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Today’s Ratings and Advice 29/09/13

It really does appear that October has arrived a week early, for those playing the top rated horses. We have seen a hole blown in those profits over the last few days and well done to the guy in Australia who took my advice that this was about to happen several days ago and upped stumps. He very kindly sent me his spread sheets for the period Gary was on holiday and they make for superb reading. If anyone would like them, just let me know. It’s only a very small sample but it indicates higher success rates in certain classes of racing….which I would have fully expected.

We still have two days of the flat season left, today and tomorrow. Will they produce one at a price that recoups the losses of the last few days? I have absolutely no idea.

The “sighters” I sent out yesterday for Market Rasen. The results were still very indicative of summer jumping, something I never get involved in. I did say though that what you would see is that those trainers ahead of the rest and early season pot hunting, would reveal themselves. Charlie Longsden has his on blob and he’ll saddle winners that would not achieve a high rating working as I do, which is why October is for watching only. Paper trade my figures only and you will soon spot when it’s time to go to work.

Quick look back at yesterday?

NEWMARKET 3-50

§*CODE OF HONOUR….+13 – 2ND 16/1 > 12/1
§*FIELD OF DREAM….+12
§*FORGIVE….+9
§*RED AVENGER….+8
§*FURY….+8
§*SEEK AGAIN….+8
§MARCRET….+8
§*BOONGA ROOGETA….+8
*NINE REALMS….+6
§*STRICTLY SILVER….+4
§*GRAPHIC….+2
§*PRINCE OF JOHANNE….+/-0
*THA’IR….-3
*DANCHAI….-3
§*THE RECTIFIER….-5
§*ROBERT THE PAINTER….-5
*BRONZE ANGEL….-6
*SAM SHARP….-8
*GABRIAL THE GREAT….-10
§*BELGIAN BILL….-13
§*AREA FIFTY ONE….-15
§DANCE AND DANCE….-15
§QUEENSBURY RULES….-21
§*PROUD CHIEFTAIN….-22
§ARSAADI….-23
§*TOP NOTCH TONTO….-25
§CHAPTER SEVEN….-25
§KING GEORGE RIVER….-26
*EDUCATE….-27
§ASCRIPTION….-31
*PACIFIC HEIGHTS….-35
TRES CORONAS….-38
§CAPTAIN BERTIE….-40
§KING’S WARRIOR….-40
*JACK’S REVENGE….-40

THREE TO DUTCH – CODE OF HONOUR, FIELD OF DREAM, FORGIVE
20/80 – CODE OF HONOUR
EXOTICS – CODE OF HONOUR, FIELD OF DREAM, FORGIVE
LAY – NONE
PERCEIVED DRAW BIAS – Middle/high preferred

ADVICE – They don’t come more competitive than this. Watch it back several times afterwards and see how many have “hard luck”. If I’ve got this right I’ll give it a “Clive Brittain”.

RESULT – If you have not seen the race yet, do so. You will see the unluckiest loser of a big handicap I have ever seen. Two furlongs out he had to effectively come around his entire field before running down the middle of the track and then veering left back to the rail. He was beaten a short head. He should have won pulling a caravan.

NEWMARKET 5-00

*GOLD HUNTER….+8
§*FLYMAN….+8 – 3RD 8/1
*AYAAR….+8 – WON 6/1
*MAJESTIC MOON….+5
*REGAL DAN….+5
*SPIN ARTIST….+2
§*BIRDMAN….-6
*MEZZOTINT….-7
§PIED A TERRE….-11
*SPIRITUAL STAR….-15
FRONTIER FIGHTER….-20
§TARIQ TOO….-28
§TELLOVOI….-29
HEAD OF STEAM….-35

THREE TO DUTCH – GOLD HUNTER, FLYMAN, AYAAR
20/80 – GOLD HUNTER
EXOTICS – GOLD HUNTER, FLYMAN, AYAAR
LAY – NONE
PERCEIVED DRAW BIAS – Low preferred

ADVICE – Just working with my top three to low staking.

RESULT – Dutch landed, profit banked and just 3/4 of a length away from a half decent exotic.

HAYDOCK 3-30

§*CHEVIOT….+9
BARRACUDA BOY….+9
§*MASAMAH….+9
*NOBLE STORM….+7
§*JIROFT….+1
§*SECRET ASSET….+/-0
§*LADY GIBRALTAR….-2
§*SECRET WITNESS….-6
§*DOCTOR PARKES….-6
§CONFESSIONAL….-7
§*DEMORA….-8
*FREE ZONE….-14
ELUSIVITY….-16
*BURNING THREAD….-18
§RACY….-22
BEAR BEHIND….-24
BARNET FAIR….-25

THREE TO DUTCH – CHEVIOT, MASAMAH, JIROFT
20/80 – CHEVIOT
EXOTICS – CHEVIOT, MASAMAH, JIROFT
LAY – NONE
PERCEIVED DRAW BIAS – Middle/high preferred

ADVICE – I’ll just work with the three highest rated horses having §* attributed to them.

RESULT – If Mr Fallon as riding to instructions here then what you need to do is put Cheviot in your tracker. It’s another race you need to go back and watch and I would be very interested in your thoughts.

HAYDOCK 4-05

§*HEAD SPACE….+20
§*DIMAN WATERS….+10 – NR
§*NASSAU STORM….+10
*DANCHEUR…+9
*GABBIANO….+8
§*CHEVETON….+8
§*ARCTIC FEELING….+5
*DUNGANNON….+/-0
*B FIFTY TWO….+/-0
*CHESTER ARISTOCRAT….-1
§*JACK LUEY….-7
§*TAROOQ….-8
*JOE PACKET….-11
§*BABY STRANGE….-15
*CORPORAL MADDOX….-16
§IF SO….-23
§LINE OF REASON….-27

THREE TO DUTCH – HEAD SPACE, DIMAN WATERS, NASSAU STORM
20/80 – HEAD SPACE
EXOTICS – HEAD SPACE, DIMAN WATERS, NASSAU STORM
LAY – DUNGANNON
PERCEIVED DRAW BIAS – High/middle preferred

ADVICE – I’m not looking for ghosts on the last day of the flat season for me. Top three will do and it’ll either prove profitable or I’ll lose a couple of bob.

RESULT – More than a couple of bob lost. The profits I made punting Dungannon last time have been given back. not happy.

HAYDOCK 4-40

*MISSED CALL….+11 – NR
*CHUCK REALTA….+1 – 2ND 12/1
*ELECTRA SPECTRA….-4
WALL OF SOUND….-5
*VICKSBURG….-15
*COSMIC HALO….-15
*SURENESS….-23
PRINCESS CAETANI….-30
ROSACEOUS….-31
HEAVENLY SOUND….-39

ADVICE – A race I will swerve. We have several that I cannot rate properly at all and it’s prudent to just watch.

RESULT – By virtue of “natural progression” those punting the top rated horse had another big priced one come home second. That is four such horses in the last four days and it’s made the difference between screaming past that +400 point mark and dropping further away from it.

HAYDOCK 5-15

*ZENAFIRE….+2
*VIKING STORM….-3
*SWINGING HAWK….-7 – WON 16/1
*JONNY DELTA….-9
*KIAMA BAY….-15
*THEOLOGY….-17
SUEGIOO….-24
SAPTAPADI….-33

ADVICE – Top pair dutched and that’s the only bet for me here.

RESULT – I’ve been asking myself, why did I opt to work with my top two when under normal circumstances I would – and should- have played this to October Rules. I do not have an answer….neither do I have the profits that would have been secured had I done so. Plank.

HAYDOCK 5-50

*MONT RAS….+9
*MISTER MUSIC….+9
ANTON CHIGURH….+8
*NAVAJO CHIEF….-1
*POSTSCRIPT….-3
*SANDAGIYR….-8
*BRAE HILL….-15
*CENTURIUS….-19
*BALTY BOYS….-28
SHORT SQUEEZE….-33

ADVICE – Top three dutch, 20/80 MONT RAS, and exotics…may even lay my bottom rated, too!

RESULT – I was actually in transit when this went off and didn’t see the result until I got home late last night (in bed just before midnight and back at my desk by 5-00pm….complete madness). i also wish I hadn’t looked!!

RIPON 3-45

*SPINATRIX….+12 – 2ND 7/2
*DOC HAY….+9 – WON 10/1
*EL VIENTO….+9
§*LOVE ISLAND….+8 – 4TH 14/1
§*RODRIGO DE TORRES….+8
*FAST SHOT….+8
*SUMMERINTHECITY….-1
§THUNDERBALL….-11
*CHOOSEDAY….-14
ABOVE STANDARD….-23
*SEEKING MAGIC….-25
§AL KHAN….-28

THREE TO DUTCH – DOC HAY, LOVE ISLAND, RODRIGO DE TORRES
20/80 – LOVE ISLAND
EXOTICS – DOC HAY, LOVE ISLAND, RODRIGO DE TORRES
LAY – SEEKING MAGIC
PERCEIVED DRAW BIAS – Low just preferred to high.

ADVICE – Trappy. I’m working with the to highest rated achieving §* plus my highest rated drawn “second best”.

RESULT – Well look what we have here…a winning race for me!

RIPON 4-20

*NEW YOUMZAIN….+16
*TETBURY….+13 – 2ND 8/1
*VILLA ROYALE….+1
*CHOISAN….+/-0
*SAN CASSIANO….-9
DISCAY….-14
RED CHARMER….-23
GOOD SPEECH….-25
BE PERFECT….-31
ARYIZAD….-38

ADVICE – Top two dutch, 20/80 NEW YOUMZAIN and an exotic but staking low.

RESULT – No good….nearly…but nearly is not good enough.

RIPON 5-25

*THE ART OF RACING….+12
*MISTER MANANNAN….+9
*SHARAARAH….+9
*AMBITIOUS ICARUS….+8 – WON 16/1
§*RUBY’S DAY….+8
§*PERFECT BLOSSOM….+8
§TUMBLEWIND….+5
*SILVANUS….+3
*LOST IN PARIS….-3
*BRONZE BEAU….-8
*HAAJES….-10
§SATSUMA….-11
§*WE HAVE A DREAM….-13
CAPTAIN DUNNE….-18
SUNNY SIDE UP….-22
§JINKER NOBLE….-31

THREE TO DUTCH – THE ART OF RACING, RUBY’S DAY, PERFECT BLOSSOM
20/80 – PERFECT BLOSSOM
EXOTICS – THE ART OF RACING, RUBY’S DAY, PERFECT BLOSSOM
LAY – JINKER NOBLE
PERCEIVED DRAW BIAS – High marginally preferred

ADVICE – Cracking good race to finish this card. My top rated plus the pair in my six having §*….they’ll do. I will not be heavily involved here though.

RESULT – Got the well backed favourite beaten but with my fourth highest rated winning (well done Kirsty!), it didn’t make much of a difference.

CHESTER 2-30

§*BARKSTON ASH….+10
*ANGELITO….+8 – 3RD 13/2
§*CRUISE TOTHE LIMIT….+8 – WON 13/2
*GREEN PARK….+8
§*AL MUHEER….+3 – 4TH 5/1
*MAPPIN TIME….+2
*RYLEE MOOCH….-7
*NAABEGHA….-8
§GABRIALS GIFT….-8
*PEA SHOOTER….-12
§AL’S MEMORY….-13
*CHURCH MUSIC….-15
*GATEPOST….-19
CLUBLAND….-30

THREE TO DUTCH – BARKSTON ASH, CRUISE TOTHE LIMIT, AL MUHEER
20/80 – CRUISE TOTHE LIMIT
EXOTICS – BARKSTON ASH, CRUISE TOTHE LIMIT, AL MUHEER
LAY – GABRIAL’S GIFT
PERCEIVED DRAW BIAS – Low preferred

ADVICE – Three in my top six having draw/ground right and they’ll suffice. I have opted to play CRUISE TOTHE LIMIT 20/80 because he’s got that previous course win under his belt.

RESULT – Got a cracker out of this one….thankfully!

CHESTER 4-50

§*OCEAN TEMPEST….+14 – WON 11/4
§*RUSTY ROCKET….+12
§*DR RED EYE….+9
*COUNTRY WESTERN….+8
§*MONSIEUR CHEVALIER….+8
*LAFFAN….+5
*CHOSEN CHARACTER….-1
*ALEJANDRO….-3
*GRANDALAK….-4
*ZACYNTHUS….-7
SORELLA BELLA….-19
*WANNABE KING….-20
§RENE MATHIS….-24
APOSTLE….-30

THREE TO DUTCH – OCEAN TEMPEST, RUSTY ROCKET, DR RED EYE
20/80 – OCEAN TEMPEST
EXOTICS – OCEAN TEMPEST, RUSTY ROCKET, DR RED EYE
LAY – RENE MATHIS
PERCEIVED DRAW BIAS – Low preferred

RESULT – Chester was really good to me yesterday. A double whammy secured here….top rated winner and a lay beaten.

TODAY

ASSUMPTIONS:

EPSOM DOWNS – Flat (Updated:29/09/2013 at 06:27:58)
Going
Good
(GoingStick: 7.6 on Saturday at 09:00)

Stalls
1m 4f – Centre

Rails
Railed out up to 7 yards from 1m to winning post – adding 21
yards to races of 1m and over, and 15 yards to 7f races.

Weather
0.6mm rain overnight. Dry, breezy day expected – 18 degrees.

MUSSELBURGH – Flat (Updated:29/09/2013 at 06:52:36)
Going
Good to Firm
(GoingStick: 8.1 on Sunday at 06:45)

Stalls
2m and 5f Stands Side

Rails
Home bend moved out 2 meters

Weather
Bright Cool AM Heavy Dew
Sunday – Long Sunny Spells Breezy later 15c

* INDICATES HORSES HAVING WON PREVIOUSLY ON THE GOING AS CURRENTLY DESCRIBED
§ INDICATES HORSES PERCEIVED AS BEING BEST DRAWN

EPSOM 3-55

*WEAPON OF CHOICE….+8
BENZANNO….+5
*VERSE OF LOVE….+4
*BEEDEE….+3
*BROUGHTON….-9
*AUSSIE REIGNS….-10
SORYAH….-13
EX ORIENTE….-16
CASHPOINT….-23
TAKEITFROMALADY….-29
CAYUGA….-35

ADVICE – I’ll just dutch rated horses 1, 3 and 4, have a small 20/80 my top one and teedly exotics.

EPSOM 5-30

§*BROCKLEBANK….+27
*OLNEY LASS….+20
§LUNAR DEITY….+12
PRINCE REGAL….+10
*KYLLACHY RISE….+10
IPTISAM….+10
*MY KINGDOM….+9
*CONRY….-6
§INTIMIDATE….-14
§OPERATION CHARIOT….-15
*MEANDMYSHADOW….-16
§INTOMIST….-21
STRICTLY SILCA….-25
KAMCHATKA….-26
§JACKIE LOVE….-30

ADVICE – I’m just going to have a decent 20/80 my top one. The horse has so much going for it that it looks like a bet that is to good to be true. If only life was like that.

MUSSELBURGH 3-35

*ODDYSEY….+14
*ACT YOUR SHOE SIZE….+8
KICKINGTHELILLY….+8
LIGHT ROSE….-5
*ELLE WOODS….-7
*SIMPLY SHINING….-7
*HOT ROD MAMMA….-15
HOW’S LIFE….-21
COINCIDENTLY….-35

ADVICE – Just a top two dutch for me.

MUSSELBURGH 4-10

*COSMIC SUN….+8
GUISING….+6
*MERCHANT OF DUBAI….+6
SCATTER DICE….-3
*HAWDYERWHEESHT….-9
*ALCAEUS….-10
MUNTASIR….-15

ADVICE – Again, I’ll just have a small dutch my top pair.

MUSSELBURGH 4-45

*TUSSIE MUSSIE….+10
*TECTONIC….-2
*ROYAL STRAIGHT….-10
BERLUSCA….-10
*TITUS BOLT….-14
*YORKSTERS PRINCE….-20
PLUNDER….-22
UP TEN DOWN TWO….-25

ADVICE – Yep….same again.

OF INTEREST

SECRET APPLAUSE (Musselburgh 2-00) – 20/80

I have eight rated races to offer up tomorrow and then that’s more or less it for the flat. From tuesday onwards it’s purely NH racing and sighters being prepared. As mentioned earlier, you will see simply from paper trading when it is time to get punting again so fingers crossed the winter is as good as the summer was….I’m looking for it to be even better.

Today I have family over for our farewell curry night. We are off on our holiday next Saturday and with Liverpool live on telly I thought we should make a meal of it. the grandkids will be wanting pocket money in advance, too and if that’s not sorted then I guarantee you I’d receive an invoice from the lad!

Have a great day and the very best of luck.

Kindest regards

Ron

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