-7 – 3RD 5/1
*BALLYBOUGH GORTA….-8
*QUENTIN COLLONGES….-8
*GODSMEJUDGE….-14
GOULANES….-18
*ON TREND….-21
TOUR DES CHAMPS….-32
*KNOCKARA BEAU….-35
ALVARADO….-40 – WON 12/1
BECAUSEICOULDNTSEE….-40

THREE TO DUTCH – SPRING HEELED, MONBEG DUDE, BRADLEY
20/80 – SPRING HEELED
EXOTICS – SPRING HEELED, MONBEG DUDE, BRADLEY
LAY – GOULANES – 10TH 11/2

ADVICE – Happy enough with my figures here and if Burton Port is still as good as I once thought he was then I’ll look a muppet for leaving him out. I’ll work as I have suggested and hopefully draw something from this.

RESULT – So, could I have found this one? Sure, given 13 bites at the cherry! Trip and ground were unknown quantities, him looking a 2 1/2 mile specialist and requiring good to soft or softer, to show off his best. The trainers other runner, Bradley, looked to have by far the best chance and he ran a cracker to finish third. I don’t think I have ever seen one come up that hill as fast as the winner did, at the end of a race such as this – it was like he joined in after the last. No, my rating for him was right. On a plus point, we got the lay beaten.

CHELTENHAM 2-30

*FINIAN’S RAINBOW….+11
*RAJDHANI EXPRESS….+9 – 5TH 8/1
*WISHFUL THINKING….+8 – 6TH 33/1
*JOHNS SPIRIT….+4 – WON 7/1
*ASTRACAD….+3
*WOOLCOMBE FOLLY….+1
GIFT OF DGAB….+/-0
*NADIYA DE LA VEGA….-4
*CHAMPION COURT….-15
*ATTAGLANCE….-17
*KUMBESHWAR….-24
BALLYNAGOUR….-25
VINO GRIEGO….-33
*CONQUISTO….-33
*BATTLE GROUP….-36
CARRICKBOY….-40
COLOUR SQUADRON….-40
EASTER METEOR….-40
HIDDEN CYCLONE….-40

THREE TO DUTCH – FINIAN’S RAINBOW, RAJDHANI EXPRESS, WISHFUL THINKING
20/80 – FINIAN’S RAINBOW
EXOTICS – FINIAN’S RAINBOW, RAJDHANI EXPRESS, WISHFUL THINKING
LAY – CHAMPION COURT

ADVICE – If my figures are right they blow my profiling out of the water. As was mentioned in the podcast if Finian’s Rainbow is back to anything like his best he’d beat these hollow. I’m working as I’ve outlined above because I’m already on Ballynagour at fancy prices (I fear it may not be soft enough for him), and I’ll look for a bookmakers to stop at on my way south so that I can watch what should be a great race.

RESULT – I’m very happy with my figures here. The winner is in my top four, we got the very well backed favourite laid and beaten and if I had my time again I would probably have omitted my top one and included the winner in my dutch but, if my Uncle was a woman he’d be my Aunt. I cannot complain about the runs of the other two in my dutch and as I say, I’m happy with my figures here.

CHELTENHAM 3-00

*CROSS KENNON….+8 – 4TH 12/1
*BALLY LEGEND….+8
*GAUVAIN….+5 – 6TH 25/1
*SOUTHFIELD THEATRE….+5 – 3RD 5/1
*SUNNYHILLBOY….+4
*CLOSE HOUSE….-9
SALUBRIOUS….-11
*MONETARY FUND….-13
*RECESSION PROOF….-14
*VICTRIX GALE….-15
*CINEVATOR….-17
*ARALDUR….-24
*SILVER EAGLE….-26
*PINEAU DE RE….-26
*RED NOT BLUE….-27
*GREYFRIARS DRUMMER….-27
EDMUND KEAN….-30
LAMB OR COD….-40
RETURN SPRING….-40 – WON 20/1

THREE TO DUTCH – CROSS KENNON, BALLY LEGEND, GAUVAIN
20/80 – CROSS KENNON
EXOTICS – CROSS KENNON, BALLY LEGEND, GAUVAIN
LAY – SILVER EAGLE

ADVICE – As competitive a hurdle race as we’ll see. I’ve got horses down the bottom of my ratings that could well win this but I have what I have and will trust the runes.

RESULT – Our winner was bottom rated of the entire field. How did it win? You tell me! Off the track for 214 days, never won beyond 2 miles 5 furlongs before, both wins coming on soft ground. The horse had winning form in Class 4 races…this was Class 1. On the plus side, my top rated ran a cracker, I’ve three of the first six home in my top four rated and, we laid another beaten favourite.

WETHERBY 1-30

*OUTLAW TORN….-8
*DANCEINTOTHELIGHT….-10
*LOOKOUT MOUNTAIN….-15 – 2ND 9/4
*WOLF SHIELD….-18
FORTY CROWN….-22
KENT STREET….-27
FLICKA WILLIAMS….-28
JOSEPH MERCER….-29
WAYWARD GLANCE….-40
AMERICAN LIFE….-40
MADAM LILIBET….-40

ADVICE – It’s simply October Rules or nowt for me personally. Not a race I would want to be involved in to heavily.

RESULT – The “off” meetings looked bad and that’s how it proved to be. This was not a race I liked from the second I clapped eyes on it and had LOOKOUT MOUNTAIN jumped the last two cleanly he would have won pulling a cart. But he didn’t and, he didn’t. Pennies lost but no matter in the grand scheme of things.

WETHERBY 2-05

*DENALI HIGHWAY….+10 – 2ND 7/2
*GROUSE LODGE….+10
NO PLANNING….-3 – WON 15/8
*FRANK THE SLINK….-3
ROYAL SIM….-8
SCOTSWELL….-17

ADVICE – If the winner sits outside my top two I’ll be poorer. Straight win my top one and an exotic the top pair.

RESULT – Poorer. If that one ever beats my top rated again though, this season, I’ll bare my backside in Burtons. Beaten by the lack of a run only.

WETHERBY 2-40

*ACORDINGTOSCRIPT….+7 – PU
SPITFIRE ACE….+1
TRESOR DE L’ISLE….-4
*MIDNIGHT CHARMER….-5
TWICE LUCKY….-9
GOODTOKNOW….-17
VARDAS SUPREME….-20
BADGER FOOT….-26 – WON 9/2

ADVICE – This is already filed under “dodgy”. Another I’m playing purely to October Rules.

RESULT – Again just buttons lost on what was a dodgy looking race, only two having won previously on the going as “currently described”. My top rated jumped like a crab and pulled up when his jockey decided he wanted to get home in one piece.

WETHERBY 3-15

*HARTSIDE….+14 – 5TH 8/1
*LIGHTENING ROD….+9
*MOJOLIKA….-5
LIFETIME….-11 – 3RD 15/2
ZAFRANAGAR….-16 – 2ND 11/2
*DOYNOSAUR….-22 – 4TH 25/1
*ZAPLAMATION….-22
MITCHELL’S WAY….-24
FAIR TRADE….-30
GOLDEN FUTURE….-36
DUMBARTON….-37
THE BULL HAYES….-40
PERTUIS….-40

THREE TO DUTCH – HARTSIDE, LIGHTENING ROD, MOJOLIKA
20/80 – HARTSIDE
EXOTICS – HARTSIDE, LIGHTENING ROD, MOJOLIKA
LAY – NONE

ADVICE – A good competitive race and I’ll work as my numbers are telling me.

RESULT – Good figures again, the 2nd, 3rd, 4th and 5th in my top six rated – but the winner sat seventh and, so he should have done, too!

UTTOXETER 2-15

THE JUGOPOLIST….+11 – 5TH 4/1
CTAPPERS….+6
*WELLFORTH….+1 – 4TH 33/1
*ALBORZ….-8
TOKYO JAVILEX….-15
*HEAVENSTOWN….-19
DI KAPRIO….-24 – 2ND 25/1
RED ADMIRABLE….-29 – WON 14/1
*KILFLORA….-32
I KNOW THE CODE….-33
THE ROAD AHEAD….-37
BASFORD BOB….-40
TAKE THE MICK….-40
FINDING YOUR FEET….-40
JOHNNY’S LEGACY….-40

ADVICE – Trip and ground are a mystery for most of these and i’m afraid it’a another October Rules or diddly race for me personally.

RESULT – I opted to skip this one. Glad I did, too. I didn’t even lay the beaten favourite either?!….If anyone you know of found that winner, for whom the trip was a complete mystery, tell them they are saluted! He was beaten 53 lengths the last time we saw him race at Aintree in June….go figure.

UTTOXETER 2-50

*LEAN BURN….+1 – 4TH 8/1
PAGHAM BELLE….-5
WHISPERING HARRY….-12
*LOGICAL APPROACH….-25 – 3RD 17/2
PRINCE FREDDIE….-25 – 2ND 16/1
ON THE RECORD….-36
POETIC POWER….-40 – WON 16/1
ADILI….-40
ANCIENT TIMES….-40
ROSE RED….-40

ADVICE – The worst race of the day? Top three to those October Rules again I’m afraid.

RESULT – Another I skipped. Again, you have to ask how did this one win this race? Run in nearly half a minute outside of standard it’s seriously modest form and with two horses finishing first and second, that had not managed a win between them in 20 previous starts, I’m not surprised they didn’t top my figures on the day….they still wouldn’t this morning!

UTTOXETER 3-25

PENSNETT BAY….+13
*DANCING ART….+8
*DUKE OF MONMOUTH….-2 – WON 7/2
*STOW….-10
*HOLLINS….-21
*RINGA BAY….-25
*THE THIRSTY BRICKY….-25

ADVICE – The only horse in this race without winning form on soft is….my top rated. The chase course is heavy in places and if it’s “very soft” then my top rated should be fine. Top two for a dutch, a 20/80 DANCING ART and an exotic.

RESULT – The winner, who had at one time looked a decent enough hurdler, was running over fences for the second time, after pulling up in a novice chase at Kempton. He was dropping back in trip from that which he won his only race over timber and you simply had to be “guessing” what he would do here. As you know, I do not do guessing.

Sunday

CHELTENHAM 3-15

*IFANDBUTWHYNOT….+9
*SAMETEGAL….+8 – 2ND 8/1
*KALANN….+6
CASH AND GO….+3
*COURT MINSTREL….-9
*CALCULATED RISK….-11
*GET ME OUT OF HERE….-11
*FLAXEN FLARE….-11
*REDERA….-17
*L’UNIQUE….-19
*AHYAKNOWYOURSELF….-26
KASHMIR PEAK….-31
TANERKO EMERY….-36
THOMAS EDISON….-38
DELL’ ARCA….-40 – WON 12/1
PINE CREEK….-40
ENCHANTED FOREST….-40
RAWNAQ….-40

RESULT – I was in no position to bet yesterday but had I been, it would have been a very decent 20/80 SAMETEGAL. If you listened to the podcast he was one of the two I had narrowed it down to from a profiling point of view and suggested that if either sat in my top six here they should be looked upon as a bet. I could never, in a million years, have produced an accurate rating for the winner, who was making his debut in England, having has three runs in France. He cost a fortune but that would never have helped me get a number against his name. Now we are all wiser as to how good he is.

FONTWELL 1-50

*ALDERLUCK….+16 – 4TH 8/1
*FLYING AWARD….+13
BUCK’S BOND….+11 – 5TH 8/1
*CAMDEN….+9
*EMPEROR’S CHOICE….+5 – 6TH 4/1F
BOYFROMNOWHERE….-3 – WON 9/2
ADRENALIN FLIGHT….-8 – 2ND 25/1
THE CLYDA ROVER….-15
PETITFOUR….-18
SWINCOMBE ROCK….-30 – 3RD 16/1
AMERICAN SPIN….-39

RESULT – Four of the first six home in my top six but you would have need to know the winner was going to improve vastly for the step up in trip. I didn’t….I do now.

FONTWELL 2-25

*KINGHT OF PLEASURE….+8 – WON 7/2 > 5/2
FOXCUB….-8
*ORZARE….-14
ORABORA….-23
MUNSAAB….-26
MALLER TREE….-27
IMPERIAL STARGAZER….-36
DOLATULO….-40
ZAFRANAGAR….-40

RESULT – Hurrah! A top rated winner! Had I been able to do so, I would have been on and laid the favourite but, unfortunately, family duty called.

FONTWELL 4-00

MISS MAYFAIR….-1 – 4TH 9/1
*BRUNETTE’SONLY….-4 –
ABSOLUTE SHAMBLES….-13 – 3RD 4/1
*ORVITA….-14 – WON 16/1
SPANISH FORK….-21
CHANGING LANES….-30
UNE DES BIEFFES….-31
BEST BETTE….-40
LAUGHING GAME….-40

RESULT – Winner, 3rd and 4th in my top four with the winner one of only two in the race having won previously on slop. I would not have bet on this one even had I been able to do so.

Seven of my 14 rated races over the weekend were won by horses priced 20/1, 16/1, 16/1, 14/1, 12/1, 12/1, 12/1 and none were on my radar. In the podcast last week Sean asked me if my figures were more accurate for the bigger races, at the bigger meetings. Let’s just look back at the Cheltenham races over the three days and, you tell me:

CHELTENHAM 1-35

*ANAY TURGE….+9 – WON 9/1
*RENARD….+8
*EASTLAKE….+8
*HAVE YOU SEEN ME….-1
*PARSNP PETE….-9
*TINDARO….-12
*THEATRICAL STAR….-21
*DE FAOITHESDREAM….-22
*OH CRICK….-24
*HAVINGOTASCOOBYDO….-28
*GUS MACRAE….-28
CONSIGLIERE….-28
SEW ON TARGET….-29
*BALLYADAM BROOK….-33
*SHADOWS LENGTHEN….-35
BALLYGARVEY….-40
ELENIKA….-40

THREE TO DUTCH – ANAY TURGE, RENARD, EASTLAKE
20/80 – ANAY TURGE
EXOTICS – ANAY TURGE, RENARD, EASTLAKE
LAY – NONE

ADVICE – Top three front the morning tissue, they are the only three getting a +, what’s not to like? I’ll trust in the numbers!

RESULT – A lovely 9/1 top rated winner that could have been backed a double figures prices a.m.

CHELTENHAM 2-40

*WHISPER….+10 – 2RD 11/2
*THOMAS CRAPPER….+9 – WON 16/1
*GOD’S OWN….+2
*ONE CONEMARA….+/-0
*WATERED SILK….-6
ATLANTIC ROLLER….-10
HOLD COURT….-13
*HANDAZAN….-19
KAYLIF ARAMIS….-19
*KILLALA QUAY….-23
UNCLE JIMMY….-23
*SCARLET FIRE….-25
UPSWING….-27
DECIMUS….-31
TOP GAMBLE….-32
MILBOROUGH….-37
FREE TO DREAM….-40
KELLYS BROW….-40
WARDEN HILL….-40
ANGLES HILL….-40

THREE TO DUTCH – WHISPER, THOMAS CRAPPER, GOD’S OWN
20/80 – WHISPER
EXOTICS – WHISPER, THOMAS CRAPPER, GOD’S OWN
LAY – NONE

ADVICE – Normally I would be laying TOP GAMBLE but no way am I getting involved in that here. We have six in this race all capable of improving way past my numbers and that includes my top rated. I’ll work as indicated but with a little less confidence in the numbers than I have at 1-35.

RESULT – Two of my top three in the first three home and happy enough with my dutch…..would have been nice had whisper managed to get the runners up spot but when we have racing as competitive as this you need to be grateful for those small mercies.

CHELTENHAM 1-50

*SPRING HEELED….+10
*BURTON PORT….+1
*MONBEG DUDE….-5 – 4TH 10/1
*BRADLEY….-7 – 3RD 5/1
*BALLYBOUGH GORTA….-8
*QUENTIN COLLONGES….-8
*GODSMEJUDGE….-14
GOULANES….-18
*ON TREND….-21
TOUR DES CHAMPS….-32
*KNOCKARA BEAU….-35
ALVARADO….-40 – WON 12/1
BECAUSEICOULDNTSEE….-40

THREE TO DUTCH – SPRING HEELED, MONBEG DUDE, BRADLEY
20/80 – SPRING HEELED
EXOTICS – SPRING HEELED, MONBEG DUDE, BRADLEY
LAY – GOULANES – 10TH 11/2

ADVICE – Happy enough with my figures here and if Burton Port is still as good as I once thought he was then I’ll look a muppet for leaving him out. I’ll work as I have suggested and hopefully draw something from this.

RESULT – So, could I have found this one? Sure, given 13 bites at the cherry! Trip and ground were unknown quantities, him looking a 2 1/2 mile specialist and requiring good to soft or softer, to show off his best. The trainers other runner, Bradley, looked to have by far the best chance and he ran a cracker to finish third. I don’t think I have ever seen one come up that hill as fast as the winner did, at the end of a race such as this – it was like he joined in after the last. No, my rating for him was right. On a plus point, we got the lay beaten.

CHELTENHAM 2-30

*FINIAN’S RAINBOW….+11
*RAJDHANI EXPRESS….+9 – 5TH 8/1
*WISHFUL THINKING….+8 – 6TH 33/1
*JOHNS SPIRIT….+4 – WON 7/1
*ASTRACAD….+3
*WOOLCOMBE FOLLY….+1
GIFT OF DGAB….+/-0
*NADIYA DE LA VEGA….-4
*CHAMPION COURT….-15
*ATTAGLANCE….-17
*KUMBESHWAR….-24
BALLYNAGOUR….-25
VINO GRIEGO….-33
*CONQUISTO….-33
*BATTLE GROUP….-36
CARRICKBOY….-40
COLOUR SQUADRON….-40
EASTER METEOR….-40
HIDDEN CYCLONE….-40

THREE TO DUTCH – FINIAN’S RAINBOW, RAJDHANI EXPRESS, WISHFUL THINKING
20/80 – FINIAN’S RAINBOW
EXOTICS – FINIAN’S RAINBOW, RAJDHANI EXPRESS, WISHFUL THINKING
LAY – CHAMPION COURT

ADVICE – If my figures are right they blow my profiling out of the water. As was mentioned in the podcast if Finian’s Rainbow is back to anything like his best he’d beat these hollow. I’m working as I’ve outlined above because I’m already on Ballynagour at fancy prices (I fear it may not be soft enough for him), and I’ll look for a bookmakers to stop at on my way south so that I can watch what should be a great race.

RESULT – I’m very happy with my figures here. The winner is in my top four, we got the very well backed favourite laid and beaten and if I had my time again I would probably have omitted my top one and included the winner in my dutch but, if my Uncle was a woman he’d be my Aunt. I cannot complain about the runs of the other two in my dutch and as I say, I’m happy with my figures here.

CHELTENHAM 3-00

*CROSS KENNON….+8 – 4TH 12/1
*BALLY LEGEND….+8
*GAUVAIN….+5 – 6TH 25/1
*SOUTHFIELD THEATRE….+5 – 3RD 5/1
*SUNNYHILLBOY….+4
*CLOSE HOUSE….-9
SALUBRIOUS….-11
*MONETARY FUND….-13
*RECESSION PROOF….-14
*VICTRIX GALE….-15
*CINEVATOR….-17
*ARALDUR….-24
*SILVER EAGLE….-26
*PINEAU DE RE….-26
*RED NOT BLUE….-27
*GREYFRIARS DRUMMER….-27
EDMUND KEAN….-30
LAMB OR COD….-40
RETURN SPRING….-40 – WON 20/1

THREE TO DUTCH – CROSS KENNON, BALLY LEGEND, GAUVAIN
20/80 – CROSS KENNON
EXOTICS – CROSS KENNON, BALLY LEGEND, GAUVAIN
LAY – SILVER EAGLE

ADVICE – As competitive a hurdle race as we’ll see. I’ve got horses down the bottom of my ratings that could well win this but I have what I have and will trust the runes.

RESULT – Our winner was bottom rated of the entire field. How did it win? You tell me! Off the track for 214 days, never won beyond 2 miles 5 furlongs before, both wins coming on soft ground. The horse had winning form in Class 4 races…this was Class 1. On the plus side, my top rated ran a cracker, I’ve three of the first six home in my top four rated and, we laid another beaten favourite.

CHELTENHAM 3-15

*IFANDBUTWHYNOT….+9
*SAMETEGAL….+8 – 2ND 8/1
*KALANN….+6
CASH AND GO….+3
*COURT MINSTREL….-9
*CALCULATED RISK….-11
*GET ME OUT OF HERE….-11
*FLAXEN FLARE….-11
*REDERA….-17
*L’UNIQUE….-19
*AHYAKNOWYOURSELF….-26
KASHMIR PEAK….-31
TANERKO EMERY….-36
THOMAS EDISON….-38
DELL’ ARCA….-40 – WON 12/1
PINE CREEK….-40
ENCHANTED FOREST….-40
RAWNAQ….-40

RESULT – I was in no position to bet yesterday but had I been, it would have been a very decent 20/80 SAMETEGAL. If you listened to the podcast he was one of the two I had narrowed it down to from a profiling point of view and suggested that if either sat in my top six here they should be looked upon as a bet. I could never, in a million years, have produced an accurate rating for the winner, who was making his debut in England, having has three runs in France. He cost a fortune but that would never have helped me get a number against his name. Now we are all wiser as to how good he is.

Six races rated, a top rated winner that would have paid for the lot, a nice 16/1 winner in a dutch, Sametegal running a cracker to finish runner up….three well supported horses laid and beaten….I think it fair to say the answer I gave to Sean was accurate.

It is swings and roundabouts right now, as suggested a few days ago and it’s a season taking a little longer to settle down than I expected myself but, it will.

Did you listen to the podcast? Some good stuff came out of that and both of us were red hot on The Liquidator. My own suggestion was to punt the winner and lay the favourite. Sean was keen on Colour Squadron in the Paddy Power and came so close to getting that right and all in all, I’m very happy with that aspect of what we are doing and, enjoying doing it, too.

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