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Today’s Ratings and Advice 17/09/13

I think it fair to say yesterday was simply an exceptional day of punting. Hands up, I didn’t expect it on a mucky Monday and I especially didn’t expect it at a track like Brighton. Five rated races, four top rated winners and the other coming home in second place. What that now means is, we sit +348.75 points up, playing that top rated horse alone, level point stake, to BFSP (before commissions). Absolutely sensational…..and yet, some are still not happy.

The one thing I have learned these past two years is that is most definitely takes all sorts to make a world. I have learned that no matter what I do, I will not please everyone. I guess it’s like everything else in life, as I explained to my e-mailer yesterday. If you do not like something, you have the choice to leave it. I suggested that if I did not like marmalade, I would simply not eat marmalade. I would not write to the manufacturers of marmalade telling them I didn’t like it. Most people do like it. Some days it probably tastes better than on other days (I’m a honey man myself but lob some ginger into marmalade, I’ll eat it), and what I do is absolutely no different to the makers of marmalade. I have my ingredients, I mix ’em up, a product comes out the other end and sometimes it’ll be better than others, because that’s the way of things. Yesterday my marmalade was simply gorgeous….today?

I was advised I’m spreading myself to thinly, I should be concentrating on only racing, because that’s what I’m good at.

I have been advising everyone, since the first week in May, when it became obvious we were going to have a good time of it, that you only need to look at punting the top rated horse and punt it. We sit near +350 points up using that methodology and that has been achieved in less than five months. Not bad for “thinly spread”.

He was asking what happened to the Betfair Challenge, presumably because that was contained within the free Newsletter? Well, I looked at that after a few days and simply thought, it’s not going to be that simple, finding a horse per day to lay or play and so, I decided not to knock myself out over it. Novelty bets are all well and good and I stuck with the e.w. double because that’s much simpler to cover each day and it has not done to badly.

So, if you like marmalade, stick along for the ride, if not, go find some jam and see if that suits you better. That’s what I would do. I’ll not be offended.

They used to have a game on Talksport – brown sauce, red sauce – same thing applies to everything else you will ever do whilst waiting to shuttle off the old mortal coil and you’ll find yourself to be a much happier person if you don’t complain about what you don’t like, and concentrate on enjoying what you do like.

Assumptions:

CHEPSTOW – Flat (Updated:17/09/2013 at 06:37:08)
Going
Good to Soft
Dry overnight
(7mm of rain on Sunday)
(GoingStick: 6.6 on Tuesday at 06:00)

Stalls
Straight Course (6f & 7f) Middle

Weather
Forecast: A dry start, then rain from mid-morning, 3-5mm.

THIRSK – Flat (Updated:17/09/2013 at 06:34:39)
Going
GOOD to SOFT
(GoingStick: 7.5 on Monday at 13:00)

Stalls
Straight Course: Stands Side

Rails
Home bend dolled-out to provide fresh ground, adding circa 8
yards to the 7f, 1m and 1m4f distances.

Weather
Dry overnight. Possibility of light rain during racing,
otherwise fair but cool.

YARMOUTH – Flat (Updated:17/09/2013 at 06:53:03)
Going
Soft,Good to soft in places
(GoingStick: 6.4 on Tuesday at 06:45)

Stalls
Straight – Middle, 1m3f-Inside, 1m6f-Middle

Rails
The Middle of the course has been vertidrained since the last
meeting. Full course to be raced on in back straight.

Weather
Dry overnight. Forecast is for a clear dry morning, a possibility
of ashower this afternoon.

* indicates horses having won previously on the going as currently described
§ indicates horses perceived as being best drawn

YARMOUTH 4-30

MUTANAWEB….+11
*GABRIAL’S STAR….+9
WATERED SILK….+2
*ATTWAAL….-2
KENT RAGSTONE….-17
MAWAAKEF….-22
SHELFORD….-23
SIGN MANUAL….-26

ADVICE – Here we have a horse, KENT RAGSTONE, currently trading favourite after just two runs on the all weather, coming back off a break of 174 days, in a competitive little handicap being run over 14 furlongs on soft ground. Throw some chunky cut orange into this mix….the trainer said “way back then” that he could not have run this horse in a Bumper because of likely soft ground….so he brings him to Yarmouth today, where the ground is soft. I’m already not liking the taste of this one. Looks a potential bad batch to me but who knows what will come out the other end? My top rated has had just four runs and it could be he’s been waiting for a step up in trip on soft but we’ll only have light shed on this come the finishing time. Common sense play – GABRIAL’S STAR….already won over the trip and likes soft ground.

YARMOUTH 5-30

SMOKETHATTHUNDERS….+4
*R WOODY….+/-0
*BILLY RED….+/-0
PIXILIATED….-11
*FIRST IN COMMAND….-13
PEACE SEEKER….-17
ROYAL BAJAN….-22
EXOTIC GUEST….-23
BADDILINI….-29

ADVICE – My top rated has only had four runs on turf to date, won one on good to firm, unplaced on sole run on soft. Common sense play – R WOODY….if you think backing a horse that was withdrawn on a vets certificate at Brighton yesterday a common sense play? I might just watch this one.

THIRSK 3-40

§*CELTIC SIXPENCE….+12
*FIELDGUNNER KIRKUP….+12
§*SNOW BAY….+11
§*AL MUHEER….+9
§*KLYNCH….+8
*GREEN PARK….+8
*SOLAR SPIRIT….+8
§*GOURAY GIRL….+2
OUR BOY JACK….-1
WEST LEAKE HARE….-4
§SHOWBOATING….-9
*SUNRAIDER….-16
LASTCHANCELUCAS….-16
OIL STRIKE….-19

THREE TO DUTCH – CELTIC SIXPENCE, SNOW BAY, AL MUHEER
20/80 – CELTIC SIXPENCE
EXOTICS – CELTIC SIXPENCE, SNOW BAY, AL MUHEER
LAY – NONE
PERCEIVED DRAW BIAS – Low best but not a lot in it.

ADVICE – A proper race. This is what I enjoy most, trying to pick the bones of a decent field handicap where most have a chance. I have eight runners achieving a + figure, the eighth best carrying everything right with regards draw and ground. For me though it’s inside my top six I look for my winner and my top rated looks the play.

THIRSK 5-15

*WHITE NILE….+9
*AMAZE….-4
WAVERUNNER….-9
*NEXT EDITION….-13
WAR POET….-15
BRAVEHEART MOVE….-20
ERIC THE GREY….-30
PICALILY….-40

ADVICE – I am happy to work with just my top one straight win, have a potter about with a top three dutch and set up exotics.

CHEPSTOW 4-50

*ASTRA HALL….+12
*RUTHERGLEN….+11
*HAMILTON HILL….+6
*TAKEITFROMALADY….-12
*PRINCESS CAETANI….-17
PHOENIX FLIGHT….-33
CEANNLINE….-34
BURNT SIENNA….-40

ADVICE – If the winner is outside my top pair it’s curtains for the shekels. Dutch, 20/80 ASTRA HALL and an exotic. If I’m miles ahead by this time then HAMILTON HALL in for tricasts.

CHEPSTOW 5-20

*APRIL CIEL….+4
*MONOPOLI….+1
EVERMORE….-4
BE MY ROCK….-8
STOCKHILL DIVA….-8
HALLINGHAM….-16
ARTE DEL CALCIO….-31
PETERSBODEN….-33
APHRODITE SPIRIT….-34
HYPATIA….-40

ADVICE – Rated horses 3 & 5 are impossible to get a handle on. I will just play to my October Rules.

CHEPSTOW 5-50

*HIGHLIFE DANCER….+9
BELLE PARK….+8
*BOLD DUKE….-4
*GREYEMKAY….-7
DESCARO….-15
WATCHEROFTHESLIES….-17
POLYDAMOS….-21
PRESENT DAY….-26
BANREENAHREENKAH….-29
ONE FOR JOULES….-40

ADVICE – I’ll be punting this in exactly the same way, Both divisions are seriously weak and lacking in talent

OF INTEREST

HIGH MASTER
(Chepstow 2-20) – straight win
DIFFIDENT BEATS
(Thirsk 2-40) – 20/80
NURPUR
(Thirsk 3-10) – straight win
SWEHAN
(Thirsk 4-45) – 20/80

THE E.W. DOUBLE

ASTRA HALL
(Chepstow 4-50)
WHITE NILE
(Thirsk 5-15)

Have a great day and best of luck if you get involved.

Kindest regards

Ron

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