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Today’s Ratings and Advice 25/09/13

It is now feeling very end of season and winner finding yesterday was not easy. My Carlisle figures were not bad and I myself picked up a few bits and pieces but those punting top rated have had two successive blank days now and I’ve no idea what will happen today.

It has been a long busy season for a lot of these horses and they’ll be looking forward to their rest as much as I am to mine. Nine more days….I cannot wait!

You will not be neglected whilst we are away though and we’ll be accessing e-mails etc so if you need anything, just holler.

I’ll be preparing Newsletters to go out daily, too. They’ll contain details of horses you should be note booking for the winter. I’ll be looking at the next day of racing each morning and if I spot anything you should be made aware of, I’ll be sure to let you know.

The only thing I’ll not be doing for those two weeks is getting up at 5-00am!

Today:

Assumptions:

GOODWOOD – Flat (Updated:25/09/2013 at 07:37:12)
Going
Straight Good to Soft Good in Places. Round Course Good.
(GoingStick: 7.3 on Wednesday at 07:30)

Stalls
Straight Course Stand Side. Round Course inside except

Rails
The Running Rail from the 6 furlong marker on the Lower
Bend to the Winning Post has been dolled out approximately
7 yards. Increasings distances by about 10 yards.
The Top bend is dolled 3 yards increasing distances by 5
yards to Races run on that course.

Weather
Dry over night and today.

REDCAR – Flat (Updated:25/09/2013 at 06:47:43)
Going
Good, Good to Firm in Places
(GoingStick: 8.1 on Sunday at 09:00)

Stalls
Stalls positions: Straight Course – Centre; Round Course –

Weather
Weather – dry overnight but cool damp and misty with fog
forecast for later this morning and a maximum of +14C.

• * indicates horses having won previously on the going as currently described
• § indicates horses perceived as being best drawn

GOODWOOD 3-05

*GOSPEL CHOIR….+10
DUKE OF CLARENCE….-1
*BLUE SURF….-4
MISTER IMPATIENCE….-17
PEARL CASTLE….-22
CHARLES CAMOIN….-33
HAYLAMAN….-38

ADVICE – I’ll just have a straight win play my top rated.

GOODWOOD 4-50

§*JUNGLE BAY….+7
*AYE AYE DIGBY….+6
§*PIDDIE’S POWER….+1
*TIDENTIME….-5
*BRAVO ECHO….-6
*SLIP SLIDING AWAY….-9
§FAT GARY….-13
*SASKIA’S DREAM….-14
*DILGURA….-17
§JOEY’S DESTINY….-18
§DOMINIUM….-20
*ROWE PARK….-23
§JOHNNY CASTLE….-24
TIDAL’S BABY….-28
APRICOT SKY….-31
PRINCE OF BURMA….-40

TWO TO DUTCH – JUNGLE BAY, PIDDIE’S POWER
20/80 – JUNGLE BAY
EXOTICS – JUNGLE BAY, PIDDIE’S POWER
LAY – SLIP SLIDING AWAY
PERCEIVED DRAW BIAS – Low a “must have”

ADVICE – The way I’m looking at this race is, if you are not drawn low….1-6….then you are going to struggle. I have just two in my top six drawn where I want them, one tops my figures and so I’m just going to work with that duo.

REDCAR 3-50

§*MANDY LAYLA….+8
*BEAU MISTRAL….+5
§*COMMANCHE RAIDER….+4
§*CHOC’A’MOCA….+1
LADY POPPY….+/-0
§ELAND ALLY….-2
§*RED ROAR….-3
§MOTHER JONES….-3
*TOM SAWYER….-5
TUIBAMA….-5
*ON THE HIGH TOPS….-7
ALIS AQUILAE….-9
MITCHELL….-14
KYZER CHIEF….-22
§MARABOUT….-23
ACE MASTER….-25

THREE TO DUTCH – MANDY LAYLA, COMMANCHE RAIDER, CHOC’A’MOCA
20/80 – MANDY LAYLA
EXOTICS – MANDY LAYLA, COMMANCHE RAIDER, CHOC’A’MOCA
LAY – TOM SAWYER
PERCEIVED DRAW BIAS – Middle drawn spot on.

ADVICE – Low grade, big fields and anything could happen….and probably will. I’ve three in my top four marked §*…they get the gig at this end.

REDCAR 4-25

*UNEX MICHELANGELO….+9
*DYNASTIC….+1
*ROCK SUPREME….-2
§*BROCKFIELD….-4
*DEMOLITION….-4
WYLDFIRE….-8
§*EBONY EXPRESS….-16
GRAN MAESTRO….-16
§COINCIDENTLY….-24
§RETURNTOBRECONGILL….-31
§TANAWAR….-32
NORDIC QUEST….-34
PROPHESY….-40
NELSON’S BAY….-40

THREE TO DUTCH – UNEX MICHELANGELO, DYNASTIC, ROCK SUPREME
STRAIGHT WIN – UNEX MICHELANGELO
EXOTICS – UNEX MICHELANGELO, DYNASTIC, ROCK SUPREME
LAY – NONE
PERCEIVED DRAW BIAS – Low looks best but those drawn there do not.

ADVICE – I’m simply going to work with my top three. I do see low drawn as being preferred but they’ll need to improve to take advantage of their good fortune.

REDCAR 5-30

*WYATT EARP….+8
*LITTLE JIMMY ODSOX….+8
*THATCHERITE….+1
*MUSIC FESTIVAL….-1
§*DONE DREAMING….-8
*PAVERS STAR….-11
§ABRAHAM MONRO….-11
§*BAYBESHAMBLES….-13
*FATHOM FIVE….-21
§*MERCERS ROW….-25
LUCY MINAJ….-27
§SPOKEN WORDS….-28
AD VITAM….-29
MAAKIRR….-35

THREE TO DUTCH – LITTLE JIMMY ODSOX, THATCHERITE, DONE DREAMING
20/80 – LITTLE JIMMY ODSOX
EXOTICS – LITTLE JIMMY ODSOX, THATCHERITE, DONE DREAMING
LAY – NONE
PERCEIVED DRAW BIAS – Middle marginally preferred

ADVICE – Both legs of this contest, the second leg below, have as much punting appeal as the gift of a pet tarantula would have to an arachnophobe. I’ll just play as indicated to October Rules levels of staking and if my top rated wins this, I’ll bare my backside in Burtons window.

REDCAR 6-05

§*ORWELLIAN….+9
*EMILY HALL….+3
§*HAADEETH….-9
*AMIS REUNIS….-13
§*LEES ANTHEM….-14
ALLURING STAR….-14
§BLACK DOUGLAS….-16
*VERUS DELICIA….-19
§THE KICKING LORD….-22
BELINSKY….-27
NICEONEMYSON….-28
DURHAM EXPRESS….-30
PISTE….-40

THREE TO DUTCH – ORWELLIAN, HAADEETH, LEES ANTHEM
20/80 – ORWELLIAN
EXOTICS – ORWELLIAN, HAADEETH, LEES ANTHEM
LAY – BLACK DOUGLAS
PERCEIVED DRAW BIAS – Middle again marginally preferred but even less than for that race above.

ADVICE – Just horrible stuff and it’s the same modus operandi here….my lay sits 7th best and if one above comes out, no lay.

OF INTEREST

If you have been listening to the podcasts you will know we have been waiting for a Sir Michael Stoute trained grey 2-y-o, owned by Juddmonte, to hit the racecourse. Sean had done a fair bit of digging and midweek we were all aware that IDEA was racing in the Goodwood 2-00. I have mentioned many times in the past that when he sends a two year old to this track, he is thinking of the Derby. He has saddled just 15 two year olds here in the last five years but, in this race today, he bungs three in.

From a draw perspective ARBAAB appeals most, a high draw on this track akin to leg irons. IDEA has been given 10. However, Paul Hanagan cannot ride this track to save his life, just six winners from 138 rides.

James Doyle, who rides IDEA, also needs SatNav here, jut seven winners from 84 rides.

Ryan Moore rides Sir Michael’s other runner, MATRAVERS and now he does know his way around Goodwood….but drawn 15 of 15?….

ARBAAB has the Derby entry and for me he’s the main one of the three….but Hanagan?

I’ll just watch.

ALPHA DELTA WHISKY (Goodwood 5-20) – 20/80
BEAUTIFUL FOREST (Redcar 2-10) – straight win
DARLING BOYZ (Redcar 2-40) – 20/80

Have a great day and the very best of luck if you get involved

Kindest regards

Ron

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