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Today’s Ratings and Advice 12/09/13

Cannot be anything but pleased with my figures for Doncaster yesterday, one race, one top rated winner. I didn’t know what to make of the ground though. It was never declared anything worse than good to soft and good to firm horses were 2nd & 3rd in the race I had decided would be my marker (the 3-00), and my fancy for that 4-45, Gold Hunter, ran a cracker to finish 3rd in the 4-45 so I didn’t feel uncomfortable about Sir Pedro at all and in he whizzed.

Carlisle however, was a different kettle of fish. The going was changed to soft after race one and it was then simply a case of waiting for the 5-05 and 5-35, as the ones I myself fancied were going to be at home on that. However it was only the “80’s” that were landed as first Dutch rose gone done a nose @ 5/1 and then First Class Favour got collared inside the final furlong, finishing 3rd @ 16/1, beaten less than half a length.

Those punting just that top rated horse edged a little closer to the +400 but it really is going to be difficult reaching it if this weather keeps up.

Today we have another six chances of climbing that ladder though and fingers crossed we eke a tad more profit out of the game.

Assumptions:

CHEPSTOW – Flat (Updated:12/09/2013 at 06:29:51)
Going
Good, Good to Soft in places
4mm of rain overnight
(GoingStick: 7.1 on Thursday at 06:00)

Stalls
Straight Course (5f to 1m) Middle

Weather
Forecast: Mainly dry with sunny spells, max temp 19C.

DONCASTER – Flat (Updated:12/09/2013 at 07:06:18)
Going
Good to Soft
(GoingStick: 7.1 on Wednesday at 08:30)

Stalls
Straight course Stands side

Weather
Sunday Light rain shower 0.2mm temp high +16c.
Monday 4mm of rainfall temp high +17.
Tuesday 0.2mm of rainfall temp high +14c.
Wednesday 4mm of rainfall temp high+16c.
Thursday Dry temp high +20c. 90% chance
of a rain overnight 4mm-8mm.
Friday Dry temp high +15c .
Saturday possible showers 4mm temp high +17c.

Other
The track has been verti drained prior to this meeting

EPSOM DOWNS – Flat (Updated:12/09/2013 at 06:37:51)
Going
Good to Soft, Good in places
(GoingStick: 7.4 on Wednesday at 13:00)

Stalls
6f – Outside

Rails
Inner (Derby) line, other than slight dolling out (2 yards) at
foot of Tattenham Corner – race distances unaltered.

Weather
3mm rain Wednesday evening – dry since 10pm and dry day expected
Thursday.

* indicates horses having won previously on the going as currently described
§ indicates horses perceived as being best drawn

DONCASTER 4-25

§*IF SO….+19
§TAROOQ….+12
MUTHMIR….+11
§*LOVE ISLAND….+9
§MAYAASEM….+8
*BABY STRANGE….+5
DARK CASTLE….+3
§*ENDERBY SPIRIT….+2
§THUNDERBALL….+/-0
*FAIRWAY TO HEAVEN….-2
*PEARL ICE….-4
*JACK LUEY….-15
§SHAFAANI….-15
SALOOMY….-21
ARCTIC FEELING….-22
WEST LEAKE DIMAN….-24
AL KHAN….-25
§LINE OF REASON….-28
ZACYNTHUS….-30
ROCKET ROB….-33
B FIFTY TWO….-38
LUPO D’ORO….-40

THREE TO DUTCH – IF SO, LOVE ISLAND, BABY STRANGE
20/80 – IF SO
EXOTICS – IF SO, LOVE ISLAND, BABY STRANGE
LAY – DARK CASTLE
PERCEIVED DRAW BIAS – High preferred

ADVICE – I really do like everything about my top rated. Ground and daw absolutely spot on, trainer in form, jockey 2-2 for the trainer here, and it all looks to good to be true….we’ll see, eh.

DONCASTER 5-00

§PROUD CHIEFTAIN….+16
§GREEK WAR….+14
*THA’IR….+13
§*VIEWPOINT….+12
§*SENNOCKIAN STAR….+9
BLACK SPIRIT….+8
*CLON BRULEE….-4
CONDUCT….-5
*RESURGE….-8
SPIFER….-9
§OTTOMAN EMPIRE….-17
CLASSIC PUNCH….-17
HOT BED….-28
AUSSIE REIGNS….-35

THREE TO DUTCH – THA’IR, VIEWPOINT, SENNOCKIAN STAR
20/80 – VIEWPOINT
EXOTICS – THA’IR, VIEWPOINT, SENNOCKIAN STAR
LAY – NONE
PERCEIVED DRAW BIAS – Low drawn much preferred

ADVICE – My top pair are boxed great but have going issues. I’ll work with the three directly below them and take the one highest rated that I believe has draw and going “right”.

EPSOM 4-35

§SARANGOO….+10
*TIDENTIME….+9
*PICENO….+8
§*MY KINGDOM….+6
*SWIFT CEDAR….+3
*SHARP AND SMART….-5
*BROCKLEBANK….-9
§PILATES….-10
OCEAN APPLAUSE….-15
INTOMIST….-21
§TOP COP….-25
ABIGAILS ANGEL….-28

THREE TO DUTCH – SARANGOO, TIDENTIME, MY KINGDOM
20/80 – TIDENTIME
EXOTICS – SARANGOO, TIDENTIME, MY KINGDOM
LAY – NONE
PERCEIVED DRAW BIAS – Middle best

ADVICE – I should really be looking to lay PILATES but given she’s an improving Mark Johnston 3-y-o that’s swerved, despite my thinking the ground is wrong for her. It is not a race I’m overly keen on punting and staking will be low.

CHEPSTOW 4-45

*BANKROLL….+1
*JARROW….-6
SPINNING RIDGE….-13
*THE NAME IS FRANK….-19
JUST ISLA….-23
ISHIAMIRACLE….-27
COPPER TRADE….-32
THEWESTWALIAN….-35
COPPER TO GOLD….-40
GAME ALL….-40
BLACKAMOOR HARRY….-40

ADVICE – Both divisions of this race will be treated like plague. No bet races for me.

CHEPSTOW 5-20

*OLNEY LASS….+10
*GEORGE BENJAMIN….-8
*DANCING WELCOME….-12
VIENNESE VERSE….-17
LORAINE….-18
CHEERS BIG EARS….-19
MONSIEUR PONTHAVEN….-33
TWO NO BIDS….-37
COMPTON PRINCE….-37
SERAPHIEL….-40

CHEPSTOW 5-50

SIMPLE JOYS….+15
WILY FOX….+13
§MOTION LASS….+11
§EBONY ROC….+8
§ON STAGE….+7
FLAMINGO BEAT….+6
*APRIL CIEL….+4
*MISSIONAIRE….+2
CUCKOO ROCK….-5
§MUSKAT LINK….-17
§PADDY’S SALTANTES….-26
EIGHTFOLD….-29
CABUCHON….-38
STAR OF MAYFAIR….-40
§BALADY….-40
§HIGHWAY CODE….-40
ROWLESTONE LAD….-40

THREE TO DUTCH – SIMPLE JOYS, MOTION LASS, EBONY ROC
20/80 – MOTION LASS
EXOTICS – SIMPLE JOYS, MOTION LASS, EBONY ROC
LAY – NONE
PERCEIVED DRAW BIAS – High preferred

ADVICE – This is a cracker for a Class 6 jobby. I’m taking my top rated, who is unexposed, with two I believe to be best drawn, from my top six, for nothing more than an October rules level of staking.

OF INTEREST

ZURIGHA (Doncaster 2-10) – 20/80

Have a great day and the very best of luck if you are punting.

Kindest regards

Ron

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