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Today’s Ratings and Advice 30/09/13

This is, for me, the last day of the flat racing season. We have been battering away at this since May 1st and over the next few days I will put together a review of the season and post it up on the website.

I have never known five month go by so quickly and, I have never known a five month period when I myself has been so busy. I’ve made plenty of mistakes, got plenty right but (as I keep saying), by the end of 2014 everything will be right where I want it. As 500 Club and Site Members you honestly have so much to look forward to. It is going to be an amazing 15 months and I hope you stick along for the ride.

Nothing being done here could have been done without you. That’s not guff and bluster, it’s a plain fact. Everything we have achieved to date has been done only because you have supported us. In my review I will cover the list of achievements and I’m sure, once you have read them, you will be sitting there, chest puffed out, knowing you played a huge part in it.

I will also list the things I want to get done over those 15 months. Paul, Karen et al have to keep me nailed to the floor because the list is endless….and growing (if that can be done?). A million and one ideas are flying around the old cranium and I have to be kept, reluctantly, in check!

The one thing that is certain though is that they’ll not get done if you guys and gals are not here and supporting it through subscriptions and donations. I hope you believe it is a project worthy of continued support for years to come.

Mentally I’m already on my plane for a well earned rest but before Saturday arrives I have plenty of work to prepare in readiness for November 1st, the date on which we get after the layers again and try to surpass the figures produced during the flat racing season. I hope to do that. From November 1st Post Racing Private Handicap figures will be under scrutiny. For a period of three months my top rated horse will be monitored and at the end, a report sent out to around 200,000 people who are members of a particular organisation that specialises in advising their clients of investment opportunities.

I have thought long and hard about what that might mean if things go the way they have since May 1st and having spoken to Karen and Paul it has been decided membership will be limited. Just imagine what would happen if say 10% of that 200,000 decided to join and you were all trying to get on the same horse each day. It would be silly.

More about all of this in the review and I’ll crack on with today’s work.

What you see much of now is big fields running for buttons and that’s one of the reasons I dip out now. Trainers will be throwing the kitchen sink at it and take Bath today, for instance. No fewer than 66 individual trainers have runners at the meeting…at Bath…on a Monday! Several weeks ago Bath has around 23 horses across seven races and today, it’s flooded wit horses. I have rated 114 individual horses….on a Monday. You have eight rated races to work with….on a Monday. One of two things will happen today. We’ll go out with a bang or, we we’ll knock a hole in those profits. I’m going to be optimistic!

ASSUMPTIONS

BATH – Flat (Updated:29/09/2013 at 10:22:50)
Going
Good to Firm
4mm of rain on Saturday
(GoingStick: 8.9 on Friday at 12:30)

Stalls
5f & 5.5f Middle

Weather
Forecast: Dry and breezy on Sunday.
Light rain on Monday.

HAMILTON PARK – Flat (Updated:29/09/2013 at 07:40:05)
Going
Good, Good to Soft in places
(GoingStick: 7.5 on Friday at 10:15)

Stalls
5F & 6F – Centre

Rails
All races beyond 6F at this meeting shall measure approx 25 yds
shorter than the official distances.

Weather
Dry overnight. A dry and bright forecast for today and similar
tomorrow although with a slight easterly breeze. (Max temps 17C).

* INDICATES HORSES HAVING WON PREVIOUSLY ON THE GOING AS CURRENTLY DESCRIBED
§ INDICATES HORSES PERCEIVED AS BEING BEST DRAWN

HAMILTON 2-10

*ROCK CANYON….+8
*FOL HOLLOW….+6
§*DISTANT SUN….+6
§*RED ROAR….+3
§HILLS OF DAKOTA….+2
FLOW CHART….-1
§*FROGNAL….-5
MANATEE BAY….-6
TUIBAMA….-7
PITT RIVERS….-14
MUSICAL STRIKE….-40

THREE TO DUTCH – ROCK CANYON, DISTANT SUN, RED ROAR
20/80 – ROCK CANYON
EXOTICS – ROCK CANYON, DISTANT SUN, RED ROAR
LAY – MANATEE BAY
PERCEIVED DRAW BIAS – High marginally preferred

ADVICE – Not a classic by any means and staking will be right up there with my lowest…if you see what I mean.

HAMILTON 3-40

*STEER BY THE STARS….+12
*I’M SUPER TOO….+9
LORD FRANKLIN….+/-0
*PIVOTMAN….-2
*RALPHY BOY….-2
SPES NOSTRA….-5
TECTONIC….-8
GOOD BOY JACKSON….-22
KONZERT….-40

ADVICE – Again not one I’m delirious about but my top pair have winning form on genuine good racing ground and I’ll play them to a dutch, 20/80 my top one and an exotic.

HAMILTON 4-40

§*TAJNEED….+14
§*DAWN CALLING….+12
§*BARKSTON ASH….+12
§*THE NIFTY FOX….+9
*BONNIE CHARLIE….+9
*KLYNCH….+8
LOTHAIR….+8
*SUNRAIDER….+8
*MASTER BOND….+4
*INDEGO BLUES….+1
*JUST THE TONIC….-6
§*AMENABLE….-7
§*DEFENCE COUNCIL….-13
ECONOMIC CRISIS….-19
JINKY….-27
TOWBEE….-27

THREE TO DUTCH – TAJNEED, DAWN CALLING, BARKSTON ASH
20/80 – TAJNEED
EXOTICS – TAJNEED, DAWN CALLING, BARKSTON ASH
LAY – NONE
PERCEIVED DRAW BIAS – High preferred

ADVICE – Now this is an absolute doozie of a race. Loving it. No fewer than 10 horses obtaining a plus figure and my top four having everything spot on. I’ll just work as indicated and hope I have this spot on. Don be in the least bit surprised to see my second highest rated walk away with this but I’ll stick to my guns and keep everything crossed.

HAMILTON 5-10

*A SOUTHSIDE BOY….+8
*NABURN….+8
*JAWAAB….-4
GRANDILOQUENT….-6
*VITTACHI….-14
*DEAN IARRACHT….-17
KORNGOLD….-22
*BLING KING….-24
LIGHT THE CITY….-27
GEANIE MAC….-31
CAUSEWAY FOOT….-35

ADVICE – My top three look as good a way as any to play this and that’s what I’ll do.

BATH 2-00

*MEN DON’T CRY….+9
EYELINE….+4
*IGUACU….-3
*JEWELLED DAGGER….-13
*CABUCHON….-25
HERO’S STORY….-25
GLENS WOBBLY….-26
WALTER DE LA MARE….-38
GUNG HO….-38
ILLEGALE….-40
BOOGIE DE BISPO….-40
BELL’ARTE….-40
FINALEE….-40
CAPTAIN OATS….-40

ADVICE – I will just have a straight win bet my top rated.

HAMILTON 3-30

§*BOLD CROSS….+19
§PRECISION FIVE….+16
*WOOLSTON FERRY….+13
*JEWELLED….+13
APPEASE….+9
§*LADY SYLVIA….+7
*JAN DE HEEM….+1
*KELPIE BLITZ….-3
RONALDINHO….-12
§EXCELLENT PUCK….-16
*SILVER ALLIANCE….-16
GILDED FRAME….-16
APRIL CIEL….-19
RED SHUTTLE….-23
§ONE PURSUIT….-27

THREE TO DUTCH – BOLD CROSS, PRECISION FIVE, WOOLSTON FERRY
20/80 – BOLD CROSS
EXOTICS – BOLD CROSS, PRECISION FIVE, WOOLSTON FERRY
LAY – NONE
PERCEIVED DRAW BIAS – Low just preferred

ADVICE – Now this is low grade but, a seriously competitive race. My top rated has it spot on but will those old legs get him home again? My fifth best….tissue leader…is impossible to rate accurately and it’ll be no surprise at all if he bolts in.

BATH 4-00

ROWLESTONE LAD….+8
TRAIN HARD….+8
*BONDI MIST….-1
GRAYSWOOD….-11
DUMBFOUNDED….-14
*HAL OF A LOVER….-19
RUFF LUCK….-25
SEE AND BE SEEN….-27
MANSHOOR…..-35
ZAMINATE….-37
MISTERAY….-40
TWO SUGARS….-40
OCEAN POWER….-40
MINTY FOX….-40

ADVICE – Division two of the opener here and it’s shocking stuff. October Rules!

BATH 4-30

*CROSS MY HEART….+13
*EMJAYEM….+11
§DAYLIGHT….+9
*LAGER TIME….+8
*SOMOUD….+8
*VALLARTA….+5
*EDGED OUT….-6
§KHEFYN….-9
§MARMALADY….-10
§ASK THE GURU….-11

ADVICE – It’s an 3-y-o race but as it’s last day I thought I’d give it a look. Sorry I did because it’s all over the place. The horses I feel best drawn have going issues and three of them sit at the foot of the table. I’ll know more about them for next season after this and I’ll just watch.

BATH 5-00

BURNT CREAM….+16
*ARCH WALKER….+15
SPRAY TAN….+11
*MADAME KINTYRE….+9
§LITTLE CHINA….+8
§CHRISTALIYEV….+3
*BRANDYWELL BOY….-4
§TALQAA….-10
§DIAMOND VINE….-11
MOSSGO….-15
§FLETCHER CHRISTIAN…-21
SCOMMETTITRICE….-21
COMPTON PRINCE….-32

ADVICE – I’m seeing high drawn horses as having a massive advantage here bit those drawn right have going concerns….it’s October Rules or leave well alone.

OF INTEREST

TEMPLATE (Bath 22-30) – straight win
RISING DAWN (Bath 3-00) – straight win

Have a great day and the very best of luck if you punt!

Kindest regards

Ron

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